lance b.
78 posts
I actually think $FLNC should be a lot higher.
The implications of having 2 incoming direct hyperscaler contracts in 1 quarter is enormous.
$MSFT to $AMZN don't sign tiny deals.
Obviously markets like to wait more until actual news/purchase order numbers come out... in the off-chance it doesn't go through or lower than expected.
But a company doesn't just randomly announce 2 hyperscalers MSas and an expectation of the orders to hit Q3.
Also winning multiple hyperscaler deals, in a single quarter is a leading indicator for more, especially as Fluence BESS becomes standardized.
Given short interest is around 27.69%, I'm not sure if pre-earnings short sellers are very comfortable to take a risk...
I think there's a chance for a generational run if a hyperscaler like $GOOGL signs a massive contract.
rockwell0790@rockwell0790
@aleabitoreddit @Jess252530 Buying the flnc dip as well
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@aleabitoreddit @Jornka329996 Why is $FLNC dropping even though you still believe in it long term? Do you think it’s still a good entry point at the current price?
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And now $LPK is #19 on the list of my individual stocks that returned 100-1000%+ YTD.
After going up +4.57% today.
Usually 1 or 2 is good, but I’ve written about and went long on 19 different stocks this year that went up triple digits.
I’m kinda impressed with myself ngl?
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
I guess, post earnings when $ARM touched $268... $ARM is now #18 on the individual stock list that I went long on that hit 100%-1000%+ YTD? I've lost count TBH. Some others like $LPK and $SIMO and $HPS.A are getting really close now. But feels like I'm one of the few ones out there on X with actual receipts of all the returns + original thesis post.
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@aleabitoreddit @Jornka329996 trying to be bullish on this one :)
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@Jornka329996 I’d be disappointed if $FLNC didn’t triple digit return in two months.
I’m trying to hit 30
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Just a TLDR of recent semi developments:
1. $TSM pushing hard CoPoS - VisEra/others might go brrr earlier than expected.
2. $AAPL goes with $INTC for semi production, which is a major shift cause they normally go with TSM. Made in America go like Intel go brrr.
3. $NVDA Vera Rubin reportedly makes changes to cooling architectures very recently.
"Taiwan's thermal management suppliers are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the AI hardware ecosystem" - From Last Month.
"Vera Rubin server architecture is expected to drive a fundamental shift in data center cooling and system design"
Will cover thermal ecosystem later, maybe it's time to take a look?
4. 2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market
Macronix, Windbond go brrr. implications for GigaDevice and other niche players.
5. "Big Tech reportedly offers to fund SK Hynix fabs and EUV"
- Memory that badly bottlenecked that mag7 wants to pay for it, so $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung go brr.
6. $TSM 2026 net revenue $12.6B for April 2026. Revenue up 30%, Semis keep going brr.
7. Anthropic needs compute -> SpaceX.
So implications for compute demand is extreme here which is BRRR $NBIS and others.
But it's very interesting they sidestepped Neoclouds and went with SpaceX.
8. "SKC to Accelerate Mass Production of Glass Substrates for U.S. Clients by the End of the Year"
"the end of the year, ahead of its original plan, it has been announced"
Glass Core substrates players like $LPK for mass production and other related players like SKC go brrr.
Glass timelines moved up. heavy brrr glass.
9. "Power chip shortages deepen as AI server demand and GaN battles escalate"
Maybe time to look into the power chip bottleneck anon?
10. "Adata said DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will each climb more than 40% in the second quarter of 2026"
Another positive for $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, $SNDK, and others.
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@aleabitoreddit @pennycheck keep up the good work! changing lives over here. 🐐
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@pennycheck lol I got so much negativity from this thesis, especially from the media and random journals.
Glad to see it age well
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lance b. retweetet
Did you listen anon?
It’s still crazy we’re still only at the very beginning of a multi year CPO supercycle with $SIVE.
This is what it feels like to be the very first to the names I’ve called out like $AXTI, up 6000%+ over the past year.
Still think Sivers is the next $LITE.
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@TheGreekEuler I personally think $SIVE should be $3B today and ends up $10B+ next year.
Earnings don’t really matter. Just care about indication from management about laser volume ramp for both CPO programs / $JBL and likely $AAPL silicon photonics program.
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GS has mapped out the CPO supercycle with unholy projections of 9x TAM projections.
From $15B to $154B in a short timeframe. CPO contributing $91B.
This is why I’m so bullish on $SIVE as one of bleeding edge CPO laser suppliers.
Reminds me of the horse Golden Tempo.
But for lasers.
Still a small $1.5B MC, while all the others are tens of billions.
