Cryptonary

@KobeissiLetter The pattern keeps repeating. Peace headline drops, yields barely flinch. The 20-year is at 4.98%. The 30-year hit 4.96% today. The long end is closer to the break than the 10-year. Yields aren't trading the war anymore. They're trading the debt.

Absolutely incredible: Minutes after the 10Y Note Yield rose to 4.43%, US officials said peace talks with Iran could come as soon as Thursday. However, yields continue to hold as skepticism over peace talks has grown, with the 10Y Note Yield now at 4.40%. Once again, we cannot afford the 10Y Yield nearing 5%.

Adding to this: the 30-year hit 4.96% earlier today and is holding at 4.95%. In April 2025, the 30Y surged 60 bps in a week, the biggest move since 1981. That's what forced the tariff reversal. The 10-year may be 20-30 bps from the debt spiral. The 30-year is 5 bps from where policy already broke once.

Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch.

Zero correlation means gold can go either way during a crisis. It went down. But BTC didn't just hold. It's up 8% since Feb 28 while gold is down 16%. The difference: gold gets sold to fund the war. BTC has no central bank to liquidate it. That's not unpredictable. That's structural.

Wrote today about how investors just got a big-time reminder that gold has *zero* correlation to stocks, not inversely correlated. Big difference. Good diversifier but unreliable hedge. Bitcoin is similar but w more correlation (0.45) w stocks. Both unpredictable but valid asset classes and shouldn’t be judged based on short time frames.

@AltcoinSherpa We called HYPE at $3 on the airdrop. The thesis was never just a perp DEX. It was the first venue where crypto rails replace TradFi plumbing. Oil, gold, S&P 500, all trading 24/7 while NYSE sleeps. The war proved the thesis faster than anyone expected.

$HYPE great move today; there was a bigger seller before (i think highstakes cap?) but really nice price action. I suspect this is going to continue given how much volume there is with commodities / everything else. HyperLiquid

We published equity research on Circle at $71 in January. First stock coverage for a crypto research firm. The thesis: CRCL is a natural hedge in a crypto portfolio. Rising rates and risk-off flows both expand USDC supply and reserve income. The Tether audit changes the competitive map. But the macro is doing exactly what the bull case needs: yields screaming, risk off, stablecoin flows growing. Short-term pain. Structural thesis intact.

CRCL -15%

This is the other side of the yield curve. The 30-year hit 4.96% today. Private credit is gating redemptions. Both are symptoms of the same thing: liquidity is being pulled from every corner to service $9.2 trillion in Treasury maturities this year. Not 2008. But the plumbing is under pressure.

Private credit is hitting its first real redemption stress test. Here’s the situation in plain English: After 2008, banks pulled back from lending due to tighter regulation. Private funds stepped in and filled the gap. They offered flexible loans with floating rates and higher yields than public markets. In a low-rate world, investors chased returns and diversification. The result was massive growth. Assets went from about $900 billion in 2019 to more than $2 trillion. Then rates spiked after the pandemic. Borrowers started feeling the pressure. Defaults began creeping higher, especially in software and tech where AI is disrupting business models. At the same time, underwriting standards had loosened during the boom years. Now yields are compressing as rates ease, and investors are starting to question valuations that are not marked in real time. A few high-profile blowups flipped sentiment quickly. Now redemption requests are rising across semi-liquid private credit funds. These include non-traded BDCs and interval funds that promised some liquidity, but not full liquidity. Here is the problem though. These funds own illiquid loans. You cannot sell them quickly without taking a big discount. So when too many investors want their money back at once, managers have limited options. They can hold more cash, tap credit lines, or sell assets at lower prices. All of those hurt performance and net asset value for the investors who stay. So what do they do? They gate redemptions. Most of these funds cap withdrawals at around 5 percent of NAV per quarter. When redemption requests jump to 9 to 11 percent or higher, which we are now seeing at firms like BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, Morgan Stanley, and Blue Owl, investors do not get all their money back. They get a prorated amount or sometimes a return of capital. In extreme cases, funds can pause redemptions entirely or support the fund with their own balance sheet. This is not a 2008-style crisis. But it is a real stress test of the model. The core issue has always been the same. You are offering periodic liquidity on top of fundamentally illiquid assets. Now we find out whether that tradeoff was worth it.

