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Took my first trade in $MU in 2013 and have experienced all cycles since. The double edged sword of semis is that generalists buy these names on the way up, then almost immediately start to fear the cycle top.
Let me be clear: Prior memory cycles have been killed by oversupply, but this cycle will succumb to a slow death from the complete destruction of demand from prices and deterioration of margins by corporate customers.
This has been 3yrs in the making, driven by the shift to HBM capex and limited capex budgets following the covid cycle. The market seems to finally accept the story, but there is still almost no understanding of the magnitude of the impact this will have. That's why MU's guide was so monstrous vs estimates.
YOU ARE NOT LONG ENOUGH
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