Volatility Trading

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Anybody who says don't try because "most people fail" at it   Fuck that loser mindset, get it out of your mind! I don't care what other people failed at.  I'll do the work, control my controllables, and run towards difficult things The rewards on the other side are worth it

Fact:  The majority of marriages end in divorce  🤔 SO WHAT! I can vet for red flags, constantly level up in life and chase my purpose, and make sure mine isn't one of them

Unpopular opinion:  Investing in index funds because "most people underperform the market" is a LOSERS mindset * And I mean people who LOSE ground, not a derogatory on their character  😀 Make no mistake, life is competition If you want the best outcomes, do hard things

The VTS Volatility Barometer is all the best trading metrics combined into a single index

@HenricCont I hope you're right! Some days I'm 100% with you. There's been many seemingly life altering technologies that turned out to just be for the better, we were fine But on other days I think we're fucked

Being scared of progress goes all the way back to Aristotle, who speculated in Book One of Politics that if machines could become sufficiently advanced, there would be no more need for human labour. The biggest leap was the tractor that completely killed off work in agriculture by 97%. Somehow people survived… It seems the world is far more dynamic than that.

What is your realistic time frame for a world where human work is not required, and unemployment rises to 30% or more? Essentially, how many more years of "normal" work do we have left?

Gold getting SMOKED today Here's the top 20 biggest Gold crashes in 20 years Something tells me we're going to add one to the list after today 😱

Is your portfolio Crash proof? Now would be a really good time to make sure you're ready for what's coming youtube.com/watch?v=6sQt93…

You can even just chat or compliment @Grok 😂

I've been having a conversation with Grok for several hours about my plans to live on a boat for 3 months a year I used to think AI was basically just enhanced Google, but I can see now there's something more to it I can't put my finger on it, it's clearly not another "person" I'm speaking to, but it understands what I'm talking about and gives me the answers I'm looking for much more readily than I was expecting I'm genuinely both super pleased in how helpful it was, and also absolutely terrified for what it means for the future But... Thanks @Grok, I'll set sail in late 2027 as per your helpful guidance

What is the VIX index?

@KobeissiLetter On an unrelated note, 0.07% of the North Korean population is missing, we don't know where they went...

BREAKING: Kim Jong Un has won North Korea's parliamentary elections with 99.93% of the vote.

@MJA873 I've heard that's becoming more popular, essentially just living on cruise ships in retirement We did a 4 week Norway cruise, which for us felt like it was enough for a while I could certainly do a cruise once a year, they are pretty cool, but all year, nah

@VolatilityVIX I met a retired Qantas excutive on a plane he was 90 years old, sounded like he was 30. His wife had died. He kept his home and spent 11 months a year on luxury cruises around the world in lieu of a retirement village.

Traditionally people would compare 20 day realized / historical vs 30 day implied, as realized historical is only based on trading days, where implied is calendar But my "VTS Traders VRP" metric is 5-day realized combined with 30 day implied, with a momentum / rate of change calculation on top of it so I definitely understand what the OP is is saying about having something that's more responsive to shorter term movements

@options_insight @VolatilityVIX

Most traders compare 30-day implied vol to 30-day realized vol to measure the variance risk premium. I prefer 10-day realized against 30-day implied. Here's why. 30-day realized is too slow. If the market has a massive move on Monday and then goes quiet for two weeks, that Monday spike is still sitting in your 30-day window. The reading stays elevated even though the market has calmed down. 10-day realized picks up the shift faster. When the market settles, your reading drops sooner, and you spot the VRP opportunity earlier. The traders who wait for the 30-day number to confirm are always late. By the time their signal fires, the easy money is gone. Small tweak to the calculation. Faster, cleaner signal.

@Marcon000 Absolutely! There's more to it if people want to really maximize performance, but as a low hanging fruit rule of thumb, there's really nothing more effective than simply not being short vol or long equities during backwardation yet still, people do it 🤷‍♂️

@VolatilityVIX Don't short during backwardation. And more important use a small position size.

M1:M2 VIX Futures Contango/Backwardation through the 2008 Financial Crisis  Would have required legit trading skill to navigate that one At some point, we will be tested again...