Andrea Cerrato

461 posts

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Andrea Cerrato

Andrea Cerrato

@_acerrato

Economist at the @BostonFed | Economics PhD at @UCBerkeley @berkeleyecon | Co-founder at @TortugaThink Opinions are my own

Beigetreten Ocak 2013
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Andrea Cerrato
Andrea Cerrato@_acerrato·
Excited to be on the job market! ➡️My website: shorturl.at/fmqsv Here is my #JMP: "How Big Is the Big Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of a Large-Scale Regional Development Program" ➡️Full draft: shorturl.at/jEHIT A thread for #Econtwitter⬇️ 1/10
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Jason Furman
Jason Furman@jasonfurman·
@_acerrato The scorekeepers (like Yale Budget Lab) have dynamic models that take that into account. It undoes some of the revenue but not close to the majority. You would need like a 4% reduction in the level of GDP to offset the direct revenue--about 10X what models predict.
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Jason Furman
Jason Furman@jasonfurman·
Four theses on tariff impacts: 1. Evidence clearly shows they've added 0.5-1.0pp to inflation. Evidence consistent with them subtracting from growth. And no evidence they've done anything good for manufacturing or trade deficits (but they have raised revenue).
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Andrea Cerrato
Andrea Cerrato@_acerrato·
@jasonfurman Are there papers showing that GE effects on revenues did not offset the direct positive impact?
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Jason Furman
Jason Furman@jasonfurman·
2. The negative growth impacts predicted by leading models (Yale Budget Lab, Tax Foundation, etc.) were always around 0.25 to 1.0pp. And tariff rates have been cut by more than half since their April forecasts. So nothing we've seen would lead us to reject the economic models.
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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦@lugaricano·
1/@EpochAIResearch doubles down on preiction AI will drive 20%+ annual GDP growth. Economists remain skeptical. This is the defining debate of today: AI builders see infinite prosperity ahead. Economists see the same limits that constrained every technological revolution.🧵 1/13
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Edoardo Mecca
Edoardo Mecca@EdoardoMecca1·
Quale attaccante (tra quelli prendibili e realistici) prendereste alla Juve per la prossima stagione? ⬇️⬇️⬇️
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Francesco Filippucci
Francesco Filippucci@f_filippucci·
Questo weekend è stato un weekend speciale per me e altre 100+ persone: festeggiamo 10 anni di rotta condivisa, in un gruppo con un nome un po’ buffo, @TortugaThink .
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Alberto Cavallo
Alberto Cavallo@albertocavallo·
While the USTR tariff calculator cites the findings from Cavallo, Gopinath, Neiman & Tang (2021) it is not entirely clear how they use our findings. Based on our research, the elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs is closer to 1. If that figure were used instead of 0.25, the implied reciprocal tariffs would come out about four times smaller.
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel)@TradeDiversion

USTR: "The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ, is 0.25. The recent experience with U.S. tariffs on China has demonstrated that tariff passthrough to retail prices was low (Cavallo et al, 2021)." Cavallo et al: φ is 0.945. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…

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Robin Brooks
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks·
The flood of transshipments to Russia via Kyrgyzstan has been an open secret inside the EU since Russia invaded Ukraine. Poland and the Baltics cracked down on this. Italy did not. These transshipments are a choice. Italy prefers to make money rather than confront Russia...
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Eva Davoine
Eva Davoine@EvaDavoine·
🚨New working paper🚨 “The Political Costs of Taxation” with @EnguehardJoseph & @IgorKol52824963 When a state has low capacity and legitimacy, attempts to enforce unfair taxation can fuel social conflict! Some key findings: 🧵 1/10
International Tax Observatory@taxobservatory

Our recent WP explores the political consequences of enforcing the salt tax in early modern #France 🇫🇷 The authors examine how stricter enforcement of this tax, which varied across regions, led to conflicts between taxpayers and the state. Read here: taxobservatory.eu/publication/th…

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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦@lugaricano·
The Italian SuperBonus: How a badly designed fiscal "stimulus" ballooned to 6 times its budget to cost 12% of Italy's GDP, and what it tells us about the fiscal governance of Europe. A thread on my Silicon Continent post. (1/11)
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Jason Furman
Jason Furman@jasonfurman·
New productivity growth numbers consistent with the view that we remain almost exactly on the course that was expected prior to COVID. No evidence of an AI inflection in these data--at least not yet.
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Andrea Cerrato
Andrea Cerrato@_acerrato·
Thanks for reading, comments are more than welcome! Many additional details in the paper. To know more about my research: shorturl.at/adjM3
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Andrea Cerrato
Andrea Cerrato@_acerrato·
Counterfactuals: 1⃣Fundamentals in the Center-North = South ➡️Smaller crowding-out effects, larger aggregate gains 2⃣Uniform allocation of resources across Italian regions ➡️Larger aggregate gains, even under conservative assumptions 10/10
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@jasonfurman @EpochAIResearch @EdoardoMecca1 @TortugaThink @EnguehardJoseph @IgorKol52824963 @albertobisin @PorzioTommaso