on tilt
4.5K posts


Listen. I don't think you can give 2 consecutive plans that were this accurate. Plan given last night. Long above 24560 Short below 24520. No Diddle in the Middle. Downside looking for bounce off 24326.75 retrace to 24520, if rejected, looking for 24000. Discord Room confirm... Paging #ICT @I_Am_The_ICT I now control the market. #NQ_F


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Friday isn't the volatility event. Monday is.
Quad witch strips out trillions in options today. All that gamma infrastructure, the dealer hedging, the pin mechanics. Gone by 4pm.
Then Powell speaks Saturday. Markets closed. No way to react.
Monday opens with a completely reset gamma landscape, a Fed catalyst nobody could hedge for, and buyback blackout still active. No corporate bid underneath.
$SPY sitting at 656 with the put wall at 650. I think we test that level Monday, maybe break it. The variance risk premium is screaming. Implied vol at 24, realized at 13. People paid up for protection that expires worthless today. The actual risk shows up when they're naked.
Everyone exhaling into the weekend is looking at the wrong day on the calendar.
What's your Monday game plan?
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@joeshortsqueeze This is why I think it’s actually better to completely block out all the macro nonsense.
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𝗟𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁.
When spot makes a new low and VIX refuses to make a new high, pay attention. That's a vol divergence. The options market is quietly telling you it doesn't believe the selloff has legs.
But most traders miss it because they're staring at candlesticks.
Here's how to read it properly. Pull up fixed strike vol on the front of the curve. If the market is selling off hard and fixed strike vol is flat or drifting lower, that's your tell. The people who price risk for a living are saying "we're not buying fresh protection here."
Think about what that means. If vol can't rally when the market is getting destroyed, what happens when spot bounces even 1%?
Vol gets annihilated.
So the real trade here is selling the vol that can't go up. Different expression, completely different risk profile, and way better risk-reward than just buying the dip. When you learn to trade in more than just the spot dimension, you find edge in other areas like VEGA.
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@jaytech877 Spoiler Alert: they're also market making in Bitcoin
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@toriotrades is this price action really all that different from any other day?
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After todays price action and movement, a life hack for OPEX trading:
just book a quick little trip Thursday-Sunday every quarterly expiration week, no screen get away, in the next state over, or province or country.
It'll be less costly than staring at the screens.
June 18th I'll be in Greece
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@sarcastic_hedgi @Mystral2042 don't you think they greatly exaggerated the move?
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@jaytech877 @Mystral2042 lol "orchestrated"
every single move that catches people wrong is now a conspiracy instead of just... being wrong about positioning
metals ripped bc real rates collapsed and everyone was underweight after a year of "inflation is dead" -- but sure, citadel did it
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