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@aleabitoreddit Serenity, I just want to thank you. As of today, at age 42, I am officially a millionaire. I wasn’t expecting this until at least age 45, but the following you a little over a month ago supercharged the tax-sheltered portion of my portfolio. God bless you!
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@funniestlines Thanks! Pretty confident I’m #1 in the entire world for performance this year
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I think $SIVE realistically should be valued around ~$3B today after information discovery/news around $YSS + Golden Dome and Lightmatter.
NASDAQ listing doesn’t change it fundamentally, but gives it more liquidity to bridge that valuation gap.
Next year $10B very possible on volume ramp.
And I see a realistic path to competing with $60B+ $LITE over next few years if they want to speedrun it with downstream IP acquisitions.
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Fun fact: don’t think any large US institution had positions in $SIVE / $SIVEF since it was a majority owned local Swedish retail stock.
There’s also fund mandates preventing US funds from entering (eg. Nasdaq listing / $1B MC)
That’s definitely changed now thanks to European media shaking out the local holders, Sivers upcoming NASDAQ listing, and hitting $1B+ MC.
Again $1.3B is literal spare change for hyperscalers and US institutions.
And I have high confidence many would want exposure to CPO, silicon photonics and lasers, since there’s only a few in the entire world like $LITE, $COHR, and $MTSI.
Especially… a CHIPS Act laser supplier likely in $AMD, $MRVL, $AAPL, Lightmatter, Ayar, AlChip, GUC, O-Net and other supply chains like the Golden Dome.
Part of it is game theory for share accumulation.
Since US/Western retail now owns a large part of the float (off of the Swedish sellers).
And US institutions now want exposure.
OrangeGroveCapital@OGCapital25
Also feels like there’s an infinite TWAP on $SIVE Price goes up, long time holders sell, price goes up even more. Feel like large institutional bids averaging their buys.
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If you’re curious why $SIVEF is up even more today.
$SIVE, as a CHIPS act recipient:
Now likely powers the Golden Dome.
As the upstream semi supplier since Sivers’ lead customer ALLSPACE got acquired by $YSS.
York happens to be a national defense prime contractor with links to the Space Force, Space Development Agency, DoD, and Golden Dome.
So Sivers, a mini Swedish company, basically got a backdoor to powering the US space buildout.
Mac 🐺@MacnBTC
$SIVE +200% something in only 2.5 weeks all credit to @aleabitoreddit, made me more than I made in crypto past 5 months
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I’ll never forget what they did to my favorite unreleased Ye album
GoodAssSub@GoodAssSub
Happy Birthday to Donda 2 (2025) It’s been exactly 1 year since it’s dropped
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$MRVL cancelled $POET purchase orders after the CFO went out and violated NDA when getting angry.
Ouch to Poet, down -46%, this is why I don’t like companies with single customer concentration risk.
On the bright side for $POET holders they do have $420m cash buffering downside risk and a few other customers (though Marvell was basically the entire Poet bull case story)
It does look like Marvell delayed their own timelines as well by doing this.
That being said, the packaging side is easier to design out for Marvell and they still need to source lasers.
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Appreciate the X revenue sharing program!
I actually end up passing it along to local charities I like, but don't normally share.
I'm especially a big fan of local pet shelters, since my dog passed away last year and I'm still not completely over it.
And addressing homelessness too, since I did make a lot of homeless friends back at UC Berkeley.
At a certain point, you don't need more money.
But it does help maximize the positive impact you can have, which is why I'm still on X (and not retiring, which I can do).
It just feels fulfilling to live an honest life, be true to yourself, and see how much of a positive change you can make in this world before you go?
My goal on X has always been how to help the retail investor the most...
compared to traditional models of selling every single piece of alpha to institutions first.
Actions speak louder than words, hence why subscriptions are $1 and I publish all my ideas/thought process for free to everyone here (even though I could charge $50).
So people can do what I do themselves when I leave one day!
In terms of next steps, I thought it would be fun if retail had the exact same edge as Citadel and the other hedge funds?
So I was planning on releasing custom LLMs for free (I was a research scientist in the past you know) and using the extra subscription revenue to subsidize compute/data costs.
Think it will be fun!
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I'm genuinely laughing. This is gotta be the funniest headline I've seen to date since $RPI.
You have non-technical journalists in Sweden, with no understanding of semiconductors/photonics.
Doing an analysis on $SIVE and telling all the locals (who hold majority) to sell, because it's a "meme".
Don't understand hyperscaler qualification cycles from upcoming $JBL 1.6T or $MRVL CPO ramp?
Or the fact they just got validated as the laser supplier in $GFS ecosystem with $AMD driving new CPO demand?
