The Analyst
1.4K posts

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@juliandorey I am sure she could use some psycological help. That look is not normal with humble apology.
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if erika kirk truly is just a grieving widow and not actually a bad person (which is now becoming harder and harder to believe)…
then somebody around her WHO CARES needs to tell her the following:
1) her disposition is totally unlikable
2) her delivery is completely untrustworthy
3) every time she opens her mouth, she digs herself a bigger hole
i would rather not tell a widow how to grieve, but i would advise a wanna-be, astroturfed “CEO” to go home and spend some more time with her kids she claims to love so much

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@TheRabbitHole Seems like, the world's largest minority in that big red patch doesn't feel safe from a hardliner majority.
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Did you know the longest winning streak in ALL of professional sports history doesn't belong to Muhammad Ali, Michael Jordan, or Roger Federer?
It belongs to a boy from Karachi who doctors said should never exercise.
Jahangir Khan. Pakistani squash player. 555 consecutive wins. 5 years. 8 months. Undefeated.
The world forgot to tell his story. We won't. 🇵🇰

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@DannyKPolitics Definitely a below the belt move raising questions on neutrality of the platform. I hope @elonmusk is noticing such things.
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EXCLUSIVE. Part two of the Nikita Bier investigation is up.
January 9, 2026: a stranger asked Bier to change the Iranian flag emoji on X. He replied: “Give me a few hours.”
By end of day, an X engineer had pushed a commit replacing the Islamic Republic’s flag with the pre-1979 Pahlavi Lion and Sun across the entire platform — including on the accounts of Iranian state media and the Supreme Leader.
No legal review. No risk assessment for Iranian users inside Iran, where displaying Pahlavi-era symbols has been used as evidence in regime prosecutions. No published rationale.
The flag incident is one in a documented pattern: the August “Christian bot bio” comment that preceded a 1.7M account purge, the deleted CT post admitting algorithmic reach rationing, the home-region weighting reversed in six hours, the aggregator cuts hitting creators across the political spectrum.
Full piece, with the commit hash, the receipts, and the affected creators:
open.substack.com/pub/dannykpoli…
DMs open for sources.

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@najam_ali One good thing this war has done is incentivise the US to rethink their Israel strategy which has been plaguing them since decades.
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In markets, when you take a risky bet, you set a stop loss.
This war seems to have had none.
The U.S. and Israel went in assuming there was no downside.
If they pull back, the loss to their credibility is enormous.
If they escalate by targeting Iran’s infrastructure, the consequences for the region, and eventually for themselves, could be far worse.
What looked like strength at the start
now looks like a position without an exit.
There is no easy or dignified way out, only a choice between a bad option and a worse one.
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@XFreeze It does open up backdoors to controlling humans with neuralink embedded. With now even block chain security being on risk as time passes. There will always be there who penetrate encryptions.
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Corruption in Ukraine.
Girlfriend of Deputy Prosecutor General.
Verbitsky - fired after illicit enrichment accusations by Anti-corruption agencies. They found illegal assets worth more than $2'000'000 linked to him.
But, he didn’t go to prison - he continues raising charity money, living in house for 1,000,000+ and driving a Ferrari. His girlfriend drives Porsche.
Zelensky is mafia. They steal everything and never go to jail.
They need a war and your money.
AUDIT UKRAINE!

