seekinganythingbutalpha

不要误会我说的是一种“赢”。 战争只有输家，没有赢家。 我们面临的是一个多输局面：全球油价上升： 美国日本重回通胀，日元贬值。 中国化工上游提价，PPI通胀。 伊朗人流离失所，甚至有可能出现ISIS这样的问题。 资本逃离中东。 我只是指出，这里不是一个国家输。甚至也不是输得最多的。

目前的AI，除了写程序以外，其实基本很大程度是不可信的。 娱乐可以。很多人拿来工作，我很想知道怎么解决幻觉和可信问题？ 就连最受信任的claude, 幻觉问题也相当严重。

@AndyjiAGI Gemini我咋觉得幻觉更严重。

@ivanalog_com claude可不是幻觉见长的模型，gpt pro和gemini GA都是幻觉很少的模型，除了慢和其他模型不在一个维度

@Jiabiangou 潜意识里的事业心觉醒了。

@ivanalog_com 最近几个月不亲自写代码以后，工作上瘾了。每天有无数念头想完成，然后确实也可以很快完成。就跟小时候打游戏一样沉迷。难以想象现在居然沉迷上班。

@chris_chen2016 @octarrow 这就是error capture feedback and reflection layer，这里面有很多工作可以做。 这里面又分为是按规则做，还是找AI做。

@ivanalog_com @octarrow 用skill做一套反馈和检查系统，做个事情要过一遍流程。好很多

@Jiabiangou 那当然是，可信的目的是一个人可以顶更多的人。

@ivanalog_com 基本都是写完了要人过一遍 review。但就这，已经效率提升很多了啊。我感觉我现在一个人顶以前三五个人。

@octarrow sonnet 其实这方面比 opus强。

@ivanalog_com 我没遇到，我用的API，大部分时间sonnet4.6。当然我只需要它严格服从我的指令。服从性很好🤣

恒生指数去年九月以来基本平盘。 主要原因就是外卖三傻的拖累，三傻合计带来了大约750点（约指数的3%）的下跌，刚好抵消了能源，高股息板块的上涨。 还看不起人家传统企业。人家比这些业余选手专业多了。

这三傻这一年来的所作所为，感觉上就是三个没有CFO的乡镇企业。

@diamondrapids Thank you for providing the balanced view!

Still I wanna thank @ivanalog_com for sharing his perspective, our conversations always turn out to be massively enlightening (to me also)

Incorrect. Lebanon's destruction began when the PLO left Jordan and invaded the the country, leading to the Lebanese Civil War. That went on for 15 years, decimated the Christian population and led to the Lebanese diaspora (blaming the diaspora on Israel is borderline retarded). After that was settled, Iran-backed Shia Hezbollah took over. It's never ending. Alongside that and the 2005 Gaza pullout (left them irragated gardens and an election framework) only for them to immediately vote for Hamas. Israel since learned the hard way what happens when you pull out of these areas and leave a vacuum. It was different with the Sinai pullout because Egypt was an adequate power that can maintain order. Egypt spent unknown amounts keeping the islamists within its borders in check (e.g. muslim brotherhood). I've always believed that to be partially informed is worse than being uninformed. Even for very well read people like my friend here, misinformed confidence is sometimes the most problematic. Reducing the Middle Eastern Question to an 'Age of Empires' video game scenario is massively simplifying, to put it mildly.

@diamondrapids My view towards this matter is actually very similar to yours before this war. This war really got me to think if that is true or narrative. I have no idea why warring with Iran requires flatten Beirut buildings.

In fact, had Israel took over Lebanon when the PLO was still turning Jordan upside-down, this 'evil empire' would've developed a thriving lebanese nation and none of the tragedies including the diaspora would even exist. People from the region who know the history will tell you I'm right. @ivanalog_com

@diyas_1989 Beirut is being bombarded.

@ivanalog_com Why should france against bomb Hezbollah? Lebanese Christian gov ban Hezbolllah military…. arabnews.jp/en/middle-east…

黎巴嫩人的祖先是腓尼基人。 腓尼基人是地中海早期的商业民族，为了方便行商，他们发明了腓尼基字母，腓尼基字母就是大部分字母文字的直接祖先。 因此，腓尼基文明可以说是西方文明的起源之一。 我认识的大部分黎巴嫩人都聪明，勤奋，而且非常离奇的，帅气或者美丽。 以色列在摧毁黎巴嫩。

@diyas_1989 Only Christians. BTW, why is France silent on Beirut being bombarded?

@ivanalog_com current Lebanese r more likely to be french/francs considering they r likely to be the offspring of crusaders

@diyas_1989 Hezbollah Shia might be descendants of invaders, or converted local Levanter. Hard to tell today. However, they are all Semitic farmer/shopkeepers in essence, including non-European Israelis.

@ivanalog_com Also u need to tell the different of christian Lebanese and shia Hezbollah. Those Lebanese i know in USA r pretty much christians many of them have french education background before move to USA.

作为历史上屡经屠杀和占领的一个小民族，黎巴嫩侨民在海外非常成功。 墨西哥首富卡洛斯，黑天鹅的作者塔勒布，都是黎巴嫩裔。 那个高山峡谷和河流间的美丽国度，是中东真正的应许之地，然而也是无数野心家觊觎的沃土，黎巴嫩侨民回不去的故乡。

我一直认为，以色列对伊朗其实并无兴趣。 但是在一场大战的掩饰之下，吞并黎巴嫩，吞并腓尼基的故地，把黎凡特最精华，历史也最伟大的土地，民族和人口，置于自己的殖民之下，才是耶路撒等殖民帝国的真正目标。

@McFaul Dream harder

Shocking. But also reversible if we change our ways.

@financialjuice US withdrawal of funding to UN is a big conspiracy by China!

House report warns China leverages UN Troops and funding - Fox. Beijing's growing influence inside the United Nations is raising alarms after a new report from the House Select Committee on China warns the Chinese Communist Party is allegedly leveraging money, personnel and peacekeeping deployments to advance its strategic interests The report, obtained by Fox News Digital ahead of its release, outlines what lawmakers describe as a "systematic campaign" by China to reshape the U.N. from within - using expanded financial contributions, placement of Chinese nationals in key roles, and state-linked organizations to steer outcomes in Beijing's favor.