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Two meteorological powerhouses - the Polar Vortex to the north & the Heat Dome in the south have carved out quite a storm track across much of Canada. Stong #wind in BC has eased as the storm tracks eastwards. Snow, rain, thunder, wind & big temp swings on deck! @weathernetwork

Some afternoon model runs predictions on rainfall till Fri. 8PM, all seem to🎯SWONT where some embedded convection may stroll across SW MI into SWONT across N. shore of L. Erie to give numbers a boost. locally higher amounts as the NAM & HRDPS hint. #onwx #onstorm

Overnight runs for estimated total rainfall (in mm) for today till 8AM EDT Fri. Models are focused in an area from deep SWONT-along the N. shoreline of L. Erie to-S. Niagara where the risk exists of embedded storms enhancing rainfall rates and amounts. #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: None at Post #onwx #onstorm

Latest hourly run of the HRRR-Radar 4cast- from ~now till Midnight (added SPC's Convective Outlook for today) Showers begin developing mid morning & sink SE-ward-with new showers/possible storms developing from deep S. SWONT thru N. L. Erie Shoreline to S. Niagara #onwx #onstorm

Current Radar loop for the Great Lakes right down to SONT, last 6hrs. till 9:18 AM EDT Radar (P-type) Light snow showers to the north (NEONT/Cottage C.) and rain making its way across WI & MI #onwx #onstorm

Latest HRRR Lightning risk and your CAPE fix overview from ~now till Midnight. Colour scale on top for both #onwx #onstorm

Ohno

Southern Ontario will experience a surge of active weather Thursday, with thunderstorms and possible severe storms expected, particularly in the southwest. #ONStorm ow.ly/UTjp50Yz8iG

9:29 AM EDT 3/26/26: Up to an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) of severe t-storms exists in our region today. The most likely window for severe storms is late this afternoon into this evening. Stay Weather Aware and have a way to get warnings and alerts on your phone! #OHwx #PAwx

GORILLA HAIL THREAT maximizes today from Peoria, Illinois through Toledo, Ohio this late afternoon and evening! We expect elevated supercells to erupt by 4-6 pm across northern Indiana and expand across the enhanced risk zone. Any dominant supercells that can steamroll southeast into the warm air will have a chance of a #tornado or two, especially around 7-9 pm. We are activating storm chase mode

Midwest gang – the Level 3 out of 5 Enhanced risk has been expanded eastwards through much of Ohio. The risk of a few scattered hailstorms, some of which pay produce hail bigger than golf balls, has increased. Isolated tornado risk. @MatthewCappucci is working on update.

Two important maps: the left is LIKELIHOOD of hail, and the right is a reasonable worst case-scenario SIZE of hail. The areal coverage of hailstorms will be greatest in the red (left). Where hail occurs, it could be UP TO the size of eggs.

12Z Day Tornado Forecast (New New 2022 Models)

#ONStorm #ONwx ⚠️ Deep Southwestern Ontario: Possible Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon with Isolated Tornado Risk Good morning! We’ve been keeping an eye on what looks to be a fairly potent environment for severe weather south of the border later today. This has prompted the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to issue an enhanced risk, level 3 out of 5, for parts of Indiana and Ohio. This same environment may extend into Deep Southwestern Ontario, particularly along the Windsor, Leamington and Chatham corridor. In fact, the SPC has a slight risk right up to our border, which clearly covers parts of Windsor and Essex County. The big question is how far north that environment actually makes it. There is expected to be a very sharp drop off somewhere around Deep Southwestern Ontario. It’s possible the strongest conditions stay just south of the region, which would cause the bulk of the severe activity to track over Lake Erie and Ohio instead of crossing into Ontario. Simulated radar does show a few potentially potent cells developing around Lake St. Clair and tracking into the Chatham to Windsor area between roughly 3 and 5 PM. If the environment is able to extend this far north, it could allow any storms that develop to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. We also can’t rule out a rotating storm capable of producing an isolated tornado, but confidence in that remains low. Another factor to watch will be the cold waters of the Great Lakes. These can often weaken storms before they are able to cross the border, which adds another layer of uncertainty to the setup. We’ll be closely tracking any storms that develop through the afternoon. Stay tuned! - Brennen

Cannot believe this just happened. Close range intercept near Kankake, Illinois. Lost glass and grille.

small hail also seems to be a risk overnight, the yellow coloring or blobs, show higher risk with some of these storms, especially/mainly in SWONT. #onwx #onstorm

🌪️ EXTREMELY CLOSE ENCOUNTER with a massive stovepipe tornado near Kankakee, Illinois! A large and dangerous tornado tore across the south side of Kankakee and crossed I-57, leaving behind major damage. Storm chasers also witnessed grapefruit-sized hail with this intense storm. 📹 For licensing, contact Curtislergner@gmail.com. #KankakeeIL #Tornado #IllinoisWeather #SevereWeather #TornadoDamage #StormChasing #WeatherAlert #I57 #BreakingWeather #ExtremeWeather #TornadoWarning #Hail #StormDamage #LicensingAvailable

Massive tornado on the ground Kankakee, IL

12Z Day 2 Tornado Forecast for 2026-3-11 (New New 2022 Models)