Dan Ramsden

@GestaltU Assuming all else equal (including the trend line). But all else is never equal from one moment to the next. Consider all the things that can change along the way. In short, who knows?

Excellent. Another thing I wonder about in the onion analogy is the implied notion that an enterprise may grow or shrivel away but always still remain an onion. I don't think we are able to make that case anymore, if we ever were. (This mainly speaks to the DCF model, at the heart of "value".)

New Post (Part II in series) Value, Money, & Macro Graham's Code Won't Run on Modern Money OS $VALU.Q see bio and next post

@Apolloknius @pmarca Well, you know how it is, economic theories support so many things.

@d_ramsden @pmarca Bollocks. There is no economic theory that supports this idea.

Almost everything you think you know about the history of technology and capitalism was warped by communist/luddite propaganda of the era. That's happening this time too.

@mikeharrisNY This is true, and not only for this platform’s market analysis but universally, and not only for markets. We always and forever seek out the popular clique.

As this platform proves, the ability to exploit network effects and also use marketing is not necessarily correlated with the ability to analyze markets correctly, and in many cases it is anti-correlated.

@pascal_bornet @DrPippaM Music is not visible, ever, that’s what makes it music and why it’s enjoyed.

I didn’t expect a piano to make music visible but this does. That caught my attention. Someone spent three years trying to turn sound into something you can see. No AI. No screens. Just experimentation. They tried lasers, smoke, different materials. Nothing worked. Until they found something unexpected. Bioluminescent algae. A living system that glows when disturbed, turning each note into light. The first time you see it, it feels unreal. What stands out to me is not just the result, but the process. Innovation didn’t come from better tools. It came from combining ideas across disciplines. Technology. Biology. Art. So here’s something to think about: Where do the most meaningful breakthroughs come from today… deeper expertise, or unexpected combinations? #Innovation #Creativity #Technology #FutureOfTech

@UrbanKaoboy Great post and analysis. I think the bottom line for the software segment: those with strong network effects will use AI tools and not only survive but thrive, while those without will have a difficult time. Maybe this was always the case, but now more pronounced and accelerated.

UrbanKaoberg.com - There And Back Again I built UrbanKaoberg in less than a month with AI. This piece is about my journey down one of the most frenetic, creative rabbit holes I have experienced and my learnings from it. urbankaoboy.com/p/re-investing…

@financialjuice Thanks for the journalism.

Trump is getting a little bored with Iran. Not that he regrets it or something — he’s just bored and wants to move on - MSNow citing US Official. ms.now/news/trump-ira…

@dampedspring Great discussion, thanks for sharing. I’m not yet at the end but wanted to ask, since we’re rapidly approaching your washout-dipbuying levels even into today’s close, do you still feel the same a week later?

Hey folks. We at Damped Spring have been doing monthly roundtables. This one was recorded last Sunday afternoon. Given we expected a very big deal week this week we held it for clients. But it's still pretty fresh! Enjoy. drive.google.com/file/d/1njEUS4…

@zerohedge 1 and 15 are the same?

A ceasefire for a period of one month will be announced according to a mechanism that Witkoff and Kushner are working on, according to AI Arabiya citing Israeli Channel 12 The US aims at a month-long ceasefire The agreement with Iran is very similar to the understandings in Gaza and Lebanon A 15-point agreement will be negotiated during the month of a possible ceasefire. The 15 Clauses of the Agreement with Iran (Via AI Hadath) 1. Automatically cancel the threat of reimposition of sanctions. 2. Dismantling Iran's Existing Nuclear Capabilities 3. Agreement with Iran... Iran vows to "never seek" nuclear weapons 4. Preventing the enrichment of any nuclear material on Iranian territory 5. Delivery of enriched uranium to IAEA 6. Decommissioning and destroying the sites of Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow 7. Grant the IAEA full access to all information 8. Iran abandons 'proxies' approach 9. Stopping funding and arming militias in the region 10. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open without any closure 11. Postponement of decision on ballistic missile program 12. Ballistic missiles are only used for defense 13. Lifting all sanctions on Iran 14. Support for the development of a civilian nuclear program in Bushehr 15. Automatically cancel the threat of reimposition of sanctions via AI Arabiva citing Israel's Channel 12 and also via AI Hadath citing Israel's Channel 12

@pmarca Is that from Marcus Aurelius?

Introspection = neuroticism x narcissism x thumbsucking.

@mikeharrisNY Perhaps. The thing I notice more and more, I think, is that reactions these days are all intertwined with actions and sometimes even precede… which makes the reaction the action, I guess? Seems like a side effect of velocity.

@d_ramsden If there is no shift back to a proper balance of guns +AI and butter, AOC and the group will be in power sooner than some people think.

This is the ultimate ad-hominen reply I have seen in 16 years on social media, i.e., someone totally misrepresenting your thesis.

@mikeharrisNY Respectfully, it’s not possible because of (human) nature… another aspect of which is survival, so that factors into politics as well.

@d_ramsden It is not possible because people who benefit from it make the rules or influence those who do. Btw, I did not argue about redistribution, only for a "potential" for lower inequality because affordability will become the main problem of the next 10 years and will shape politics.

@mikeharrisNY Thanks, and again fwiw, I didn’t consider it a misrepresentation because it wasn’t any representation to begin with, was just a comment. But enough said. I agree with you about the task of a proper system, I only doubt that it’s possible, which I guess was the point of my reply.

@d_ramsden BTW, I didn't argue you are wrong but only that what you wrote misrepresented my post. I wrote about a potential for lowering the indisputable accelerating affordability crisis. The task of a proper system is to prevent what you wrote by efficient allocation of resources.

@mikeharrisNY Sure, Michael, happy to admit my misunderstanding. You’ve been very kind to understand my occasional blurbs, so least I can do.

@d_ramsden I'd hope you admit you misunderstood what I wrote, because I didn't write about equality. I wrote about the fundamental objective of economic science, which is a better distribution of resources. Currently, most resources are allocated to AI and defense: guns and AI, no butter.

@mikeharrisNY I guess I have a more cynical view, and, like I said, didn’t think I was attacking anything. No matter. Take care.

@d_ramsden "potential for lowering inequality" is equality Dan?

@mikeharrisNY I like many things, Michael, one used to be the occasional conversation with you. Oh well.

@d_ramsden I wrote about better allocation of recourses to improve inequality and you equated this to communism. Probably you like being ad hominen.

@mikeharrisNY It’s all the same phenomenon. We get to the same place.

@d_ramsden How did you infer that from what I wrote? It is unrelated to what I wrote. I did not write about communism. I wrote about preventing capitalism turning into feudalism but I realize you don't get it.

When some economists talk, I feel like I'm in a parallel universe. Even crypto terminology is easier. Overcomplication has an agenda to distract. The objective of gov should be to direct resources where there is potential for lowering inequality. There are doing the opposite.

@pmarca I don't think introspection or non-introspection is the issue, but perhaps formulaic (often binary) thinking is.

I’m now getting a ton of positive messages from the anti-anti-anti-introspection crowd, thank you all.