nyx

🚨👀 BREAKING: $ONDS may have just landed its first FIFA World Cup 2026 contract‼️ In early March, Massachusetts State Police (MSP) posted procurement documents explicitly naming Sentrycs’ DTIM Gen2 counter-drone system on the official state platform. They didn’t just pick one vendor. They’re building a full layered stack - all with the same deadline, same contact, same delivery address: • Robin IRIS: 3D radar detection • BlueHalo Titan: RF jamming • Sentrycs DTIM: Fixed cyber-takeover • D-Fend EnforceAir2: Mobile cyber-takeover Required delivery: Before May 31, 2026 Proposal deadline: March 6, 2026 Detection. Identification. Fixed neutralization. Mobile response. A complete “digital dome” over Gillette Stadium, just in time for the World Cup kicking off in June. Sentrycs and D-Fend aren’t competing here either. They’re complementary. In their respective RFQ’s, MSP are requesting/procuring two different CORF platforms: • Sentrycs = Stationary perimeter defense (Tripods, Pelican cases, 24/7 autonomous) • D-Fend = Mobile response (Vehicle antennas, batteries - rides with MSP) The Boston Institute for Nonprofit Journalism independently confirmed these exact systems (Robin, Titan, Sentrycs) are being deployed to create a “digital dome” over the stadium (pictures below). Even better: 3-year maintenance requests for both Sentrycs and D-Fend. So, this is permanent C-UAS infrastructure - with the World Cup as the catalyst. Boston Marathon. Fenway. July 4th. The dome stays up long after the summer. Bottom line: Massachusetts State Police is locking in a full counter-drone stack for the biggest sporting event on earth - and $ONDS/Sentrycs is a named core piece. Boston is just 1 of 11 host cities. If this is the blueprint, 10 more procurements are already in motion. Visibility and validation on the biggest stage for Sentrycs? Lets see👀

Ex CEO highlighting this partnership as if it's news. That grant was announced in 2024. Meanwhile, insiders have been selling all through this pump. Most recently 3 board members. I am getting a sour taste in my mouth; will be interesting to see. $SIVE

Ex CEO highlighting this partnership as if it's news. That grant was announced in 2024. Meanwhile, insiders have been selling all through this pump. Most recently 3 board members. I am getting a sour taste in my mouth; will be interesting to see. $SIVE

$ONDS holding the 21W EMA but showing clear divergence on the Matrix and Flow. The recent "Bear Trigger" has me staying patient. Once we get the next flush out and a "Bull Trigger," I will pounce. Keeping Ondas on the watchlist for now.

I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC. I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM). IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC. They sit in almost every major chokepoints: -> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO supply chain. -> As $AVGO, $LITE, $MTSI, $SIVE InP foundries for optical transceivers -> then as the body/eyes of humanoids as the GaAs foundry for TOF lasers possibly mapping to Boston Dynamic Atlas -> With legacy from MediaTek / Qualcomm / $AAPL from their previous business. But Win appears to be bottom of the legacy drag (like with $SOI), with optical as one of their largest growth vectors. Then... Win has the largest TAM expansion/revenue acceleration out of almost any foundry: With: LEO, humanoids / CW laser, 800g, 1.6t, 3.2t optical transceiver massive ramp up over the next few years. Especially with Broadcom as their anchor client ( $AVGO owns ~5% of Win). $NVDA doesn't care who makes the lasers, whether it's $LITE or $COHR. They just care if there's enough. There's not enough. -> Demand for CW lasers will likely go parabolic. (they make the lasers that companies like $SIVE designs) -> Demand for LEO satellites (SpaceX Starlink) will likely go parabolic. -> Demand for humanoids will likely go parabolic. As, Win Semi sits as a semi-monopoly chokepoint in the three most frontier and fastest growing industries for photonics/AI, robotics/humanoids, and space. Especially with Optical TAM explosion: Win fwd earnings for 2027 roughly in ~35x range, I do think this is sandbagging it and forward multiples will end up dirt cheap. Win will largely benefit from TAM expansion and accelerated revenue growth. Of course: Win will win. So I am long Win.

I’m long $SIVE at $140M. I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed. $SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers. Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck. But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles. They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova. And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally. 

 $POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers… But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself?

 It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B. 

 So now at $130m:

- - You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET. 

 - Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI. And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential. 

 On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”. 

And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers." 

Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come. 

I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt.

 It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week. Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo. 

Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in. 

Downside risk: 
- execution (as always) 
- dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others. - $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B
- CPO ramp gets delayed. 

I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC. 

Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier. 

 When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M. I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck). 

 But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up. Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers. 

 If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures. Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated. Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622. This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI. TLDR: InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations. 

 $SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp. 

I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst). 

 The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.