kab60
5K posts
kab60
@kab604
I like stocks that go up. Change my mind quickly. Try not to do dumb shit.
Beigetreten Aralık 2020
1.5K Folgt1.9K Follower
@kab604 Here's your bear case: Lindsell Train owns it
x.com/StockCompil/st…
Stock Analysis Compilation@StockCompil
WS Lindsell Train UK Equity Fund on Autotrader $AUTO : We spoke recently with the senior executives of Autotrader. As to its current depressed share price and the perceived threats of disintermediation to that business, the CEO said: “We think the best solution for Autotrader is to buy back as many of our shares as we can.” And, indeed, Autotrader has stepped up the pace of its existing buyback into share price weakness.
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@breadcrumbsre That's my default, but given AGI is here, it seems incredibly brute... Surely somebody vibecoded a brand tracker which aggregates numerous sources into a clean 'source of truth' and makes me not have to do manual labor like going to Google Trends...
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@thewritser Given AGI is apparently here, surely there has to be another way than having to speak to another human and relying on anecdotes
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@Cicero85487273 Maybe it's just me, but I don't see why these model companies would go after a niche mkt like cars with a left-side steering wheel, where the current monopoy makes 300m (even if they thought they could win it...).
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@Cicero85487273 Yeah, maybe you're right. Given Googles dominant position in search, I would venture they were in the best position to disrupt these sites though. With LLM's there are more options for consumers + a lack of focus/internal bandwidth, OpenAI perhaps being the best example
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@randomGump @dopamine_uptake I had to ask an LLM what that actually meant!😆Interesting point.
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@dopamine_uptake @kab604 This already exist for torrents with DHT based search, but torrent search engines still attract good traffic.
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@dopamine_uptake Yeah I just struggle to see how it would actually work with 16k independent dealers and the lack of homogenous inventory & data (which again turns over quickly). If you know it's all on Autotrader, why take the risk on such a massive purchase?
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@kab604 Not now obviously, in the future could well be, hence the derating....
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@dopamine_uptake Is that agent with you now? Would you be confident it actually has all relevant supply & data given +16k independent dealers in the UK and inventory turning over in weeks?
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@kab604 Why would I bother going to an autotrader specific agent when my general agent which does everything else for me and knows me intimately can do the job and curate a list of relevant cars from any source?
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@dopamine_uptake Also, as Google Ad costs goes up, it should favor the incumbent against potential upstarts.
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@dopamine_uptake If I was buying a 25k used car, I'd go to the place with the most supply to make sure I got a good deal. If people want a GPT-like chat interface/search function, it should be easy for Autotrader and the likes to adopt one.
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@dopamine_uptake Really appreciate it! I think it's a huge lift to recreate the supply, which turns over rapidly given depreciating nature of used cars. Even if demand-side wanted Agentic AI, there's no clear winner yet (GPT, Gemini, Claude), and it would be a big lift for everybody.
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@kab604 Yes, I don't think Booking/Google analogous. Agentic AI capturing customer demand and purchasing intent, AT loses gatekeeper role and gets pushed further down the stack, pricing shifts from value to cost (in the good case, in the bad case AT just one inventory source among many)
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@Edelweiss_Cap So either you were much less certain back then. Or I think you should work on position sizing if you're actually good at figuring out the odds.
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@Edelweiss_Cap It's just that hindsight is a funny thing. The certainty in your post would make me think you should have put at least 25% of your portfolio in it, given how rare these setups are. Yet it sounds like it almost didn't matter for overall returns, given it was a small position.
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(1/5)
Still baffled that so many value investors passed on $TSM in late '22 / early '23. Trading at $60-80 (10-12x P/E) with ChatGPT already out.
Despite the cyclicality, it’s always been a high-ROIC business with clear structural tailwinds.
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@Edelweiss_Cap How large of a position did you make it given how obvious it was?
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(5/5)
What kind of valuation was the "value" community waiting for to buy a quasi-monopoly?
I know it’s easy to say this in hindsight, but what else was missing for $TSM to be a "good" investment then? It was the ultimate "Value" setup: Great business, great price, great outlook
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@TomSmith839 But fuck me, I carry some heavy $four bags, and thesame could be said for that name although I disagree! What does seem obvious however is that too many folks think there's extra points for complexity... I made that mistake plenty myself! (mattr 🤡, $four tbd)
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@TomSmith839 It had all the hallmarks of a destroyer of fintwit wealth... 'off the beaten path', a GrEaT cApiTaL aLLocAtoR who read The Outsiders, numbers that needed wild mental gymnastics to woRk so 'screened poorly' (bcuz it's sjiiit?)
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