AC

For many visitors from Europe, a first trip to Costco during the World Cup becomes a cultural experience on its own. The huge packages, endless variety, and products ranging from food to clothing, coolers, and even hot tubs show a different side of everyday shopping in the U.S. It’s fun to see the surprise and excitement over something Americans sometimes take for granted. Even a simple Costco hot dog becomes a memorable moment because of the combination of taste, size, and value. Travel is not only about seeing famous places; sometimes it’s about discovering small everyday differences between cultures. Who would have thought a warehouse store could become one of the highlights of a World Cup trip?

I’m long $SIVE at $140M. I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed. $SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers. Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck. But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles. They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova. And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally. 

 $POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers… But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself?

 It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B. 

 So now at $130m:

- - You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET. 

 - Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI. And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential. 

 On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”. 

And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers." 

Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come. 

I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt.

 It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week. Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo. 

Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in. 

Downside risk: 
- execution (as always) 
- dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others. - $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B
- CPO ramp gets delayed. 

I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC. 

Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier. 

 When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M. I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck). 

 But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up. Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers. 

 If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures. Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated. Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622. This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI. TLDR: InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations. 

 $SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp. 

I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst). 

 The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.

Final exit here for me on $MSFT. Will be looking for the next trade. Sure it can go higher but the r/r is not the same as when I entered. This should at least cover my one year’s rent in NYC.

$SMH I was advising caution because of the bearish divergence I saw on the daily brewing here. It's not validated yet since Monday market can still chug higher and we might see a bit of a ramp up but let me explain why I put the tweet out. 2 reasons: - Yes it is not validated but a shooting star candle on the daly which is coming off a run up in short term usually is a reversal pattern and it can lead to lower prices in the next few session if there is price acceptance under 570. 5-8% correction here next week is very healthy. Alright here also you are hearing some level of confirmation that is needed Tuesday but, - The confirmation that most of the market is seeing has come in when I saw the 2.5M Put position into the shorter dated 530P far OTM for a 5/29 expiry on a 3 day weekend which signified the bear confidence. Let me know what you all think of these scenarios and if they are not something to worry about in the short term sense. Longer timeframe we remain extremely bullish. Speak your thesis with a timeframe instead of just throwing tantrums like my 3 year old. If you like my analysis hit the ❤️ and repost.

Took some positions on QCOM incase it gets to $200+ tomorrow. If it does these all pay like crazy imo