Lee R.

The last 10-days have been unlike any 10-day period in the market since 1950. First, the S&P 500 is up 9.8% in 10-days, which is in the 99.7th percentile of all 10 day returns.

🤯 Coffee with anchovies is going viral People are trying it and can’t believe it: the taste is surprisingly good, and the smell hits so strong it wakes you up instantly. Would you try this weird combo?

186K jobs vs 65K expected is a 2.86x beat. But the ADP print has a nasty habit of being revised — 12 of the last 16 ADP reports were revised lower. The real test is Monday's NFP. Meanwhile oil above $111 is a $400B annualized tax on the US consumer. Job growth looks strong until you realize energy costs just ate every wage gain.

JUST IN: Artemis II crew experiences issues with Microsoft Outlook on their way to the Moon, asks ground crew for assistance.

Apollo's Slok: There is a difference between what consumers are saying and what they are doing. Weekly data on consumer spending remain strong, daily data on airline travel remain strong and weekly data on hotel demand remain strong. A full review of all publicly available daily and weekly indicators shows no signs of demand destruction. Markets are overreacting to what will likely be a 4- to 6-week period of volatility, which will ultimately result in 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and geopolitics. The Gulf region will become more stable and even more closely integrated with the global economy. For the Fed, the rise in inflation due to higher oil prices is temporary; once the conflict is over, Fed cuts will be priced in again, and long rates will decline. The bottom line is that the Iran shock is not big enough to offset the strong tailwinds to the US economy from AI spending, the industrial renaissance and the One Big Beautiful Bill.

When Copernicus proposed heliocentrism in 1543, it was actually less accurate than Ptolemy's geocentric model - a system refined over 1,400 years with epicycles precisely tuned to match observed planetary positions. It took another 70 years before Kepler, working from Tycho Brahe's unprecedentedly precise observations, replaced Copernicus’s circles with ellipses - finally making heliocentrism empirically superior. Terence Tao's point is that science needs a high temperature setting. If we only fund and follow what's most state of the art today, we kill the ideas that might need decades of work to surpass some overall plateau.