Eylon Levy@EylonALevy
⚠️The Iranian regime just fired a long-range ballistic missile at Diego Garcia, and here’s why that matters.
It means Iran’s missile industry was far more developed than widely believed. @CSIS put Iran’s maximum range at 2,000km. @Israel_Alma_org said 3,000km.
But this was nearly 4,000km away, potentially putting London in range.
It’s a reminder that intelligence is far from perfect, and you never know *exactly* what the enemy’s capabilities are. And that’s critical for what it means for a threat to be “imminent”. The idea that the world could safely wait till Iran was one minute away from a nuclear warhead is insane. Secret weapons programs are by definition secret.
If an enemy regime is threatening you with death, you would have to be insufferably arrogant (like many foreign diplomats, commentators, and politicians) to believe you know what it’s capable of or when the “last minute” is to thwart it. You have to factor in a margin of error, or margin of humility. When the regime cries “Death to Israel, Death to America,” it’s suicidal to risk waking up one day and finding it’s much further along than you thought.
Beware.