Black B.I.G

There is a fundamental misunderstanding in markets surrounding liquidity and the probability of a recession 🧵 Unless your views account for how AI is retooling the economy, how globalization changes the entire trade flows and crossboarder flows, and how excess government spending impacts long-end rates, youre flying blind My entire goal is to map the macro regime so i stay on the right side of it and take large asymmetric bets The chart below is the first chart that visualizes WHY we are highly unlikely to move into a recession and HOW liquidity is moving across the risk curve. One of the ideas i laid out yesterday in the livestream is that higher long end rates represent that growth is much more resilient in the economy than people expect

End of Week Wrap: How Interest Rates Cause the Rise and Fall of Nations x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Here is the recording from the livestream today I covered: - Updates on PURR and ORCL - How interest rates are the asymmetrical linchpin - Why dollar liquidity is so important to understand - How to think through taking bets in the macro regime - And why I don't own a TV If you want the slide deck of everything I covered today, it will be sent out on the website today. Link to subscribe is in my bio

Unpopular opinion: Mashed potatoes & Atadindin sauce > 😭🔥 Nigerians, pls allow pounded yam to rest small & try this 👀 See how I made it 👇

@saidul_dev @allen_explains Can you please share the link on YouTube

@allen_explains One of the best course.

Most people will end today exactly where they started. Give this one hour instead. This lecture from Massachusetts Institute of Technology breaks down wealth, compounding, and long-term thinking in a way most financial advice never does. It’s less about chasing money and more about understanding how lasting wealth is actually built. Traditional finance often teaches you how to work inside the system. This helps you think about creating something that works for you. Watch it tonight and you’ll probably see money decisions differently by the end of the week. Small shifts in thinking can compound for years. Free to watch. Save it before you forget.

Reading the FOMC: How the Curve Reprices Powell's Last Stand capitalflowsresearch.com/p/reading-the-…

The Yield Curve, Inflation Risk, and Why the Curve Determines Risk Assets Through Earnings x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Delicious Okra soup 🥵😍

Reading the FOMC: How the Curve Reprices Powell's Last Stand x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

I am definitely going to try this. Buying bread now is risky

This bread toast looks so good and yummy 😍🥵

The Bloomberg terminal costs $25,000/year. The lecture that explains how to think like someone using one is free. Most retail traders spend years operating on the surface of a system they have never seen from the inside. Goldman interns get 2 months. This lecture gives you the same understanding in 60 minutes without the 80-hour weeks or the NDA. The traders who watch this tonight will ask different questions tomorrow. Read different charts. Make different decisions. Completely free. Bookmark this before you scroll past it.

83 minutes of an MIT lecture on PCA in Finance > 6 months of any "quant trading" course on YouTube You'll finally understand what factor models, eigenportfolios and covariance structure actually mean Bookmark & watch, no matter what

Jane Street pays $650,000+ a year for quants who understand this math of systematic trading. UC Berkeley just put the exact same knowledge for free in 1 hour. Bookmark & watch it today, no matter what. Then read the complete blueprint below.

Inflation expectations are the current driver of short-end rates As we pause into FOMC, real rates are falling As Warsh comes in, we will have a completely different inflation framework Even if we need votes for a rate decision, people have no clue how much of a regime change can actually take place

Rates are compressing before their next move FOMC and the PCE print will set the stage for whether long-end rates begin to rise and the curve bears steepens marginally The entire question is about HOW MUCH inflation risk is in the system Is it just short term energy prices or is it core inflation as well?

Interview I did last week with @MartyBent youtube.com/watch?v=vfeqvm…

If you stack the credit cycle, liquidity, AND positioning all together and connect it to the actual price action of the market, then you can have an informed view for WHERE we are going 🧵 Notice that geopolitical risk has collapsed in its impact on equities. I am not saying the actual risk of changes in the event has collapsed. You can continue speculating about ships in the little bathtub. What I am saying is that the market is saying that the IMPACT matters very little now.

It doesn't matter how much manipulation or policy errors the Fed makes; if you understand how to quantify the changes in money in the system with interest rates and FX, you will always know WHEN risks are building Long end interest rates and the currency ALWAYS show the policy errors by the Fed This is the entire point of how money works. All money that is anywhere has to come from somewhere. All of these flows net out. Interest rates and FX are two sides to the same coin that reflect these flows netting out.