The ICEMAN retweetet
Just 35 days ago,
- Russian & Iranian oil was sanctioned
- Iran was not in control of the Strait of Hormuz
- The Strait of Hormuz saw 120 large crude vessels passing each day
- US had fully operational airbases across the Gulf
- F-35 was marketed as an untouchable stealth platform
- Crude oil at $60 per barrel
- Inflation was declining
- Global trade routes were stable
- US missile stockpiles were intact and undisrupted
- No large-scale drawdown of strategic reserves underway
As of Today,
- Russia is generating $620 million per day in energy revenues
- Iran is generating $185 million per day despite war conditions in Chinese Yen
- The Strait of Hormuz is effectively choked, with 250–260 vessels stranded carrying 400–450 million barrels
- US airbases across the Middle East have been repeatedly targeted, with key radar and defense systems degraded
- The F-35’s stealth narrative has taken a direct hit after battlefield damage from Iranian air defense
- Crude oil has surged to $105–110 per barrel, with an imminent supply shock building
- Over $100 billion burned by the US in offensive and defensive operations in just over a month
- 2,400 Patriot and 700+ THAAD interceptors fired, heavily depleting regional stockpiles
- 1,100 Tomahawk missiles used, a significant share of total inventory
- Global inflation is reversing course and set to accelerate sharply, already seen in Asian Economies
- The world is heading toward a synchronized economic slowdown
- What Will Happen Next (Already in Motion):-
The last pre-war crude shipments are about to land within days
A real-time supply shock follows immediately after
8–10 million barrels per day effectively disrupted from global flows
14 smaller Asian economies face complete shutdown within a week at $110+ oil
Strategic reserves are being drained rapidly, buying time, not solving the problem
Middle Eastern economies are entering a historic economic slowdown, with losses exceeding $200+ billion
Trade flows, logistics, and industrial output are beginning to fracture
End State Trajectory:-
Supply shock → Demand destruction → Trade contraction
Trade contraction → Lower dollar velocity → Liquidity tightening
Liquidity tightening → US economy sliding toward recession
As a result of these “unimaginable wins,” inflation is not contained, it is coming back with force, and this time through energy, supply chains, and global trade disruption all at once.
English