> Must be a meme. It's only possible to value a company based on TTM 2025 balance sheets and old revenue projections right?
At least this volatility helps transfer control over to US investors/institutions before CPO/1.6T inflection point next year.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Just 1 month ago, journalists and media tried downplaying my $SOI and $RPI thesis. As “meme stocks that were set to crash” citing my WSB tag without analyzing the underlying thesis. They’re both up 100% and held their gains. Same is happening to companies like $SIVE. I never argue from authority… but since they’re going that route: I’m curious why… in their narratives they just leave out the fact I published fundamental AI papers in places like Nature with thousands of citations? Other the fact other analysts on X positive about $SIVE today have Ph.Ds from places like UC Berkeley and publish in the photonics space? It’s always the English or non-technical graduates that go out in the media and have the strongest opinion about CPO hyperscaler qualification cycles and supply chain mapping. It just feels like institutions hate it when a retail investors on X know what they’re talking about. A thesis should live and die based on merit, not the authority of who is comes from.
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Of course? When do you ever see the $MRVL and $JBL laser supplier at $700m MC?
All the other laser companies like $MTSI and $LITE are in the tens of billions right now and $SIVE is ~$720m.
As for $ALRIB it’s extremely rare to have $MSFT Quantum supplier as well as $IQE / Fujitsu quantum dot arm supplier at $350m mc.
Important to know what you hold so you don’t need to ask these kinds of questions
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Just some TLDRs to save you time:
1. $ASML, $TSM earnings = Good Outlook. Semis + capex go brrr.
2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic go brrr. Software = sad.
3. Samsung go brrr because of partly bc of $TSLA AI Chips.
4. $UMC = price hike for foundry. foundries go brrr.
5. Training = brrr in China. H100 rental increase go up. Neoclouds happy.
6. Helium supply shortage = not significant... I've already said this before, but I'm not sure how many times $TSM needs to say this.
7. MLCC, inductor prices = price hike. Will cover beneficiaries later.
8. "Taiwan's OSAT expansion could tighten global test capacity and raise costs"
I went long on Taiwan OSATs recently like Shunsin (6451) for a reason. Demand will just outstrip supply, even after expansion. (cowos, sip, optical).
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Genuinely thanks for nice comments.
I share my ideas for free in the end though since I want to help out the retail community.
$TSEM hit triple digit return... so that's 16 different names YTD.
So my YTD hit 1525%+ as a result.
Just to recap all the endless abuse and harassment along the way:
1. $AXTI - "Pump and Dump", "Scam Chinese Stock", Got banned from WSB $RDDT after Mods got mad investors actually made money AXT going from $12->$80.
2. $AAOI - "Pumping stock with no fundamentals, Meme stock"
3. $SIVEF - "Pump and Dump" "Meme Stock"
4. $LITE - "Photonics Bubble"
5. $IQE - "Just pumping low MC stocks"
6. $AEHR - "Stock with negative revenue growth, why is anyone following this guy and not paying $2,000+ for my subscription?"
7. $CRCL - "TA says it's going down to $30"
8. $EWY - "Just from followers" (hint, it's the South Korean Index)
9. Unimicron - "Idea is useless give me US stocks"
10. Nitto Boseki - "Idea is useless give me US stocks"
11. $OSS - Stealing Ideas (no, my synthesis around Venezuela was novel)
12. $GDRZF - "You're a terrible human trying to profit off of the War in Venezuela"
13. $RPI - "Meme stock all because of a Meme Trader" (FT, European Media).
14. $SOI - "Pump and dump", "no novel idea" (random analysts)
15. $ALRIB - "Pumping low MC stocks" (no, it's $MSFT quantum information discovery)
16. $TSEM - "Pumping based on followers alone" (bro it's $25B+, these are institutions)
Or how about... the idea around fundamentals was right all along? And I'm just sharing information synthesis/discovery before institutions find out about them.
Retail and media should be celebrating when 16+ different ideas return 100%+ YTD, since stocks are positive sum.
Everyone from retail, the companies, and local economies benefits.
Instead, negativity is through the roof and people keep trying to diminish/downplay the ideas like frontrunning the photonics supercycle… even when they actually turn out right?
The trolls are starting to get to me, from $IREN folks creating new accounts every day just to send IRL threats, to European media disinformation about "pumping and dumping"... since I do read every comment.
But notice... how 95% of things keep going up? And institutions like Point72 and Apollo end up buying the names I mention?
Comments like this do make it helpful to stay on X, and I do enjoy taking victory laps on the haters.
Taylor@Taylor_GPT
@aleabitoreddit Are you quite literally changing my life
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