oc ulus

@MinotaurStocks @AggieCapitalist Apple’s already made it much harder to crack. Clbt won’t disclose which versions they’re caught up with, due to nature of zero-day exploits. Point is, if clbt falls behind, police has no options except wait. Also criminals tend to not carry newest up to date iPhones.

@oc_ulus @AggieCapitalist Yep, AI helps on both sides I just wonder if a company of Apple's scale can leverage it in such a way as to make cracking degree of difficulty much harder. I thought $CLBT fell behind on IOS extraction and they seemed to allude to that on the CC, don't know full story

"We have repeatedly said $CLBT is the best AI use case we have seen in all of software. We would double down on that and suggest that AI will be a material incremental positive to the top and bottom line for CLBT going forward. Simply put, the use case is ideal for AI

@MinotaurStocks @AggieCapitalist By that logic, AI can disrupt as well as help in cracking defense capabilities no? Fall behind on iOS compared to which other vendors? If they can’t crack, no one can. Police will simply hold the devices until they can catch up.

@oc_ulus @AggieCapitalist Any chance AI ups defense capabilities on the "cracking" side of the ledger and makes it harder for $CLBT in extraction? On the platform / management side, agree that they seem really well positioned. Also why did they fall behind on IOS?

@MinotaurStocks @AggieCapitalist They’re in the data extraction and digital forensics market. First, there’s an explosion of data due to AI, win on data extraction and storage. Second, there will never be a human investigator that can analyze and connect dots better than an AI agent.

@AggieCapitalist I'm generally in the bull camp and debating buying. Where is this quote from and can you explain why AI will be so materially positive to top and bottom line $CLBT?

@DiSaaStrr @OrlandoBravoTB They already own Magnet. Makes no sense to buy Cellebrite. Vista is the better bet due to management ties.

$CLBT is a perfect vertical SaaS target for @OrlandoBravoTB. Would $25 per share get a deal done?

@StoryTrading “Senior Vice President, Strategy & Corporate Development at Axon. In this role, Kühl drives strategic growth and innovation, oversees mergers and acquisitions, facilitates minority investments, forms strategic partnerships, and optimizes capital allocation and structure” I like

$EVLV Breaking! $AXON executive joins $EVLV board... 👀

@Tarbay14 I think so too. But I just can’t come around to $XTRAF, it’s still much too illiquid.

@oc_ulus Both companies will do well in 2026. Bought 1/2 original position in xtraf that I had as well. If they dip I'll bring up to 100% but I had big gains on both

$xtraf Today is the last day of tax loss selling for Xtract One stock. Last day of depressed pricing availability. Backlog conversion into revenue is in progress and picking up steam.

@Tarbay14 Nicely done! I thought the reasoning for your exit was weak in the first place. Glad you came around. Good to have your seal of approval.

@oc_ulus Bought 1/2 back @ $5.75

@HedgeyeTech Can I access the short report without going through the paywall?

An non-AI company’s CEO saying it can grow 10x with AI. Ridiculous claim - AI actually can hurt $SE. These are the companies to SHORT/SELL. We remain negative on $SE

@KairosPraxis The only reason CLBT hasn't been sold is because SUN keeps blocking it, hanging on to those shares for dear life. Getting rid of SUN means an acquisition is almost 100% coming.

@KairosPraxis Activists control SUN currently. More shares SUN buys back, more shares/voting power the activists have. Buyback being rushed implies they want it done quickly (The shares they bought were not cheap), maybe to have enough control to enact a distribution of CLBT shares?

It was SUN buying this whole month. They rushed to use up the entire year’s buyback plan (JPY 7B). I think the activists get rid of SUN from $CLBT by year end. Sets Cellebrite up to be acquired in 2026.

@valuedrift Terrible comparison. $SE is not richly valued at all. It’s an add here, while $AXON still needs to be humbled further.

Interesting, $SE pulling an $AXON... High valuation is risky!

@orel2589 Same thoughts x.com/oc_ulus/status… Doesn't make sense for a big buyer to step in at these levels, as there is no longer a discount gap. But past few days have been relentless buying. Unless these buyers know for sure something will happen at SUN soon...

