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158 posts

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@Lg3ux

Katılım Nisan 2025
10 Takip Edilen18 Takipçiler
Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
@0xResurge Yeah it’s unfortunate timing. Could have easily seen $FLNC doubling if the company left things alone. But the float unlock creates a ton of psychological overhang, even if nothing is sold.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
$FLNC 20M share offering if you’re wondering why it’s trading down. The 20M share is not dilution, but share unlock + transfer. So change of hands. The biggest problem was the clause that made active shelf-registered resale capacity of the 117,666,665 shares, so there’s an unlock of the other remaining ~97m shares to my knowledge. Net negative and very material to short term trade ideas. Since it expands the float and it introduces short term selling pressure. That’s the overhang… I personally cut concentration on the surprising news since it’s changes my trade idea with the float structure. But holding some anyway to see where it heads after hyperscaler deals. Definitely not telling people what to do, presenting new material overhang created by company management.
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RyanYinkwan
RyanYinkwan@RyanYinkwan·
@Lg3ux @aleabitoreddit $FLNC controlling stockholders are selling 20M Class A shares in a secondary offering, with a 30-day option for another 3M shares. Fluence is not selling stock and will not receive any proceeds. Barclays, Goldman and JPMorgan are running the deal.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
All right chat. I need some more ideas on the early $RKLB equivalent for humanoid exposure. 10x+ potential returns only in the next 2 years and more pure play exposure than $TSLA. What’s your best ideas?
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Crazy
Crazy@Craaazy1231·
$FLNC will hit $35 within 3 months, that’s nearly 50% upside. This company is extremely undervalued…
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
The 2.5% dilution to get listed on NASDAQ is actually extremely bullish with $SIVE, and I see it heading to $3B+ once its trading on US markets. I think it's undervalued at current prices, but just limited by local Swedish markets right now. I'm personally not sure how $LWLG and $POET are worth $2.3B - $2.6B while Sivers is ~$1.5B supplying to a vast amount of hyperscaler suppliers.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Just 3 months ago, European media called my $RPI thesis: "A Meme Stock" where earnings isn't factored into decisions. 2 months ago, $SOI was labeled "overvalued, with nothing new with the thesis". This month it's $SIVE is "nothing special with Sivers or CPO, it's been around for years". Each are still hitting YTD highs with triple digit returns. Especially, Raspberry PI after it shattered projections by 52% to 55% fwd. rev growth from ~15% est. And I expect all 3 ($RPI, $SIVE, and $SOI) to keep delivering record growth as AI, SiPH, and CPO drive structural re-rating. Maybe after each negative hit piece... it's time for European media to look in a mirror? The ones focusing on actual fundamentals are the ones they're mocking.
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L@Lg3ux·
@aleabitoreddit What is your forecast for $FLNC today?
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Random CPO related names I like: - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI Disclosure: I own most, not all though.
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A Shakeel
A Shakeel@ArslanShak85992·
@aleabitoreddit This is why $FLNC caught my attention. If these big tech deals keep repeating, the market may have to take it more seriously. The big question: can they grow fast and still keep margins strong?
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
I actually think $FLNC should be a lot higher. The implications of having 2 incoming direct hyperscaler contracts in 1 quarter is enormous. $MSFT to $AMZN don't sign tiny deals. Obviously markets like to wait more until actual news/purchase order numbers come out... in the off-chance it doesn't go through or lower than expected. But a company doesn't just randomly announce 2 hyperscalers MSas and an expectation of the orders to hit Q3. Also winning multiple hyperscaler deals, in a single quarter is a leading indicator for more, especially as Fluence BESS becomes standardized. Given short interest is around 27.69%, I'm not sure if pre-earnings short sellers are very comfortable to take a risk... I think there's a chance for a generational run if a hyperscaler like $GOOGL signs a massive contract.
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rockwell0790@rockwell0790

