Futures only

896 posts

Futures only

Futures only

@futures_only

Beigetreten Ocak 2022
56 Folgt28 Follower
Ryan Whitney
Ryan Whitney@ryanwhitney6·
This is domination by the Flyers. Martone is a joke. What a shot. What is going on in Pittsburgh. 14 shots. Will Flyers fans still say Tochett sucks?
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Ivan the K™
Ivan the K™@IvanTheK·
This is a must-watch from @dee_bosa, if you're into the AI game as a user or investor. It's reminiscent of the early dotcom game where metrics were not really tied to actual economics. cnbc.com/video/2026/04/…
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Patrick Fete
Patrick Fete@PatrickFete·
@patrickhund1 @bert_gilfoyle @futures_only At some point the responsibility simply falls upon the owner to sell. Easy to become disillusioned by promises of $30 near term and forget that it would be prudent to trim huge gains. Selling doesn’t equate to bearishness, nor need announcement
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Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️
If you listen to it again with the benefit of hindsight, the $EOSE Q3 earnings call was a massive sales pitch for the upcoming equity raise. We should have seen it coming, but hindsight is 20/20. I sold all of my calls, and about half of my commons at the top. Mainly, to give me a 10+ year runway on replacing my salary for an early retirement. But I should have sold it all and stuck to my original analysis of the situation, instead of being skewed by others. That raise was pretty epic. $700m cash on the balance sheet and negligible coupon interest rate. I can't help but feel we contributed to an investment environment that helped make that happen. Raising capital by giving good speeches is a much different skill than doing the blocks and tackles that produce quality batteries and commission them in a timely manner and delight customers. Quality is much more important than schedule in the utility business. I hope they've reassessed and have a solid recovery plan.
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Josh
Josh@JoshTradeOption·
$EOSE is looking strong here. When we all panicked after Q1, I decided to buy these Jan 21 2028 $7.00 LEAPS which are now in the money. They are up nicely. Did anyone else add in the 4s?
Josh tweet media
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Dan on Golf
Dan on Golf@DanOnGolfShow·
"If it's not dead, it's circling the drain. It's in the intensive care unit."
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Howard Lindzon
Howard Lindzon@howardlindzon·
Finger reattachment week 3 … healing fast now Amazing surgeon… pain almost gone and almost full sensation
Howard Lindzon tweet mediaHoward Lindzon tweet media
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SportsCenter
SportsCenter@SportsCenter·
Jason Kelce is rocking a full caddie outfit for the Par 3 Contest 😅
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Brian Sullivan
Brian Sullivan@SullyCNBC·
Won’t happen unless money goes into some kind of “security pot” everyone shares. Otherwise non starter.
Russell@russell_m

@SullyCNBC I made a post with the math. 100 ships per day, $2m per ship, is handing Iran over $70B per year.

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Oilersnation.com, Oily Since ‘07
Gene: Will you win the Norris Evan? Bouchard: Well I’m lighting the league on fire you tell me
Oilersnation.com, Oily Since ‘07 tweet media
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Howard Lindzon
Howard Lindzon@howardlindzon·
Been watching 'The Knick' on HBO again...juso so good. The Pitt but 1900 Manhattan
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Futures only
Futures only@futures_only·
@StockSavvyShay Going to China! Allies of Iran. Maybe some additional context is needed.
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Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
More vessels are moving through the Strait of Hormuz today in what looks like the strongest traffic since the war began. That may have been the clearest sign yet this U.S.-Iran conflict was closer to the end than the beginning.
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Futures only
Futures only@futures_only·
@bert_gilfoyle Why is this so hard to figure out, they are low balling to raise later on to give themselves some wiggle room after the catastrophe of Q4
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Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️
$EOSE Joe said coming out of Q1, Line 1 hit 100% capacity utilization (2 GWh/yr) run rate. But, assume 90% capacity utilization throughout the year, and a modest finished product cycle time improvement from 18 seconds at the beginning of the year to 17 seconds by the end of year. All the while, (I'll assume very pessimistically) ASP decreases from $217/kWh to $208/kWh by the end of the year. That's 1.95 GWh produced by Line 1 and revenue of over $400M. Now add Line 2. I'll assume a ramp up of 8% in Q2, 38% in Q3, and 77% in Q4, and won't even credit an improved finished product cycle time, which was the whole point of the new line design in the first place. That results in a total Q4 run rate of about 3.6 GWh in Q4. And again using this very pessimistic ASP, that's still over $550M. Nothing adds up to the guidance, unless you assume some significant idle time for one or both of the lines. Especially, considering a more reasonable ASP. The top line guidance does not assume a smooth ramp up to a 4 GWh/yr run rate. The mixed messaging here has been beyond absurd.
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️@bert_gilfoyle

$EOSE A few thoughts. 1. If this new design drives down cycle time, increases throughput, supports redundancies etc., why is it still rated at 2 GWh/yr? 2. If they ramp to a combined 4GWh/yr run rate by EOY, in no world can they make only $300-400m. How do you reconcile this? Significant idle time in one or more lines from time to time? 3. When will the company be requesting an approximately $117M disbursement for this line? 4. Is the company still planning on following through on the DOE Project Amaze? Lines 3 and 4 would need substantial completion by December to qualify for reimbursement. That's $84M of efficient capital on the table. Is the plan that between the improved throughput of Lines 2 and 3, Line 4 is not needed to complete Project Amaze? Go back to question #1.

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Jack Michaels
Jack Michaels@EdmontonJack·
It’s been a privilege to see all 400.
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Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️
Again, I readily admit I could be wrong about this. But, I really don't think I am. And if anyone else has alternative explanations, I'm all ears. Issues like these are common in early manufacturing ramps of nascent technology. But, the damage has already been done. The important part for the company is to not just look back and beat yourself up about it, but to identify the problems, formulate the fixes, and move forward. And, as investors, we should not stay blind to these problems. We should instead be skeptical and trust our judgement when we have more questions than answers. The company has burned a lot of trust. It will be much more difficult to raise capital in the future. Fortunately, they seem to have a long runway at this point before they'll need to again.
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Oilersnation.com, Oily Since ‘07
Who's to blame for the Edmonton Oilers struggles this season? Oilersnation Everyday Presented by Bright Dental.
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