David Lopez

2.4K posts

David Lopez

David Lopez

@YoItsDLo

Investor. Former Portfolio Manager, focused solely on my personal capital since 2020.

San Francisco Bay Area Katılım Haziran 2009
514 Takip Edilen547 Takipçiler
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David Lopez
David Lopez@YoItsDLo·
Took my first trade in $MU in 2013 and have experienced all cycles since. The double edged sword of semis is that generalists buy these names on the way up, then almost immediately start to fear the cycle top. Let me be clear: Prior memory cycles have been killed by oversupply, but this cycle will succumb to a slow death from the complete destruction of demand from prices and deterioration of margins by corporate customers. This has been 3yrs in the making, driven by the shift to HBM capex and limited capex budgets following the covid cycle. The market seems to finally accept the story, but there is still almost no understanding of the magnitude of the impact this will have. That's why MU's guide was so monstrous vs estimates. YOU ARE NOT LONG ENOUGH
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David Lopez
David Lopez@YoItsDLo·
$MSFT is a compelling opportunity and calls remain cheap. Watched it since March, then thought I missed it after Ackman's tweet on May OpEx, but it's still doing a bunch of nothing. The copilot business is compounding at a triple digit rate , and their distribution channels are some of the best in enterprise AI. The Maia chip should be helping drive margin expansion from Azure services at the same time growth is accelerating. On top of that we have reports that Anthropic is in talks to be the first external customer to use Maia 200- really, it's to expand compute access, but the headline will validate the Maia story. My view has been very similar to Ackman's; here's his thesis: x.com/BillAckman/sta…
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David Lopez
David Lopez@YoItsDLo·
$SONY has been setting up and I started accumulating the last week. Call IVs are dirt cheap. Business/roadmap updates should be coming in the next few weeks (annual cadence) and I expect more on the recent MOU on a 2nd JV with TSMC for CMOS sensors that'll power physical AI. This will be the key to their re-rating, which I suspect is imminent. SONY pays a meaningful amount of expenses in USD, so a strengthening JPY- which seems likely to materialize in the next few months- will be a tailwind for margins. They also just blasted out of ~1bil (USD) in charge offs into strength as core businesses outperformed. These are non-cash write downs. Ex write offs, the recent report would have been a sizable beat. SONY trades around ~17x fwd
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tae kim
tae kim@firstadopter·
Hundreds of billions of stock buyback/dividends INCOMING for $NVDA I'm serious. I just got off a video call interview with Nvidia CFO Colette Kress after the earnings call. (Yes, Substacks get this kind of access now. Sorry, mainstream media.) When I asked her whether the 50% FCF shareholder return plan after strategic pre-payments/investments is a permanent policy (not just this year), she said yes. I then followed up by saying with some growth factored in that math points to hundreds of billions in stock buybacks and dividends soon, do you agree with that? She nodded her head emphatically. "Yes! Yes. Yes. Do the math going forward, when will we meet a trillion dollars returned to shareholders? That's what we're pretty much saying. It's on the horizon.”
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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Gavin Baker: "I've been optimistic that the fundamental shortage of wafers, which is really controlled by Taiwan Semi, will prevent a bubble." "If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, Nvidia could sell $2 trillion of GPUs in 2026 or 2027. But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much that you'd probably be in an overbuild. And you are starting to see companies go to Intel and Samsung. A lot of this may come down to the degree to which Taiwan Semi can maintain a lead over Intel and Samsung and the pace at which they expand capacity. If I were to watch one thing to understand whether there's a bubble, it's Taiwan Semi's capacity decisions. There's a Goldilocks zone where they expand enough to make it hard for Intel or Samsung to emerge as a second source, but they also keep the fundamental constraint on wafers that helps us avoid a bubble."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

This is my sixth conversation with @GavinSBaker. As always with Gavin, the conversation covers a lot of ground, but we spend the most time on watts and wafers. We discuss: - Why the wafer shortage may prevent an AI bubble - Data centers in space (reframed) - Elon's Terafab and the new chip companies challenging Nvidia - Usage-based pricing - The disaggregation of GPUs - DRAM, frontier tokens, and open source Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 7:55 Anthropic and OpenAI Valuations 12:58 Watts, Wafers, and Infrastructure 14:39 Orbital Compute and Data Centers in Space 22:49 Avoiding the AI Bubble 28:26 Terafab and the Future of US Manufacturing 32:16 Returns to the Frontier 37:23 Continual Learning 42:03 New Chip Companies 48:52 Extending GPU Lifespans and Private Credit 51:22 The Application Layer 57:32 The Token Path and Open-Source Dynamics 1:01:37 Cybersecurity 1:05:46 Diversity Breakdown 1:11:59 Assessing the Big Tech Players in AI 1:19:02 Geopolitics, Personal Safety, and the AI Horizon