@aleabitoreddit @Jess252530 Buying the flnc dip as well

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L@Lg3ux·
@aleabitoreddit What is your forecast for $FLNC today?
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Seems like everyone on X is looking to hoard AP x Swatch watches on release. I’m curious if that will show up in $SWGAY / $UHR (Swatch) stock prices from increased sales?
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Gublo 🇨🇦
Gublo 🇨🇦@Gubloinvestor·
$SIVE $SIVEF on fire guys.. It went -10% at point n now its up 10%. Rapid recovery of 24% from bottom.. Put it to 100 SEK
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L@Lg3ux·
@aleabitoreddit What’s your take on $FLNC right now after today’s news/move?
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L@Lg3ux·
@aleabitoreddit What’s your take on $FLNC right now after today’s news/move?
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
$LITE is now over $1000. Did you listen anon? I do tend to get optical players directionally right... So it's hilarious when I see short sellers on names like $AAOI or $SIVE.
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Serenity@aleabitoreddit

The $LITE thesis: The hidden monopoly in the AI. Lumentum is up 316% YTD, but might be 1000%+ by 2027. Micron ($300B) or TSM ($1.5T) sit in the center of every TPU/GPU deployed. But same with $LITE, but it's a $26B MC. In Every, Single, TPU from Google, $LITE makes unbelievable amounts of profit for their marketcap. That's because it's the standard for Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) + optical networking. It's also in - $NVDA Blackwell -$AMZN Trainium - and other hyperscaler ASICs. Lumentum sits in the holy trinity of every single chip deployment for photonics. And for every TPU capex spent, $LITE takes 8-12%. For every Nvidia GPU, $LITE takes ~2-3% (split between Innolight and some others, so the math gets a bit complex). But some napkin math on NVDA GPU deployments alone for BOM: NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200): HBM memory: ~50–55% (SK Hynix (Lead), Micron, Samsung) Logic (GPU Die): ~25-30% ( $TSM 4NP) CoWoS Packaging: ~13-18% $TSM Optics/Network: ~3–5% (Innolight, Lumentum, Coherent) PCB/Power: 5% For Google TPIU "Ironwood" TPU v7: HBM Memory: 38-42% Samsung / SK Hynix Logic Die: TSM ~28-33% Design/I.O: 8-10% MediaTek Optical Network: 10-14% ( $LITE (primary), $COHR secondary) Optical Switch: 2-4% $LITE $LITE est. total cluster share: ~8–12% Just an FYI, Google's "Optical" BOM share (8–12%) is an anomaly due to their unique Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) monopoly. Just for some napkin math: $40B Google TPU spend by 2027. $LITE captures 10% (30-40% margins), $1.5B+ FCF from Google alone, 17x earnings from just their primary customer. (analysts are probably extremely off with projecting TPU spend scaling). Not even including their split from $AMZN Trainium, $NVDA Blackwell, $MSFT Maia, and other chip deployments. $LITE is in the center of every single TPU/GPU future chip deployment for now and takes a cut. The only downside is they're the clear market leader now, but $AVGO and $COHR are likely set up to compete by 2027-2028. However... People say "$26B, ATH, why are you buying now". This is the reason. They're involved in every future single TPU/GPU/ASIC deployed. $LITE could end up easily over $60B+ if Google TPUs, and other chip spend ramps up and LITE takes a 2-3% (from $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT) or 8-12% cut (from $GOOGL) for every single dollar spent.

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IncomeSharks
IncomeSharks@IncomeSharks·
$FLNC - Took profits on the explosive move, moon bag holding the rest. Now in a position where I get to reload for cheaper if we get a correction, or profit if we go to all time highs. Every entry and exit has been shared on Slice for full transparency.
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Pep Invest
Pep Invest@PepInvestStocks·
$FLNC - The setup becomes even more interesting when looking at market positioning. Short interest remains exceptionally high, creating the potential for a major short squeeze if Fluence begins announcing large scale AI data center contract conversions in upcoming quarters. As execution concerns fade and revenue visibility improves, short sellers may be forced to cover aggressively. Ultimately, battery energy storage is no longer optional for the future of AI infrastructure. Without large scale BESS deployments, hyperscalers cannot efficiently expand data center capacity or manage power demand economically. Fluence is increasingly positioned at the center of this transformation, making it one of the most compelling infrastructure plays behind the AI boom.
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L@Lg3ux·
@Lumiitushay What is your forecast for $FLNC today?
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