GrossBit, Zec Golden Blob

@thedefivillain Getting billions in contract from Uncle Sam

One guy is long $100M+ worth of $WLFI and still has $50M in buy orders in the books I don't get what his endgame is

@thedefivillain So that’s what is going to happen…

It's quite simple: - There is no threshold level on BTC that suddenly puts $MSTR in much greater difficulty than before. - But the lower the price of BTC goes (and stays there), the harsher it gets for MSTR, in a mostly linear way It's not rocket science and there's no big secret: all the metrics about Strategy are completely transparent and clearly displayed on their website. It's not complicated to see how they could suffer... The credit risk is definitely overblown in the sense that people think there's a realistic scenario that could kill MSTR in the near future: that's just plain wrong. Is there a scenario that can inflict a lot of pain on MSTR? Absolutely, but that scenario is essentially a long and slow suffocation through BTC price bleeding for a long time.

It’s pretty obvious there is a huge kickback scheme enriching Saylor. That’s why he is executing BTC buys as soon as he gets funds Every week when people buy MSTR he buys himself a new boat.

HyperLiquid

@VincentBuLu1 @grok is the liquidation price correct ?

Trend Research has sold 112k+ ETH from its billion-dollar Aave position, down to 488k ETH (~$1.05B). Facing $862M liquidation risk if prices hit ~$1,830. Recent 10k ETH deposit to Binance for sales. #ETH #DeFi

@irboz misère de Malher !

L'hedge fund en question, Mahler Capital, a perdu 78 % de ses fonds en novembre 💀 La liquidation du 10/10 a fait tellement mal à des centaines d'acteurs...

@VitalikButerin what good does it do to ETH price or L2 token price ?

Have been following reactions to what I said about L2s about 1.5 days ago. One important thing that I believe is: "make yet another EVM chain and add an optimistic bridge to Ethereum with a 1 week delay" is to infra what forking Compound is to governance - something we've done far too much for far too long, because we got comfortable, and which has sapped our imagination and put us in a dead end. If you make an EVM chain *without* an optimistic bridge to Ethereum (aka an alt L1), that's even worse. We don't friggin need more copypasta EVM chains, and we definitely don't need even more L1s. L1 is scaling and is going to bring lots of EVM blockspace - not infinite (AIs in particular will need both more blockspace and lower latency than even a greatly scaled L1 can offer), but lots. Build something that brings something new to the table. I gave a few examples: privacy, app-specific efficiency, ultra-low latency, but my list is surely very incomplete. A second important thing that I believe is: regarding "connection to Ethereum", vibes need to match substance. I personally am a fan of many of the things that can be called "app chains". For example I think there's a large chance that the optimal architecture for prediction markets is something like: the market gets issued and resolved on L1, user accounts are on L1, but trading happens on some based rollup or other L2-like system, where the execution reads the L1 to verify signatures and markets. I like architectures where deep connection to L1 is first-class, and not an afterthought ("we're pretty much a separate chain, but oh yeah, we have a bridge, and ok fine let's put 1-2 devs to get it to stage 1 so the l2beat people will put a green checkmark on it so vitalik likes us"). The other extreme of "app chain", eg. the version where you convince some government registry, or social media platform, or gaming thing, to start putting merkle roots of its database, with STARKs that prove every update was authorized and signed and executed according to a pre-committed algorithm, onchain, is also reasonable - this is what makes the most sense to me in terms of "institutional L2s". It's obviously not Ethereum, not credibly neutral and not trustless - the operator can always just choose to say "we're switching to a different version with different rules now". But it would enable verifiable algorithmic transparency, a property that many of us would love to see in government, social media algorithms or wherever else, and it may enable economic activity that would otherwise not be possible. I think if you're the first thing, it's valid and great to call yourself an Ethereum application - it can't survive without Ethereum even technologically, it maximizes interoperability and composability with other Ethereum applications. If you're the second thing, then you're not Ethereum, but you are (i) bringing humanity more algorithmic transparency and trust minimization, so you're pursuing a similar vision, and (ii) depending on details probably synergistic with Ethereum. So you should just say those things directly! Basically: 1. Do something that brings something actually new to the table. 2. Vibes should match substance - the degree of connection to Ethereum in your public image should reflect the degree of connection to Ethereum that your thing has in reality.

@saylor More Orange

More Orange.

@ThinkingUSD they make money with other people's money in management fees and kickbacks. They couldn't have bought as much as 5bn and made as much for themselves. Same for Saylor

Watching Tom Lee torch 6 billion dollars of other people’a money on fire longing ETH will never not be funny to me. He choose an unpumpable asset. What is even funnier is imagine he had chosen HYPE? He’d have made billions of dollars for his shareholders. I actually had a call with his team and tried to convince them the ETH DAT was a mistake but they hadn’t taken the time look into HYPE yet and sadly went with ETH.

@WazzCrypto We’re well under Tom Lee’s average price. Nothing is gonna stop the market to go welll below Saylor’s price

Think it's basically inevitable we will capitulate under Saylor AVG (currently 76K), I think around $74K would make the most sense, but market never behaves like you expect it to Still the most interesting level for me

@BobLoukas what do these green and red numbers mean

That was an epic two year run for gold. But the juice has been squeezed. On to the next.

@yieldsearcher Tech stocks are levered gold beta

So if gold and silver are turning out to be levered equity betas and TLT is down on a day like this, what is the flight to safety asset?

@dampedspring @blknoiz06 Reallocation from underperforming asset into more performing assets

@blknoiz06 What's happening? It's bizarre tbh

How low can this go? I own gold and don't own BTC but jeez. The whole digital gold thing is in absolute shambles. More like a fad collectible than money.

@Bluntz_Capital then gold back to 4000, and BTC to 60K, still within your ratio range...

agreed, i think btc/gold low is probably quite close, potentially 10% or so lower, but still very close. #btc

@ByzGeneral Unwind of MSTR short v BTC long position.

It's kinda crazy what kind of impact this news had today on bitcoin's price action.

@exquizitely Red Alert !‼️

Command & Conquer by Westwood Studios is 30 years old. It stands as one of the best RTS games ever made, being part of the early group of RTS games that paved the way for a whole genre. Dune 2 (1992), Warcraft (1994), Command & Conquer (1995), Age of Empires (1997), and StarCraft (1998) - those five are the pillars on which the entire industry was built. 90s gaming at its very finest.

@skyiszen my timeline, Bloomberg and etc .. still full of permabulls. "QE is coming" "sovereigns and pension funds are buying" "BTC must catch up with gold" "Saylor knows what he's doing" etc...

@gross_bit Not sure where your consensus is coming from. Most people (with capital) seem to be in the camp that 60s are inevitable.

BTC is at 87K Up 40% is (almost) ATH 122K Down 40% is 52K way below Saylor entry price. Funny how the consensus is 90%+ on the former which of both events happening first is probably more a coin toss with slight better odds on the downside with the momentum and option skew.

@TheFlowHorse Buying JPM and GS might be the way

Into the new year and moving forward: Bullish on anything crypto that is integrating with tradfi and just becoming part of the plumbing in markets and finance. Bearish on anything that tries to sandbox itself as just “crypto”.

2025 Crypto Year in Review