Andrea Cerrato

461 posts

Andrea Cerrato banner
Andrea Cerrato

Andrea Cerrato

@_acerrato

Economist at the @BostonFed | Economics PhD at @UCBerkeley @berkeleyecon | Co-founder at @TortugaThink Opinions are my own

Katılım Ocak 2013
1K Takip Edilen567 Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Andrea Cerrato
Andrea Cerrato@_acerrato·
Excited to be on the job market! ➡️My website: shorturl.at/fmqsv Here is my #JMP: "How Big Is the Big Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of a Large-Scale Regional Development Program" ➡️Full draft: shorturl.at/jEHIT A thread for #Econtwitter⬇️ 1/10
Andrea Cerrato tweet media
English
2
42
189
51K
Jason Furman
Jason Furman@jasonfurman·
@_acerrato The scorekeepers (like Yale Budget Lab) have dynamic models that take that into account. It undoes some of the revenue but not close to the majority. You would need like a 4% reduction in the level of GDP to offset the direct revenue--about 10X what models predict.
English
1
0
1
199
Jason Furman
Jason Furman@jasonfurman·
Four theses on tariff impacts: 1. Evidence clearly shows they've added 0.5-1.0pp to inflation. Evidence consistent with them subtracting from growth. And no evidence they've done anything good for manufacturing or trade deficits (but they have raised revenue).
English
16
67
521
82.7K
Andrea Cerrato
Andrea Cerrato@_acerrato·
@jasonfurman Are there papers showing that GE effects on revenues did not offset the direct positive impact?
English
1
0
0
199
Jason Furman
Jason Furman@jasonfurman·
2. The negative growth impacts predicted by leading models (Yale Budget Lab, Tax Foundation, etc.) were always around 0.25 to 1.0pp. And tariff rates have been cut by more than half since their April forecasts. So nothing we've seen would lead us to reject the economic models.
English
2
15
169
18.4K
Andrea Cerrato retweetledi
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦@lugaricano·
1/@EpochAIResearch doubles down on preiction AI will drive 20%+ annual GDP growth. Economists remain skeptical. This is the defining debate of today: AI builders see infinite prosperity ahead. Economists see the same limits that constrained every technological revolution.🧵 1/13
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 tweet media
English
32
187
554
186.7K
Edoardo Mecca
Edoardo Mecca@EdoardoMecca1·
Quale attaccante (tra quelli prendibili e realistici) prendereste alla Juve per la prossima stagione? ⬇️⬇️⬇️
Italiano
348
8
234
53.3K
Andrea Cerrato retweetledi
Francesco Filippucci
Francesco Filippucci@f_filippucci·
Questo weekend è stato un weekend speciale per me e altre 100+ persone: festeggiamo 10 anni di rotta condivisa, in un gruppo con un nome un po’ buffo, @TortugaThink .
Francesco Filippucci tweet media
Italiano
1
1
7
690
Andrea Cerrato retweetledi
Alberto Cavallo
Alberto Cavallo@albertocavallo·
While the USTR tariff calculator cites the findings from Cavallo, Gopinath, Neiman & Tang (2021) it is not entirely clear how they use our findings. Based on our research, the elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs is closer to 1. If that figure were used instead of 0.25, the implied reciprocal tariffs would come out about four times smaller.
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel)@TradeDiversion

USTR: "The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ, is 0.25. The recent experience with U.S. tariffs on China has demonstrated that tariff passthrough to retail prices was low (Cavallo et al, 2021)." Cavallo et al: φ is 0.945. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…

English
44
476
1.7K
654.2K
Andrea Cerrato retweetledi
Robin Brooks
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks·
The flood of transshipments to Russia via Kyrgyzstan has been an open secret inside the EU since Russia invaded Ukraine. Poland and the Baltics cracked down on this. Italy did not. These transshipments are a choice. Italy prefers to make money rather than confront Russia...
Robin Brooks tweet media
English
132
570
1.8K
97.4K
Andrea Cerrato retweetledi
Eva Davoine
Eva Davoine@EvaDavoine·
🚨New working paper🚨 “The Political Costs of Taxation” with @EnguehardJoseph & @IgorKol52824963 When a state has low capacity and legitimacy, attempts to enforce unfair taxation can fuel social conflict! Some key findings: 🧵 1/10
International Tax Observatory@taxobservatory

Our recent WP explores the political consequences of enforcing the salt tax in early modern #France 🇫🇷 The authors examine how stricter enforcement of this tax, which varied across regions, led to conflicts between taxpayers and the state. Read here: taxobservatory.eu/publication/th…

English
1
26
95
10.8K
Andrea Cerrato retweetledi
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦@lugaricano·
The Italian SuperBonus: How a badly designed fiscal "stimulus" ballooned to 6 times its budget to cost 12% of Italy's GDP, and what it tells us about the fiscal governance of Europe. A thread on my Silicon Continent post. (1/11)
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 tweet media
English
14
103
474
97.6K
Andrea Cerrato retweetledi
Jason Furman
Jason Furman@jasonfurman·
New productivity growth numbers consistent with the view that we remain almost exactly on the course that was expected prior to COVID. No evidence of an AI inflection in these data--at least not yet.
Jason Furman tweet media
English
8
48
193
35.7K
Andrea Cerrato
Andrea Cerrato@_acerrato·
Thanks for reading, comments are more than welcome! Many additional details in the paper. To know more about my research: shorturl.at/adjM3
English
0
0
2
606
Andrea Cerrato
Andrea Cerrato@_acerrato·
Counterfactuals: 1⃣Fundamentals in the Center-North = South ➡️Smaller crowding-out effects, larger aggregate gains 2⃣Uniform allocation of resources across Italian regions ➡️Larger aggregate gains, even under conservative assumptions 10/10
English
1
0
1
632

Keşfet

@jasonfurman @EpochAIResearch @EdoardoMecca1 @TortugaThink @EnguehardJoseph @IgorKol52824963 @albertobisin @PorzioTommaso