dime

It’s going on to 15 and counting…

Pasternak to Evelyn ha every time Ct bullied him

holy fuck, a hair dryer at a Paris airport broke Polymarket weather markets & made someone $34,000 richer - polymarket was settling Paris temperature bets on a single Météo France sensor sitting near the Charles de Gaulle runway perimeter - basically unguarded - the guy bought the long-shot outcome (like "22°C" when everyone expected 18°C) for pennies, since nobody thought it'd hit - then he walked up to the probe and briefly heated the air around it with a portable heat source, spiking the reading just long enough to register as the daily max - temperature snapped back to normal in minutes, the market resolved in his favor, and he cashed out - twice, on April 6 and April 15, before Météo France caught on and filed charges hyperstitions.

SAM BANKMAN FRIED PICKED EVERY WINNER OF THE 2020s AND HIS LAWYERS SOLD THEM ALL AT THE BOTTOM. If the FTX estate hadn't panic-sold its assets during bankruptcy, SBF would be sitting on a $114 billion empire today. Instead, he is watching the greatest trades of the decade from a prison cell. The data is almost impossible to believe: - Anthropic: $82.3 billion (165x) SBF bought an 8% stake for $500M. The estate sold it for $1.3B in 2024. Today, that stake would be worth over $80B. - SpaceX:$15 billion (75x) A massive stake liquidated early to pay creditors. - Solana: $5.1 billion (27x) SBF was an early backer at $8. The estate offloaded a massive chunk at $64. - Robinhood: $4.9 billion (8x) - Genesis Digital: $3.5 billion (3x) The Latest "Missed" Fortune: CURSOR In 2022, Alameda Research wrote a tiny $200,000 check for a 5% stake in the AI startup Cursor. In April 2023, the bankruptcy estate sold that entire stake back for exactly what they paid: $200,000. Yesterday, SpaceX announced a deal to buy Cursor for $60 billion. That "worthless" 5% stake would be worth $3 billion today. That is a 15,000x return that vanished because the lawyers wanted a quick exit. SBF was a genius at picking generational winners and a criminal at managing their money. The lawyers recovered $18 billion for users. If they had just held, they would be sitting on $114 billion and the most valuable venture portfolio in history.

Listened to the Threadguy and Cobie stream and it made me realize I had a bias about Threadguy that I never actually earned. I never really sat with his content, just clips and the takes people pile on him for. Most of it seems to come down to him being genuinely excited about things that are new to him. Which, honestly, is one of the better qualities you can have when you are young and learning in public. Good reminder to audit where your opinions actually come from. Credit to him for being himself.