Volatility Trading

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There's also record capital in markets, so they both scale with growth, inflation, population, etc. Plus I would argue a large percentage of that is simply because people are no longer dumping excess money into bonds But it's certainly NOT because investors are actively avoiding bear markets. They don't. Every recession cycle, we see that same pattern. Nearly everyone was long and strong the whole time...

@VolatilityVIX Through actual experience of working with people and seeing cash on the sidelines And the fact that there has never been more cash on the sidelines

This is such an important chart for people to understand So many people are entirely focused on avoiding bear markets that they miss large parts of bull markets Bull markets last longer and you make way more in bull markets than you lose in bear markets

Stop reporting how many nominal dollars a rich person paid in taxes. That is irrelevant! The only thing that matters is what PERCENTAGE effective tax rate did they pay? If you measure properly, in relative percentages, you will quickly see how little rich people actually pay

@ChrisWillx It's a simple rule: Never take criticism from someone you would not take advice from

How To Handle Criticism

@PeterLBrandt 0.01% ? ish...

Challenge question for all you young trading geniuses out there claiming 2X per year endlessly Assumptions. 1. Avg. sub 30-year old male in U.S. 2. Minimum investment/trading experience 3. Capital to trade NOT an issue 4. Begins to trade futures and equities 5. After two years of learning What is probability of making average of 30% per year for following five years with only one losing year?

ARK has built an empire on making staggeringly unrealistic forward projections, and people keep falling for it 34 trillion? So, larger than the entire US GDP I'll take the UNDER on that one...

@billybinion The progressive tax system in the US is great The problem is, it's not enforced and there's a thousand loopholes and write offs To the point where the rich pay a FAR lower percentage "effective" tax rates You don't need to increase taxes You just have to enforce the system

This myth just won't die. In 2024 alone, it's estimated Jeff Bezos paid almost $3 billion in taxes. Painting rich people as tax avoiders plays great on social media, but it's not reality. The U.S. has the most progressive tax system in the developed world.

M1:M2 VIX futures in 2022 This gives us a good idea why 2022 was such a brutal year for trend following strategies Just when it felt like something was building, the market was like, fuck your trend!

@MarionVanR @MarkJCarney I'm not saying we should overtly destroy the environment But... Maybe Canada should fix their broken economy first, and revisit the whole climate change stuff down the road when Canadians have a successful country again?

L’occident se réorganise sans Trump. Le Canada (4e producteur mondial de pétrole et gaz) se rapproche de l’Europe. Le PM @MarkJCarney au Sommet de la Communauté politique européenne à Erevan: “Un ordre international sera reconstitué à partir de l’Europe.”

Here's why I bought Bitcoin in June 2022

@TicTocTick Top 1% individual income in Canada is $324,000 CDN In USD that's $238,000 so yeah, not far off Most of the developed world is around the same prices. You're just used to the US which of course is one of the highest in the world

I am shocked that in Canada you can make $200k a year and still be in top 1%. Not sure if this is true. Grok?

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@KyleWatson16398 @ThomasSowell The jury is definitely out on whether they can "replace" a human brain But it's pretty obvious to me anyway that AI and robotics could already replace 30% or more of the global workforce, and that's in 2026 People underrepresent how easy and replaceable many jobs are

@VolatilityVIX @ThomasSowell AI is utterly retarded...in their wet dreams can they replace a human brain. They aren't even close to solving the economic calculation problem: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_…

Javier Milei: “If technological progress really destroyed jobs, the unemployment rate today would have to be 90 percent.”

@updowninwaves Sherlock! How did you know that?

@VolatilityVIX You are down on the south side, nice nice

Here in Calgary, Canada gas is $1.86 per litre Converting litre to gallon and currency exchange That’s $5.20 USD per gallon What’s gas at where you live?

@eleutron2 Insane, are you out East?

@VolatilityVIX 2.15 a litre

Calm markets give traders false confidence, leading them to abandon risk management because for a while it can seem unnecessary Many traders learned that lesson the hard way in the 2018 Volpocalypse event Everybody and their dog piling into the "easy money" trade got crushed!

Shameless plug, but where can investors get a 14% + rate of return? Well past performance is not indicative of future blah blah blah, but our VTS Portfolio has achieved over 20% CAGR for 13+ years Follow along to see if we do it for 17 more years!

Want me to really blow your mind? What if an investor tripled the VBINX and actually got a 21% annual return? At 21% CAGR for 30 years, even with a very modest addition of $1,000 a month they will be sitting on 16 million!

What's the long-term difference between an investor making 7% a year vs 14% a year vs 21% a year? Assumptions: Start: $10,000 Annual return:  7%  (something like VBINX) Monthly addition:  $1,000 After 30 years this investor will have 1.2 million Now what about 14%?