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@ns123abc Elon needs to win for the sake of humanity. Power with lack of wisdom comes with disasters.
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@StateDept How average iranians must be perceiving it after attack on civilian infrastructure: They would not be victims anymore under the same regime if the regime gives back uranium and goes on petro dollar equation and gives up its detterrance capabilities.
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@theobjectivist And you totally forgot that the damage to gulf would literally crash the oil infrastructure and hurt the petro dollar equation which is benefitting the US. Another global AI race for AGI is ongoing and US needs all the investments from the gulf countries to counter China.
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@theobjectivist Firstly you can call this a strategy but it is difficult to conclusively say that it is objectivist strategy. Secondly the straits inherent narrowness gives lesser mobility to marine vessels and destroyers alike. While Iran will have the whole coastline with easy deterrance.(1/2)
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This is why wars should be run by strategists, not deal makers. A deal maker looks for the exit. An objective strategist eliminates the need for one.
Why the current approach fails and what should replace it:
The fundamental problem is that Trump is trying to negotiate with a regime that has no incentive to negotiate honestly and every incentive to stall. The ceasefire benefits Iran exclusively. They were getting pounded for six weeks. The moment bombing stopped, they regrouped, are now meeting with Putin, and declared the US achieved "not a single" war goal.
Bolton is right: you do not relieve pressure on a regime that was breaking apart.
The political clock:
Democrats could take the House in November 2026. If that happens, War Powers resolutions, funding restrictions, and impeachment threats become real constraints. Four similar measures already failed in March 2026 but only because Republicans held the majority. Trump has roughly six months of unimpeded executive action remaining. Every week of ceasefire is a week closer to losing that window.
The Rational strategic objective:
The goal is not a deal. The goal is the permanent elimination of the Iranian regime's ability to threaten American lives. This means the IRGC command structure, remaining missile capability (still 50% of launchers and 40% of drones per US intelligence), the Bushehr plutonium stockpile (enough for 200 weapons per Bolton's estimate), and the ideological apparatus that will rebuild everything the moment pressure lifts.
Recommended strategy in four phases:
Phase 1: End the ceasefire immediately and resume strikes (Week 1-2). Target remaining IRGC leadership systematically. The command structure has already been decapitated at the top level but replacement leaders are "just as radical" per Bolton. Continue down the chain. Target the underground tunnel infrastructure that protects 50% of remaining missile launchers. Deploy the B-2 bombers that created the "nuclear dust" from enrichment sites against the Bushehr reactor spent fuel before it can be processed for plutonium. Three carrier strike groups are already in position, the largest US naval deployment in the Middle East since 2003. Use them.
Phase 2: Intensify the blockade while bombing (Week 2-4). The blockade is costing Iran $435 million per day. The IMF projects 69% inflation and 6.1% GDP contraction. Two million jobs already lost. Consumer prices up 40%. The rial is in freefall. Fortune reports hyperinflation may be imminent. Analysts project Iran has two to three months before oil storage forces production shutdowns. The economic pressure is real but it must be combined with military pressure, not substituted for it. The blockade alone gives Iran time to regroup militarily. Both of these simultaneously give them NO room.
Phase 3: Destroy Hormuz threat capability (Week 2-6). The IRGC Navy, which operates 1,000-3,000 fast attack boats for swarm tactics, still controls 60% of its pre-war capability. These are the boats laying mines and attacking commercial shipping during the ceasefire. They operate from dispersed coastal positions. Systematically eliminate every IRGC naval base, every fast boat staging area, and every coastal facility. Clear the mines. Escort commercial shipping through the strait with naval convoys until the threat is eliminated. The USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group just arrived, giving three carriers in theater. Use all three.
Phase 4: Support internal opposition (Concurrent). Iran was already on the verge of collapse before the war. The January 2026 protests were the largest since 1979. The government massacred thousands of its own people. The economy was already broken. Seven million Iranians were going hungry before the first bomb fell. 57% were experiencing malnutrition. The blockade and continued strikes push this toward a breaking point. Provide covert support to opposition groups. Broadcast into Iran. Make clear that the war ends when the regime ends, not when a piece of paper is signed.
Phase 5: Do not nation build. When the regime falls, leave. America's obligation ends when the threat ends. What Iranians build afterward is their responsibility. Do not occupy. Do not install a government. Do not spend a decade rebuilding what the regime destroyed.
What this avoids:
American ground troops. At no point does this strategy require boots on the ground in Iran. This is an air, naval, and economic campaign combined with internal pressure. It leverages the three carrier strike groups already deployed, the air dominance already achieved (the US is flying non-stealth B-1 bombers over Iranian airspace with impunity), and the economic devastation already underway.
What the current strategy produces:
A deal that leaves the regime intact. A pattern identical to every previous deal with Iran. A regime that rebuilds its capabilities over 5-10 years. A future president who faces this same threat with a regime that has learned from this round. And the American taxpayer funding the next war, which will be more expensive and more dangerous because Iran will have nuclear weapons next time.
The bottom line:
The political window is six months. The economic window on Iran is two to three months. The military assets are already in position. The regime is fractured, financially collapsing, and its people were already revolting before the war. Every condition for ending this regime exists right now.
The only thing missing is the will to play our aces!
John Bolton@AmbJohnBolton
The U.S. has to take back control of the Strait of Hormuz militarily, the Gulf Arab states must be allowed to move and sell oil. We cannot let Iran turn the Strait on and off like a light switch. youtu.be/bN2g44ns8oo?si…
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@theobjectivist Now the question arises: Why would a second gamble go right if the first didnt? And what if it goes wrong too? I don't think saner minds would want to go for it. It would therefore suit the US to get a good win-win deal with no enrichment to weapons grade with IAEA monitoring.
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@theobjectivist What you are forgetting here is, unlike Iran, USA has a reputation to keep. Even a 20% proportionate damage to US ships or aerial assets from Iranian drones and coastal attacks would immensely damage US defence outlook. US needs massive victory, Iran only needs not to lose.
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