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David Lopez
David Lopez@YoItsDLo·
Big blowoff top vibes this week with the daily gap ups and the picture perfect finish of a squeeze into the weekend. Pros deployed into EOQ, which means the semis basket just made their whole year while positioning and valuations are getting stretched. Stay frosty.
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David Lopez
David Lopez@YoItsDLo·
Stay frosty for this part. Market tends to "test" new Fed Chairs with -10% drawdowns in their first year on the job, and I would bet if Warsh gets the FOMC to vote in a way that reduces rates but increases BS runoff, there is a non-zero chance the bond market could have a scare due to fear over impact of tighter borrowing. First 2 meetings would be: 1. June 16-17: My *guess* is this would be status quo unless conditions meaningfully changed) 2. July 28-29: I'd expect a little more of the Warsh policy to surface. Could kick off a challenging period Honestly, that leaves Sept 15-16 as the third meeting, and if we do get volatility in July-Aug period, by the Sept meeting we should have enough of the inflationary pressures starting to roll over that Sept could be a great month for equities.
David Lopez@YoItsDLo

Market will still have a fit about it, though

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David Lopez
David Lopez@YoItsDLo·
Shocking news. As a non-expert in fin plumbing, I never understood why we didn't 1st accel the BS runoff instead of aggressively hiking. Would've avoided dual impact of money market income driving inflation & reducing supply-increasing investment. Warsh's views seem similar.
David Lopez tweet media
David Lopez@YoItsDLo

The admin keeps pushing this "hawkish" narrative to soothe bond mkt. It's nonsense. Literally a 0% chance that Trump, with full control of the nomination, selected a hawk who will pressure credit. Rate cuts + BS runoff = high spread =/= high rates open.substack.com/pub/cashequiva…

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David Lopez
David Lopez@YoItsDLo·
Good to see fund managers are catching up on their news backlog from 6mos ago $NVDA
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David Lopez
David Lopez@YoItsDLo·
I've spent a significant amt of time w/claude vibe coding tools and programs for myself. There's ZERO chance SMB will have time or risk tol to vibe code critical infra. Startups are most at risk vs embedded platforms. We probably see some mega squeezes on earnings this quarter.
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Senior PowerPoint Engineer
Senior PowerPoint Engineer@ryxcommar·
the stock market is funny because the largest global supply chain shock since a deadly worldwide pandemic is worth -0.2% but a single blog post speculating about a new technology can stone cold stunner SaaS companies -50%.
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David Lopez
David Lopez@YoItsDLo·
Full disclosure, I got aggressive on the ORCL dip on Mon, trimmed it yday, and cut a lot more today. OpenAI closing on $110bil in new funds is positive, BUT the announced partnership w/AWS to supply 2GW (vs ORCL's stalled 4.5GW) specifically for frontier (i.e. enterprise agents) is a big negative imv, as AWS will now be leading the charge in the most important growth area for LLMs. Fundamentally changes a good portion of my immediate term bull case, so I sent funds to cash to await better setups and a more constructive market environment (which may begin next week).
David Lopez@YoItsDLo

Ive been watching $ORCL to pick my spot since Dec, and took it today. The stock has been disconnected from the reality of its >$500bil and growing RPOs, and given the total sector capitulation of the last few weeks, it’s likely finally flushed. I expect >50% from here in 2026.

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David Lopez
David Lopez@YoItsDLo·
The year is 2028. $NVDA has been trading in a sub-penny bid-ask spread of 193.598-193.599 since December 2027. It is now trading at lower than market multiple despite a 40% CAGR. Surely this is the year it breaks out.
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David Lopez
David Lopez@YoItsDLo·
Market will still have a fit about it, though
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David Lopez
David Lopez@YoItsDLo·
The admin keeps pushing this "hawkish" narrative to soothe bond mkt. It's nonsense. Literally a 0% chance that Trump, with full control of the nomination, selected a hawk who will pressure credit. Rate cuts + BS runoff = high spread =/= high rates open.substack.com/pub/cashequiva…
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David Lopez
David Lopez@YoItsDLo·
The pendulum swung beyond extreme pessimism. Feb OpEx - Mar OpEx = Tech will rip straight up. OpenAI round close NVDA, AVGO, ORCL, MU report Late Feb-Mar conf cycle + GTC Btw, Jensen seems frustrated and ready to throw out anything to get NVDA to move…
Eliant Capital@eliant_capital

If finalized, OpenAI would be fully funded through 2030, which should meaningfully alleviate ongoing concerns amid the skepticism & pessimism that has built around OpenAI’s capital intensity and long-term funding requirements.

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