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@KobeissiLetter This is incorrect DeepSeek spent close $2-3B. Alexandr Wang, the ceo of Scale AI said that Deepseek has about 50K H100s, however mentioned he can’t discuss it due to export controls.

The Economic Surprise Index (ESI) measures delta vs expectations, not absolute growth. A positive reading often just means economists were too pessimistic, not that growth is robust. Historically, ESIs tend to mean-revert quickly because analysts adjust forecasts upward after repeated beats, compressing future “surprises.” For example: After prior cycles (e.g., 2023), strong surprise readings faded within months as expectations caught up without a corresponding acceleration in real economic growth. Basically, The Economic Surprise Index measures expectations vs reality, not actual economic strength. The recent upside is driven by noisy, lagging, and revision-prone indicators, not durable hard data. Meanwhile, financial conditions remain tight and geopolitical risks haven’t flowed through yet, making this look more like a temporary data bounce than a true re-acceleration.

BREAKING: The US Economic Surprise Index is up to 0.338, the highest since October 2023. The index measures economic data expectations to reality, rising above 0 when data beats estimates and falling below 0 when data misses. Since July 2025, the index has risen +0.74 points, from -0.40, the lowest since September 2024. The recent surge has been driven by stronger-than-expected retail sales, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Conference Board Consumer Confidence data. This suggests analysts significantly underestimated how much momentum the US economy had heading into the Iran war. The US economy continues to surprise to the upside, even as geopolitical risks remain elevated.

@EliAfriatISR Let me guess you’re also are part of the massive $QQQ put trade expiring next Monday.

🚨🇮🇷BREAKING: Axios: There is a high chance that the ceasefire will collapse tonight.

Macro regime remains unchanged despite the rally: The 2-year Treasury yield continues to signal a “higher for longer” Fed stance, the US dollar remains firm (tight global liquidity), and recent FOMC communication shows no meaningful shift toward easing. Taken together, financial conditions are still restrictive, meaning today’s price action is not supported by a fundamental improvement in the macro backdrop. The move was driven by positioning and mechanical flows, not fundamentals: The magnitude and speed of the rally are consistent with short covering, CTA repositioning, and systematic/pension rebalancing rather than a repricing of growth or policy. When equities rise without confirmation from rates or FX, it typically reflects liquidity dynamics temporarily overwhelming macro signals rather than a durable change in trend. No confirmation of a durable bull regime yet: For this to transition into a sustained rally, you would need to see simultaneous confirmation across key macro indicators—declining front-end yields (toward ~4% or below), a weakening dollar (DXY < ~102), and tightening credit spreads. Without this alignment, the current environment remains fragile, and rallies should be viewed as tactical rather than structural. We’re just trading within wartime territory right now. Don’t get too excited. $SPY $QQQ

@SteveUrkelDude We’re still trading in wartime territory. Look at $dxy and the 2-year. The fed rate path is unchanged. Same expectations as yesterday and the day before. Read the FOMC minutes. Surprises me how traders are unaware of these conditions.

So the current cease-fire is going very well I see… Maybe this helps fill some gaps, then solidify an agreement, and continue higher? Dunno, just thinking out loud..

Beat the stock down right in time for the Space X IPO $TSLA and watch this baby moon. @elonmusk please give your Tesla loyalists first dibs 🫡

Food for thought 📉🤔

Careful with this guy, absolute nut job who said to leave DC and NYC due to terrorist threats yesterday then said to short $QQQ at today's open. And finally said expect a 41% market drop this week. Called him out on his nonsense and bam!

$QQQ short-dated puts being punched with over $30M in premiums but look at this monster close from $QQQ. I think we gap-fill up into $610 tomorrow.

I can already tell that if we rip tomorrow and Friday this will be the most hated rally even more than Liberation Day. I mean why not? Trumps market only bounce and goes up. $SPY $QQQ 📈

Posting this $38M $QQQ put order so I can have people with pitchforks at my doorstep

@snorlax_uw The massive whale position is still open not sure what you’re looking at.

Long or short, whatever it was, lots of those $QQQ puts from yesterday look like they're getting closed

@StratsLabs Lot of short covering today but let’s see how the market closes today. Might see a lot of profit taking.

@all8rite A downward gap fill move could come by Friday. We've PCE & GDP data tomorrow and CPI on Friday. A sell-off filling the gap downward could come by Friday. x.com/StratsLabs/sta…

Ceasefire agreement? Gone. $SPY

@TheBronxViking He’s still holding those $45M in QQQ puts though 🫡

No shit bro we’ve all seen the unusual flow 😂 🐳💰💰💰

Pretty sure he’s been liquidated. Using leverage to short. Again don’t blindly follow. $QQQ is now up more than 3% and absolutely rallied after his post 🫠

Markets shrugging everything off like we going to a V-Shaped recovery. 😮‍💨📈

@sannbet That’s what happens when you enter a crowded trade

VIX is down 22% and the weekly puts aren’t even up 30%. What the scam 😂

@TheBronxViking That theta though…. They got 3 days. 😎

Yea because Israel Channel 12 News is still bag holding $45Million in $QQQ puts that they don’t want to expire worthless

And this is why $VIX bounced off that trend line.

@Mr_Derivatives It’s right at the trend line, we bouncing baby.

$VIX could touch sub 20 today. First time since late February, when the war actually started.