Kellan Grenier

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Kellan Grenier

Kellan Grenier

@kellangrenier

Bringing real estate prices onchain @Parcl || Best ball strategist @underdog || Advisor @Streamex & @stockcropper || Former pod 🐒 || Semis by training

Beigetreten Kasım 2019
3.3K Folgt3.5K Follower
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Kellan Grenier
Kellan Grenier@kellangrenier·
SpaceX recently filed its confidential S-1. Almost nobody has seen it yet. So @AugmentMarkets reverse engineered it, and I used that for a full teardown. Here's what a $1.75 TRILLION IPO looks like when you break it down segment by segment, year by year, through 2032. 🧵👇
The Pulse@TheAugmentPulse

.@SpaceX 's valuation went up 4.4x in 12 months. The S-1 is at the SEC but nobody's seen it. So we reverse-engineered it from every public data point we could find in today's Pulse from @AugmentMarkets: augment.market/pulse/spacex-s…

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Kellan Grenier
Kellan Grenier@kellangrenier·
I would also like to announce I am not interested in a friendship with @TomBrady
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Jonah Burian
Jonah Burian@jonah_b·
A lot of the founders in my DMs pitched me a on prediction markets. I think most of them are chasing the wrong opportunity… Prediction markets are now among the most competitive categories on earth. @Polymarket and @Kalshi are raising mind-boggling numbers, and traditional players like @RobinhoodApp are building their own products. The category has incumbents with massive liquidity, strong brands, and aggressive product roadmaps. For the startups building net new prediction markets, it’s worth asking: what is the unique edge? Some pitch adding new market formats as their wedge. I don’t know if this is defensible. Every incumbent is actively expanding into new formats. Look at what @Polymarket offered just a year ago compared to today. They ship new products by the week. If the incumbents can add your market type faster than you can build distribution, the advantage evaporates. Others argue that better tech is the wedge. Tech doesn’t appear to be a limiter on @Polymarket or @Kalshi. The platforms work. Users aren’t leaving because of a tech problem. In my opinion, the more interesting opportunity is packaging prediction markets into entirely new products for underserved customers. People who would never open a @Polymarket account but have a real need to express a view on some future outcome. An outdoor concert venue might want to go long on rain for Sunday night to hedge cancellation risk. A logistics company might want to take a position on port delays. These are prediction market use cases dressed up as risk management tools, sold through channels the incumbents might not touch. And you don’t have to reinvent the wheel. You don’t need to build the market, source the liquidity, or design the matching engine. You can plug into existing prediction market APIs and focus entirely on distribution and product. There’s a fair pushback about platform risk here. But @Polymarket is onchain and open, which makes this meaningfully less risky than building on a closed platform. I’m not saying a new prediction market will never break through. In many mature categories someone always finds a way. @HyperliquidX broke into perps, one of the most competitive verticals in crypto with many well-capitalized competitors. AI gave @CoreWeave an opening in cloud. But in each case there was a specific structural reason the new entrant won. Disclosure: We are @Polymarket investors. Take the above with a grain of salt
Jonah Burian@jonah_b

we have 20+ meetings set up with founders who cold dmed it has been awesome to see so many folks actively building cool things it's not too late to dm

