Daniel Gottlieb

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Daniel Gottlieb

Daniel Gottlieb

@danielgott

Professor at USC. Previously MIT, Wharton, WashU, LSE. Usually tweets about Economics, sometimes in Portuguese.

Los Angeles, CA Beigetreten Kasım 2019
347 Folgt4.6K Follower
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Noah Williams
Noah Williams@Bellmanequation·
Story about Sims: One day in 1st year PhD econometrics, he's working through proof of the central limit theorem, occasionally glancing down at a sheet of paper. He's almost done but get's stuck at one point. Backs away, looks at the paper for a bit, then finishes the proof. [1/2]
Noah Williams@Bellmanequation

Spurred by @GautiEggertsson, here is Chris Sims showing up in footnote #1 for 2 additional Nobel prize papers: Kydland and Prescott (1977) and Hansen (1982).

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Daniel Gottlieb
Daniel Gottlieb@danielgott·
A propósito dos impostos de importação sobre bens de capital e informática, vale comparar a pauta de exportação do Brasil (renda per capita US$ 10.500) e da Austrália (renda per capita $70.000)
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Daniel Gottlieb@danielgott·
@alexolegimas This was last year. I've been using the pro now, which only makes professional mistakes.
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Alex Imas
Alex Imas@alexolegimas·
@danielgott Which version are you using? Try the pro version with thinking.
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Alex Imas
Alex Imas@alexolegimas·
Friends do not let friends use off-the-shelf AI models to study human behavior. There are now several excellent papers demonstrating that AI *agents*---with proper scaffolding and trained specifically on human data---do emulate human behavior and beliefs quite well.
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Jay Van Bavel, PhD@jayvanbavel

AI does not engage in motivated reasoning While individuals processing information may be motivated to reach a certain conclusion, LLMs have no such motivation and operate on purely cognitive input. As such, they do not mimic humans in motivated reasoning tasks. As such, we should be cautious about using them to mimic human political decision making. arxiv.org/pdf/2601.16130

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Daniel Gottlieb
Daniel Gottlieb@danielgott·
@alz_zyd_ That’s probably true about the undergrad at Chicago, but I doubt it was the case at most other schools. The paragraph below is from the most influential textbook of the 20th century.
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alz
alz@alz_zyd_·
The good part of economics as an undergrad major, really, was the neoliberalism. The math was always kind of mid. As the lefties are taking the neoliberal propaganda out of econ undergrad, they are removing precisely what made the major sell so well
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Daniel Gottlieb
Daniel Gottlieb@danielgott·
@alz_zyd_ 3rd wave pour over is like American football. America dominates a sport no one else in the world cares about.
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alz@alz_zyd_·
The US is very much a food culture leader in the world recently. Third-wave coffee and the craft beer revolution, IPAs, etc for example were both US-led phenomena
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Daniel Gottlieb
Daniel Gottlieb@danielgott·
@alexolegimas The beef-cheese-pineapple sandwich at Cervantes in Rio beats any Philly cheesesteak. Not even close.
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Daniel Gottlieb
Daniel Gottlieb@danielgott·
@alz_zyd_ Intuitively I’d say the resulting allocation would be more fair, but I’m not sure whose preferences we are talking about.
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alz@alz_zyd_·
@danielgott yeah, I think it ends up being a tradeoff between more short lives and less long lives, do you think there's any "preference for variety" at the level of human lives
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alz@alz_zyd_·
If we solve aging and everyone lives forever, but we stay on earth, then at some point there will be a stationary population of immortal humans on earth, meaning there won't be any space for more humans. How do we weight the welfare of the living versus the unborn?
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Daniel Gottlieb
Daniel Gottlieb@danielgott·
@alz_zyd_ For turnover to be optimal, one could assume diminishing utility from lifetime duration.
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Daniel Gottlieb
Daniel Gottlieb@danielgott·
@alz_zyd_ I don’t think that’s true. Assuming equal weighting of born and unborn and linear utility in lifetime duration, any turnover merely replaces a finite number of lives with an equal number—leaving welfare unchanged. If unborn are weighted less, turnover reduces welfare.
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Daniel Gottlieb
Daniel Gottlieb@danielgott·
There’s no better place for a behavioral economics seminar than @UCBerkeley Enjoyed the comments and the beautiful weather!
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Daniel Gottlieb
Daniel Gottlieb@danielgott·
@alz_zyd_ I tried asking o1 to do some basic calculations today and it still got some of them wrong.
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alz@alz_zyd_·
Now that my exams are in... I wrote hard enough take-home finals that I was AI-resistant for the last few years, but I think I need to change strategy now. o1 is too good. It aces anything that's remotely close to doable for my MBA students
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Daniel Gottlieb@danielgott·
Looking forward to tomorrow's ECORES PhD lecture series
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Daniel Gottlieb@danielgott·
Happy to be co-chairing this year's Conference on Social and Behavioral Finance (with @4misceldah). Looking forward to the presentations.
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