The BTC-gold divergence is the signal nobody expected from a war. Gold -27% correlated to the dollar. BTC +64%. During a conflict where the dollar should be strengthening. The correlation flip tells you what the bond market already knows: this isn't a flight to safety. It's a flight from duration.

In the table below, we see that the drawdown in the S&P 500 has now reached 7.6%, with breadth reaching moderately oversold levels. That drawdown masks a far bigger decline in valuations, with the trailing P/E down 20%. The MSCI EAFE and EM indices are down around 10% each. For the S&P 500 the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average is down to 20%, and the percentage above their 200-day is 45%. For the former, at major oversold extremes that number often falls into the single digits. We are not there yet, but seem to be getting closer to a selling climax. While crude oil prices did not make new highs last week, brent remained at triple digits ($119) while WTI ended the week at $98. The crude curve remained backwardated, suggesting that the oil market does not expect the stoppage to last more than a few months. Gold took a giant tumble on Friday, back to the recent range lows at $4,500 (down $1,100 from the high), while Bitcoin continued to show remarkable resiliency by holding at $70k. This has been one of the major signals over the past 3 weeks. Gold is -27% correlated to the dollar while Bitcoin is +64% correlated. That suggests a lot. Most of the fireworks last week actually occurred in the bond market. While credit stress in the SaaS-heavy private credit markets stabilized, the stress moved over to the long end of the yield curve. Both inflation expectations and real yields moved higher last week, with the 5-year TIPS break-even reaching 2.70% and the 10-year real TIPS yield reaching 1.99%.

@DeItaone The 30-year yield erased every basis point of the peace talk rally within hours. $760M knew before the rest of us. The bond market figured it out right after.

MYSTERY OIL TRADES SPUR SCRUTINY BEFORE TRUMP POST A sudden surge in oil and S&P 500 futures—$760M in trades over two minutes Monday—occurred just before Trump announced he was delaying strikes on Iran. The early trading spike had no obvious news trigger and foreshadowed the sharp market moves after Trump’s post. Similar patterns have occurred ahead of other Trump announcements, raising questions of possible insider activity.

One hour later. BTC broke $70K. Down $1,000 since this post. The 30-year is at 4.95%. The 20-year is at 4.98%. The market is answering the question.

Gold is down 16% since the war started. BTC is up 8%. The macro says sell everything. Financial conditions haven't tightened this fast since 2022. A month ago, markets priced four rate cuts this year. Now there's a 78% chance of zero. And yet BTC won't break. One of two things is true: Either BTC is the last domino and it's about to catch down to the $55-65K zone. Or the bond market is about to force the Fed's hand. The 30-year yield hit 4.96% today. Last time it crossed 5%, in April 2025, Trump reversed policy within 48 hours. We're positioned for the first. Risk off. But the second satisfies faster than most people are prepared for.

@felixprehn Great thread. The missing variable: where does the capital go next? Gold’s recovery needs the Fed to ease. The bond market won’t let it. 30Y approaching 5%, $9T to refinance this year. Until yields roll over, the exit from gold has no return ticket.

Gold just had its worst weekly performance since 1983. But this makes zero sense - it's the ultimate save haven asset that institutions and investors buy during times of crisis. In this thread, I'll cover the two reasons behind this unexpected crash:🧵

@unusual_whales Gold -22%. BTC +7%. Same war. The safe haven label is being repriced in real time.

Gold is officially in a bear market, per CNBC Spot gold has now lost over 22% since hitting a high of $5,594.82 per ounce at the end of January.

@elerianm The dispersion is already visible in asset classes. Since Feb 28: BTC +7%, S&P -6%, gold -16%, silver -25%. Same war, completely different outcomes. The 24/7 asset reprices faster and recovers faster. Dispersion isn’t just geographic. It’s structural.