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Dave Nadig
Dave Nadig@DaveNadig·
@RVanGrack @CFTC Which would be fine if the CFTC was a staffed and functional regulator. Hasn’t been for a while now. Hard to have a commission with no commissioners. One person sitting alone in a room doesn’t make a commission.
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Ryan VanGrack
Ryan VanGrack@RVanGrack·
If you’re debating how prediction markets are regulated by @CFTC, you’ve already conceded the point. By definition, that means these event contracts are swaps – and if they’re swaps, the CFTC’s jurisdiction is exclusive.
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Bloomberg
Bloomberg@business·
Ironically, America’s competitive edge has increased due to the Iran conflict, as the price of natural gas has soared in the rest of the world but fallen in the US bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Kellan Grenier
Kellan Grenier@kellangrenier·
@nickdevor_ Simple solution: shouldn't have been such a prick as SEC chair. One reaps what one sows.
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Nick Devor
Nick Devor@nickdevor_·
NEW: Gary Gensler didn’t mean for prediction markets to go this far. “I never once ever heard a member of Congress or their staffs suggest that the law they were writing, acting upon, and voting on was for our little agency, the CFTC, to have oversight over sports betting,” Gensler says. As CFTC chair under Obama, Gensler helped to pen the Dodd-Frank regulation that brought swaps under federal oversight. Prediction markets have relied on the intentionally broad definition of a “swap” to argue sports event contracts should be federally regulated. So, I asked him: Did he intend the definition of a swap to eventually encompass a contract that, for example, pays out if a basketball player scores more than 10 and a half points? “No,” Gensler says. He also takes issue with the idea that federal regulation should pre-empt state gaming law. “Nobody was intending to pre-empt the New Jersey state gaming commission,” he says. “It was politically not discussed, and if it had been, it would have been dead in Congress. Senators wouldn’t have voted for it.”
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Kellan Grenier
Kellan Grenier@kellangrenier·
Because why would the @NYSTaxDept website work ~30 hours before the filing deadline? It's not like the state isn't completely broke or something.
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Kellan Grenier
Kellan Grenier@kellangrenier·
A $UAL $AAL deal, on the other hand, would be an absolute loogie in the face of the Federal Aviation Act & Airline Deregulation Act. May as well just nationalize them as a unified flag carrier at that point. MAGA PATRIOT AIRLINES or TRUMP SHUTTLE (redux) or the like.
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Kellan Grenier
Kellan Grenier@kellangrenier·
I say this as someone who HATED this proposed deal as a JetBlue customer. But there was next to no merit to any of FTCs reasons to block that deal.
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Kellan Grenier
Kellan Grenier@kellangrenier·
This antitrust mockery is the counterweight you get when competency-deficient ideologues like @linamkhan are emboldened to block genuinely necessary M&A like $JBLU x $SAVE as a power trip
Josh Wingrove@josh_wingrove

The CEO of United Airlines is privately pitching some kind of merger with American Airlines, including to members of the Trump administration, sources tell @sidyoutwit, @allyversprille and @srimtaylor: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Kellan Grenier
Kellan Grenier@kellangrenier·
@doodlestein @mywealthapp The steelmen can't grok this 2nd layer logic. Ok, great, TurboTax has brand & is reliable. Even if that is the moat, and it matters bigly, margins have for sure peaked. Pricing power has a one way ticket to zero for a product like this.
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Jeffrey Emanuel
Jeffrey Emanuel@doodlestein·
@mywealthapp They absolutely will. The AI doesn’t just make it up. It uses a tool like TurboTax. It’s just that it costs nothing to use or under $20.
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Jeffrey Emanuel
Jeffrey Emanuel@doodlestein·
Probably not too late to short this thing. It sells a product that is meaningfully worse than what you can do already with current frontier models and agent harnesses. A year ago, this was still a pretty clunky and manual workflow. I had to use TurboTax last year and paste screenshots into GPT 4.5. I came up with an approach that worked well and wrote an article about it last year, but it was a pain to apply and wasn't automated. Now, you can literally just use my skill in Claude Code or Codex and it all "just works" and can give you strategic advice and far more sophisticated feedback than you could get from TurboTax, or even H&R Block for that matter. It's hard to think of another software company that is more exposed to these disruptive forces. Don't be swayed by an optically low forward P/E. The earnings could just start melting away at an accelerating pace. Is that really worth over $100 billion?
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Jeffrey Emanuel@doodlestein

Also, I should add that this isn't just for preparing your return, although it can do that extremely well. It's also a tax consultant in general that can tell you how to restructure your affairs to maximize tax savings, taking into account all the particulars of your situation. Like many of my recent "big" skills, it's so huge that you can really apply it over and over again in different ways and keep uncovering more ideas and strategies to explore. I'm planning to continue to expand and improve it and to keep it up to date with all changes in relevant tax laws. If you're a subscriber of my site and want me to add more stuff about any particular area or strategy, just let me know. It costs under $20 to e-file your Federal and state return using FreeTaxUSA, and that seems to be sophisticated enough to handle just about anything you'd reasonably want to do (unlike Aiwyn, which couldn't handle a situation where I lived part of the year in NYC and part in upstate NY). So for another $20 you can subscribe to my site for a month and use the skill to tap into a tremendous amount "operationalized expertise" that not only helps you to strategize, but which can literally file the tax returns for you. I don't see how that isn't unbelievably bearish for Intuit (maker of TurboTax), which charges $100+ for the stripped down version of their native software and even more for their web-based version, which you need to sit there like an idiot filling out manually. Interestingly, my approach in software development, where I use multiple different frontier models to check each other's work, also works incredibly well with tax preparation. Codex found tons of mistakes that Claude Code made, but Claude Code also had a lot of insights that Codex missed. Even Gemini had a couple good thoughts (although it was mostly wrong and overly cautious).

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