Bread Crumbs Research

Question: do we still think dual class share structure is good for LT value creation in tech or not

VC strategy of using capital to anoint a winner in a space isn't really working because there is just so much capital and tech durability has diminished

@JohnHuber72 @neilcybart I think the question is how repeatable are returns that come from one major capital allocation decision in 15 years

@neilcybart Why would you exclude Berkshire’s Apple investment? It’s kind of like saying “without the iPhone, Apple wouldn’t have made as much money”. If Tom Brady wasn’t drafted, the Patriots wouldn’t have won so many SB’s. My view is you have to give credit to the overall body of work.

I still don’t understand how some people can look at Berkshire Hathaway and basically say “all is fine here.” Exclude Buffett’s Apple bet and Berkshire would be looking at 20-year underperformance relative to the S&P 500.

buying back shares when interest rates are 10+% and multiples are low will work just fine. buying back shares when rates are zero and earnings multiples are 30+ won't work etc

It's actually a good book but you need to understand the macro context under which these people operated and not take their playbooks as something absolute, rather opportunistic. Treat it as a set of case studies, don't overlearn from it

One of the really underrated points Dan Yergin made in The Prize (40 years ago now!) is that ever since Drake was punching holes in PA there has never been a stretch longer than 5 years without some major, deep, structural change to the oil market. Stil holds true

@Larryjamieson_ on the other hand, if it's just one decent idea per year why do you need vic

The thing that people don’t understand about VIC etc, is that it literally doesn’t matter about the average idea. Can you find one decent idea in there every year, or every two yearss? Yes. It takes you a few minutes every couple of days. You’re welcome.

Jack McClendon, CEO of Sienna Natural Resources on Why It's So Hard to Create a New American Oil Boom | Odd Lots

Your personality probably won’t change much in the next year or even in the next few, but it probably will change quite a lot over the next few decades. Odds are you’ll get more conscientious and agreeable, and also less neurotic. stevestewartwilliams.com/p/12-things-ev…

@BuffaloBillCo Fair

@breadcrumbsre The logical conclusion of these charts is intelligence is pointless beyond the ~70th percentile

some of these countries where rich people are actually dumber than poor ones 😂

@BuffaloBillCo some argue current inflationary regime started in 2018

@breadcrumbsre Why did the price not go up at all when we had the largest wave of inflation in 21-22?

just eyeballing lt gold chart - gold is going up during inflationary times. 70s, 2000s and seems like we are in a new inflationary cycle that started around 2023?

@SoundVision16 Whatever that means

@breadcrumbsre “Transformation costs”

Brad Jacobs playbook: - pump your stock hard, do podcasts, write a book, do whatever it takes to get premium multiple - add back every expense you can and make sure markets value you on grotesquely inflated earnings (adj EBITDA) - use overvalued stock to buy competitors

@WaterworldCapi1 @RyeNotBerben Extremely hard to innovate inside of a bureaucratic, bloated org. That’s for startups

Strong “ transitory” vibes in oil now. Alternatively, war is not getting resolved fast and we are in a new, permanently higher oil prices market regime and just entering straight into massive oil capex boom

coincidence or not (?) but long duration equities (quality compounders) have just blew up...

@kab604 google trends

Is there a quick way to asses brand 'health'/trajectory?Basically a one click/one-prompt way to assess brand health based on public information like Google Trendsm, website traffic etc and what have you?

@Divergent7651 It’s massively overearning. Cycle adjusted PE is about 15x

You can buy one of the best insurers in the world $PGR at ~10x GAAP net income right now. My best pick for under appreciated AI beneficiary. AI enhances data analysis Data analysis benefits underwriting accuracy Accurate pricing means lower policy prices for good insureds Good insureds moving to PGR means adverse selection for competitors Lower claims handling costs from automation means better margins Less fraud from AI enhanced fraud detection means lower operating costs Tell me what I’m missing or why I’m wrong