Michael A. Horowitz

After several years of writing, it's amazing to finally get my hands on actual copies. As I mention in the book, writing about the future of this region can often feel like a pointless task. But I think we've also been stuck arguing about our past rather than looking at what the future might look like if nothing changes. You can order pre-order yours here geni.us/gLHAW

Cluster munition over northern Israel

UAE says it dismantled a terror network tied to Iran and Hezbollah

Claims Mojtaba Khamenei is dead - unverified

It is baffling that after weeks X still has done nothing, when the account has obviously been hacked, and spams crypto scams

Iranian security forces deployed under a bridge in Rasht

#Iran: Saleh Mohammadi, the 19-year-old wrestler whose case has attracted international attention, and two others, Mehdi Ghasemi and Saeed Davoudi, have been hanged in public by the Islamic Republic for "moharebeh" (warring against God"). euronews.com/2026/03/19/ira…

France's foreign minister will visit Israel on Friday

Strike against a police station in Tehran

RT @IranIntl_En: Security forces tried to break up a memorial for slain protester Sepehr Shokri, whose killing became a symbol of the recen…

Aftermath of #IAF 🇮🇱 airstrike on IRGC Basij's Bahonar HQ and the sport complex they were using as ammunition depot and hideout. (It was targeted on March 3, 2026) (Coords: 35.7354, 51.3461) Tehran, #Tehran Province, #Iran

I see the opposite take a lot on here: that it will take years to repair. So which is it?

The official news agency of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s judiciary has announced that three protesters from the uprisings in early January have been executed by hanging in public in Qom, Iran. Mehdi Ghasemi Saleh Mohammadi Saeed Davoodi The three men were accused by the regime of killing police officers and carrying out “operational actions for the Zionist regime [Israel] and the hostile US government.” The three young men, like all defendants, were deprived of due process. Among the injustices they faced: 1. Reliance on coerced confessions 2. Restricted access to lawyers, especially during the investigation phase 3. Closed or rushed proceedings 4. Ignored exculpatory evidence 5. Being held without a lawyer during initial interrogation 6. Subjected to physical and psychological torture, including beatings causing hand fractures 7. The court ignored claims that confessions were obtained under torture 8. No investigation into torture allegations 9. Alibi evidence dismissed 10. Defense witnesses dismissed or not summoned 11. Extremely brief hearing 12. Denial of real access to independent lawyers 13. Lack of transparent evidence (I have only included two of their photos, as I try, as much as possible, not to publish images of imprisoned Iranians in prison uniforms.)

Official confirmation that a drone crash in a refinery in Yanbu - Iran is attacking energy facilities along the Red Sea coast

Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, currently the country’s only crude export outlet, was targeted in an aerial attack on Thursday but the impact was minimal, Reuters cited an industry source as saying on Thursday. It was not immediately clear what exactly was targeted at Yanbu.

Iran's best card is to apply pressure on global markets by attacking energy facilities - this was always true, including before the South Pars attack. If its export own facilities are attacked, Tehran may escalate to deter further attacks on its energy infrastructure, but it won't stop its attacks against energy infrastructure in the region, regardless of what the kind of targets the US and Israel strike. We're in a very different configuration than last year, for instance, when Israel struck empty oil tanks in Abadan as a warning to a regime that was still thinking long-term. For Iran this is a war of survival, one aimed not only at forcing an end to the conflict, but also imposing enough of a cost that the US and Israel don't come back in a few months to try again. These attacks have been carried out before, and won't stop unless either (1) Iran's ability to carry them is neutralized, (2) the regime falls, or (3) a negotiated settlement is reached. All of those options are problematic: Going after Iran's capabilities would take time and potentially require boots on the ground/raids, the regime falling isn't exactly a measurable objective, and aiming for a ceasefire would likely leave Iran in control of the de-escalation phase (Iran would likely continue its attacks for a time) and allow Tehran to use this newly proven "card" in a number of ways to pressure its neighbors.

Trump can post whatever he likes. But there is zero, I mean zero, chance the IDF would conduct a strike in that location without giving CENTCOM full visibility. Trump knew (and approved). Now he realizes it caused a major escalation with Iran's (entirely unjustified) attacks on Gulf energy targets.

Exclusive details on the tentative agreement between Washington and armed factions in Iraq: The reported "fragile truce" hinges on a reciprocal de-escalation: factions will cease targeting the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, in exchange for Washington halting strikes against faction leaders, the Iranian Embassy, and Iranian advisors. However, all other sites remain fair game. This preliminary agreement is highly volatile and could collapse at any moment. In practice, this means factions will continue targeting "Victory Base," while Washington maintains the latitude to strike any location not specifically covered by the deal.

WSJ: Trump, who knew about the Israeli strike on South Pars in advance, supported it as a message to Tehran over its block of the Strait of Hormuz. The president believes Iran got the message and is now against attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, the officials said. But Trump could once again be open to targeting more Iranian energy facilities depending on Tehran's future actions in the strategic waterway, the officials said.

Looks like Kataib Hezbollah is suspending attacks against the US Embassy in Iraq, for five days