Something weird is happening behind the scenes of Cellebrite. $CLBT Sun Corporation, which owns roughly 47% of Cellebrite, jumped over 8% today on unusually high volume. That’s not just a random move. For years, Sun has traded at a massive discount to its net asset value — yet even now, with the discount almost closed, buyers continue to pile in. It feels like something is happening behind the scenes. (Value act is pushing Sun to sell Cellebrite?) It’s still speculation, but to be honest, a deal seems most likely in the first half of 2026. Once the market fully captures Cellebrite’s acceleration story with stronger growth and better margins we think a transaction could follow but sure feels like some one know something. The potential buyer? Maybe Axon, Motorola, Vista, or even IBM. F.D it’s our top pick and we have a position

$CLBT $6736.T still running wild on crazy volume. Surely co is not crazy enough to continue buyback at these levels? Is ValueAct still buying? Something about to happen real soon? Not sure it’s still worth buying here as gap has closed. So who’s buying with such volume?

@Tarbay14 They hold a really big position. At one point also participated in a PIPE if i remember correctly. I don’t see anything wrong with trimming a massive winning position.

$evlv Dumped about 3 million shares lately fintel.io/i13d/stoic-poi…

@KevinLMak Any chance of a portfolio update? Would love to see the rest of your current weighings.

$ASTS Latest update from the company is welcome news that production/launch cadence is on the near-ish term horizon. From a momentum perspective, this is great for the stock as the last 5 months or so has been tepid when it comes to production/launch progress. My best guess is the production misses have been a combination of partner (ie ISRO) constraints, internal design changes, production forecasting issues, overly ambitious timelines, etc. To be clear, none of this is particularly unexpected, as I've stated many many many times before, this is hard/delicate work and things take longer than expected and cost more than expected. An ideal scenario is that the company's cadence of on-the-ground developments falls into a regular rhythm while simultaneously getting more traction with respect to commercial and government deals. If they can pull that off, the stock should be straight up from there. That's the rosy scenario, and I think there's a decent chance that happens. That's why I have a 2% equity weight in the company. This is low relative to my historical weighting, why? I think ASTS is relatively in the "momentum stock" stage at this point relative to being a contrarian/value stock. I don't use value in an absolute term of "It's cheap relative to its free cash flows" because obviously it's not. But I'll rewind the calendar back to May 12th, 2025. On that day, the stock was $27, and they had just announced: The most recent release from ASTS this week, more or less reiterates all of these goals, except 5 months later. The idea here is my "level of excitement" for the company today, is similar to where it was back on May 12th. Except, the price at $57 is more than 2x the price it was on May 12th. On a relative basis, you're getting "the same thing" for "twice the price". ASTS Bulls (do they even exist? I rarely see any), would argue that "there are just soo many bullish AF developments that have happened concurrently over the last 5 months". While true the company has made headway on a lot of avenues, I find those are a) things that have to happen to make the business work, and b) still tangential to the core business. At the end of the day, the business is about building and launching birds. The state of that part of the business isn't substantially further along. In addition to that, the short interest is elevated at ~48m shares, but this is quite small relative to 60-70M short interest back in May. I also worry that the "unprofitable/no revenue tech" basket of stocks is over extended here. ASTS is part of that basket- and has benefited from that tailwind over the past 8 weeks. If that turns, it can easily take ASTS down with it. Not saying it WILL turn, but- it's not unreasonable to say it's more likely to fall than rally from these nosebleed levels. At the end of the day, I'm mostly a contrarian that looks for severe dislocations to jump on. I don't see that in ASTS at $57, but that could easily change. For now, I see a great company, with great prospects, a good chance at being successful, with a pretty solid risk/reward profile on the stock.

@valuedrift @KairosPraxis Axon has one of the most rock solid shareholder bases I've ever seen. But I'm only comfortable watching from a distance hahah.

@oc_ulus @KairosPraxis At least it's cheaper than $AXON...

Expensive stock selling off. $EVLV

@KairosPraxis @valuedrift Yes, dystopian is in, $CLBT and $EVLV 🔼 It's overvalued, but anything worth owning in this bull market is overvalued. 🤷‍♂️

@oc_ulus @valuedrift Thanks frens 🙏 super dystopian but we might as well make money off of it. Last q: how do you think about valuing the stock? Always have a hard time with businesses without positive earnings yet

@valuedrift @KairosPraxis I've been looking into it for a few weeks. Probably has potential to run more than Evolv at this point. But it's too small/illiquid, riskier investment; I've learned my lesson on small illiquid names, don't get a lot of institutional support. I stick with category leaders.

@oc_ulus @KairosPraxis You own Xtract too?