ميسون نويهض
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@mnabou
▪️Mayssoun Noueihed. ▪️Senior News Anchor at @AlArabiya ▪️my instagram account mayssounnag
JUST IN: The Islamabad talks are scheduled to begin Saturday morning. As of right now, it is unclear whether Iran will show up. Iranian state media outlets Fars News and Tasnim both reported on April 10 that “no delegation has left Tehran” for Islamabad. Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan briefly posted on X that the Iranian team would arrive on April 9. That post was deleted. Western sources (WSJ, Haaretz, citing officials) reported the opposite: that Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf traveled to Islamabad late Thursday. The conflicting signals are not ambiguity. They are leverage. Iran has set an explicit precondition: no negotiations unless the ceasefire covers Lebanon and Israeli strikes there stop. This is the one demand the United States and Israel have categorically rejected. Netanyahu’s office said the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon.” Vance called Lebanon’s inclusion a “legitimate misunderstanding.” IDF Chief of Staff Zamir stood in Bint Jbeil on April 9 and declared Lebanon Israel’s “main battlefield,” adding: “The IDF is in a state of war. We are not in a ceasefire.” So the two-week clock is burning. The ceasefire expires approximately April 22. The first round was supposed to start tomorrow. And Iran’s opening position is that the talks cannot begin until the condition is met that every other party has already refused to meet. Meanwhile, the host country is in damage control. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Asif posted on April 9 that Israel is “evil,” a “curse for humanity,” and a “cancerous state” whose creators should “burn in hell.” The Israeli PMO called the statement “outrageous antisemitic blood libels” from a self-proclaimed neutral arbiter. Pakistan’s own PM Office distanced itself, calling the remarks unacceptable from a government claiming neutrality. Asif deleted the tweet. But screenshots circulate on every continent and Israel has already entered it into the diplomatic record. The Serena Hotel has been emptied. Over 10,000 security personnel deployed. Red Zone sealed. Two-day public holiday declared. A 30-member US advance team is on the ground. A US military transport landed at Nur Khan Air Base on April 10. The infrastructure for the most significant US-Iran meeting since 1979 is complete. And the Iranian delegation may not be coming. Or it may already be there and denying it. The deletion of the ambassador’s arrival post is the kind of information operation that serves both narratives. If the delegation arrives quietly while state media denies it, Tehran preserves the option to walk out at any moment citing Lebanon as the unmet condition. If the delegation genuinely has not departed, the two-week window loses its first 72 hours to posturing before a single word is exchanged at the table. Zamir’s “main battlefield” declaration makes the precondition impossible to meet without Israeli concession. Netanyahu’s simultaneous offer of direct Lebanon talks makes any Iranian-brokered Lebanon clause redundant. Araghchi’s 3.69-million-view post (“the US must choose: ceasefire or continued war via Israel”) makes the demand public and irreversible. Every actor has locked in a position that requires the other side to move first. The ceasefire is 72 hours old. The talks have not started. The mediator’s defense minister called one side a curse upon humanity and deleted it. The other side’s military chief declared the excluded front the primary combat zone. And the clock that was supposed to produce a deal is producing only the architecture of its own failure. Fourteen days is not a long time. Three of them are already gone. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
مصادر إسرائيلية: . الموساد تعقب موقعا لأحد قادة حزب الله أثناء اجتماع وحدد موقع 100 مقاتل . الموساد حدد موقع 100 مقاتل بعد تعقب اجتماع لأحد قادة حزب الله في بيروت
