Brian Dew retweetet
Today from me: Job growth has been tepid over the past year. On the flip side, so has labor force growth, keeping unemployment in check. So what's the problem? nytimes.com/2026/04/03/bus…
English
Brian Dew
180 posts
Brian Dew
@bd_econ
Interested in economics and making charts https://t.co/e7NSFzjveE
Washington, DC Beigetreten Nisan 2016
266 Folgt407 Follower
@Gabber_Flasted @MichaelSLinden Sadly, all of the US is pathetic on this dimension. Right wing country does right wing stuff.
English
@bd_econ @MichaelSLinden Isn't there a robust childcare system in Minnesota and California? They have thousands of govt paid daycare centers...how is that govt sponsored childcare working out?
English
Good grief. In addition to being an *atrocious* message, it's wrong. It's wrong!
We can have nice things. We are a stupendously rich nation. With a better tax code, we could absoutely do "all these things" and more. Gotta stop giving out tax breaks to the rich though!
FactPost@factpostnews
Trump: We can't take care of daycare. We're a big country. We're fighting wars. It's not possible for us to take care of daycare, Medicaid, Medicare, all these things.
English
The US has plenty of financial resources for childcare but no infrastructure to implement it. This was a policy choice. We opened federal daycares in WW2. Nixon vetoed a bill in 1971 to build them. Good governments just do this stuff. It's not hard.
FactPost@factpostnews
Trump: We can't take care of daycare. We're a big country. We're fighting wars. It's not possible for us to take care of daycare, Medicaid, Medicare, all these things.
English
The rise in 10-year Treasury yields since the shock is driven almost entirely by a higher term premium, not by inflation expectations. briandew.wordpress.com/2026/04/02/wha…
English
Break-even employment growth has fallen dramatically from about 250,000 jobs per month in 2023 to near zero by late 2025, averaging about -3,000 jobs per month from August to December 2025. dallasfed.org/research/econo…
English
Comprehensive paid leave bills exclude many new parents due to work-history requirements and inadequate wage replacement for low-income families. vox.com/the-highlight/…
English
Why the stock market looms larger over the outlook for U.S. consumer spending than oil prices: Equities held at market value account for more than 25% of household net worth, the most on record in 80 years of data (bloomberg.com/news/newslette…)
English
@NickTimiraos The hiring freeze is causing a gradual build up of longer-term unemployed, discouraged workers, and people unable to find their first job. From the CPS microdata: briandew.wordpress.com/2026/03/26/the…
English
The no-hire, no-fire labor market.
The private-sector hiring rate fell to 3.3% in February, the lowest since Feb. 2010, when the unemployment rate stood at 9.7%.
The layoff rate, however, continues to hold steady at low levels.
Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos
Job openings for January were revised up, but the three-month moving average continues to gently grind lower through February There were 0.9 vacancies for every worker counted as unemployed in February, near the low for the current business cycle.
English
@Claudia_Sahm The hiring freeze is creating a slow accumulation of long-term unemployed, discouraged workers, and people unable to find first jobs. I dug into the CPS microdata a bit: briandew.wordpress.com/2026/03/26/the…
English
If you're looking for a job and it feels like a recession, you're not wrong. It's a very low hire economy.
BLS JOLTS release: bls.gov/news.release/j…
English
"The hires rate decreased over the month [of February 2026] to 3.1 percent. This was the lowest hires rate since April 2020 when it was also 3.1 percent."
Employers only brought on as many workers (as a % of payrolls) last month as during the depths of the pandemic. #JOLTS
English
JOLTS report shows the hiring freeze getting worse in February. I wrote about it recently and who gets trapped and why it points us towards taking ALMP a bit more seriously. briandew.wordpress.com/2026/03/26/the…
English
@byHeatherLong The hiring freeze is causing long-term unemployment to pile up, an increase in discouraged workers outside the labor force, and real hardship for young people trying to get their careers started. briandew.wordpress.com/2026/03/26/the…
English
Yikes.
The U.S. hiring rate fell to 3.1% in February, the lowest since April 2020.
This is a hiring recession. And Americans are feeling it. There were notable hiring pullbacks in February in hospitality and construction.
Bottom line: The job market was already frozen before the war in Iran began. It's worrying that a "no hire, no fire" situation could turn into a "no hire, start to fire" job market quickly if there isn't a resolution soon.
English
Brian Dew retweetet
“Democratic countries tend to be high-tax countries, because taxation and democracy reinforce each other,” writes Vanessa Williamson. Meanwhile, tyrants “avoid imposing taxes because they fear the obligations that come with any reliance on tax revenue.” fam.ag/4t76NsL
English
The unemployment insurance system, designed for temporary layoffs, misses most people affected by the hiring freeze. briandew.wordpress.com/2026/03/26/the…
English
A low-hire labor market traps people differently than a recession. The number of people unemployed 15 weeks or longer is up 45% since 2023. New post on what's happening and what could be done. briandew.wordpress.com/2026/03/26/the…
English
Brian Dew retweetet
This is an embarrassing error by the WaPo editorial board. Under no definition is it true that Sweden spends less than 1% of GDP on public pensions. At minimum, it is 7.8% of GDP.
James Medlock@jdcmedlock
This chart is misleading. Social security is middle of the pack when it comes to high end benefits. Here's a standardized comparison at 200% of the average wage, including mandatory social insurance. A high earning French couple would get more than an American one.
English
Private equity has invested in 8 of the 10 largest for-profit child care organizations in the United States washingtonpost.com/business/2026/…
English
The Iran war-driven gas price spike costs American drivers $9.4 billion per month, more than triple the monthly value of the tip and overtime tax cut itep.org/gas-prices-sta…
English
The combination of surging plug-in car exports and collapsing passenger car imports contributed roughly a quarter of China's trade surplus increase from 2022 to 2025. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/03/chinas…
English