On the data front, we are beginning to see the first wave of releases capturing the fallout from the Middle East War, including this morning’s S&P Global PMI for the Eurozone which, according to Reuters, "fell to a 10-month low of 50.5 in ​March from 51.9 in February, as the war drove input costs to their highest in more than three years and triggered ​the worst supply chain disruptions since mid-2022. "The flash euro zone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as ⁠the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth," Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, ​said." Beyond the headline numbers, the dispersion within the Eurozone is notable. Already, we are seeing a gap in resilience, with France, for example, showing significant weakness, while Germany appears less so from the data. Expect this dispersion (one of the three themes for 2026, together with volatility and fragmentation) to be visible worldwide -- in countries, companies, and households. #economy #markets #middleeastwar #eurozone

@Crypto_McKenna $5.93B in HIP-3 volume. 46% of total platform flow is now tokenized traditional assets. Oil, gold, equities trading 24/7 on-chain while their futures markets close overnight. The war built this. Hyperliquid just proved the use case.

New all time high for HIP-3 daily volume at $5.93Bn executed. HIP-3 markets are now doing 46% of the total volume on Hyperliquid and account for 22.67% of the open interest. Exceeding every expectation I had and equally if we really do see huge growth in the adoption of perpetual contracts for traditional assets then this volume is a drop in the ocean. $HYPE

@Citrini7 The inner circle had a cheat sheet. It was called the 30Y yield chart. When it approaches 5%, the tweet is coming. You don’t need the inner circle. You need a Bloomberg terminal.

I’m ngl macro trading was more fun before the defining edge was whether you were in the inner circle of people who knew what the president was about to tweet.

@Sykodelic_ The chart structure is there. The macro isn’t. 30Y yield approaching 5%, financial conditions at their tightest since 2022. Technicals need the bond market to cooperate. It’s not cooperating yet.

This will start the most hated and confused rally. Once Bitcoin closes the weekly back above $74,400, it is running up to $200k. This is not the same as 2022, in any way. If/when Bitcoin reclaims this key HTF structure level, it confirms it as a deviation and commences an expanded flat reversal. And this will be the most hated rally we have ever seen because almost no one is expecting this to happen. Everyone is convinced of the 4 year cycle bear market, when there is mountains of data that disprove that we'll be following that path. The macro cycle could not be in a more different position. This move higher will rekt record shorts and sideline the most amount of people ever, which will only make it even more aggressive as the dumb af reply guys fomo back in when they realise they have FAFO'd. And i cannot wait for it. If you are not seriously considering this outcome, you are going to be caught offsides if it happens, and you won't have time to get back in.

@KobeissiLetter We flagged this earlier today. The 30Y approaches 5%, a headline drops. 24 hours later, yields are back. The bond market’s veto doesn’t expire. It resets.

Absolutely incredible: The US 20Y Note Yield is now back to 5.00% less than 24 hours after President Trump said peace talks were underway. The threat of 7% mortgages and $4.00 gas prices has become reality. Bond markets say this war is unsustainable.

@PeterLBrandt The fiddler has a conductor. The 30Y yield.

Trump plays the futures market like a professional fiddler

@ZiadMDaoud @vali_nasr @TheTerminal This is why Iran is in no rush. Oil revenues up, currency firming, and every day Hormuz stays closed pushes US yields higher and makes the $9T refinancing wall more expensive. The pain threshold isn’t symmetrical. Iran is getting stronger while the US bond market gets weaker.

My latest: If the Iran war is a test of pain thresholds, as @vali_nasr recently framed it, then the economy is giving Tehran some relief: • Oil revenues are up • Sanctions are easing • The currency is firming Full analysis on @TheTerminal

The pattern continues. Peace headline to relieve bond market pressure, followed by denial to maintain leverage. Iran knows every day without a deal pushes yields higher and makes the $9T refinancing more expensive. They’re not distancing from talks. They’re pricing their leverage.

BREAKING: Arab mediators have privately "expressed skepticism" that the US and Iran could quickly reach an agreement, noting that the two sides remained far apart, per WSJ. In a sudden turn of events, Iran is "distancing itself from talks" as Trump pushes for a peace deal.