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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·23 Oca

We tracked over 50 000 bets and compared the odds with our simplest model to see how it would perform. This is what we do in the Value Scanner and here's the results! The Value Scanner is a product we offer to all of our platinum members (and it's free to try for 5 days)! The goal of the Value Scanner is to find logical places to start your research. It's a great feature for potential bets, helping us achieve a 20%+ return over our last 500 bets shared on X. 1⃣ What can be concluded is that looking at the Last 15 games seems to be performing better than longer time horizons like Last 25 games (for our model). 2⃣ But having the bet being liked by the model for both short- and long term trend (L15, L25 games) will always be the best out of both worlds. 3⃣ Betting the highest odds will always be important, we see a significant higher return on Bet365 on team-props because they have a higher payout and often better odds than Kambi, this will make a big difference over time. 4⃣ In general a random bet on props should be a -8.5% EV bet with Bet365 and even worse with Kambi (-10 to 15% EV) because of their payout %. Even though the Value Scanner loses money over a lot of settings we are still below these numbers meaning the Value Scanner is constantly finding decent opportunities and filtering our the worst bets, doing what it's supposed to do: Narrow down the amount of bets one should focus on. Some settings like L15 40%+ together with L25 40% provides good value over time. 5⃣ Betting on the "Unders" seems to be the place to start if you are new to this. When betting on the Under you always get "fair" odds as the Over is being offered, not always the same case for the other way around. ❓If you have any questions regarding the data, our DMs and the comment section is open! We'll get a version of the spreadsheet included in the app ahead of the next update. (We also attached the entire database of bets in the spreadsheet if someone wants to play around with different filters.) Link to spreadsheet in comments⬇️

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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·10h

1.40 ✅2.85 ✅ Great to see the Value Scanner in action tonight 🔥 As mentioned only 8 fouls from Leipzig but still enough for Baumgartner to grab a couple!

PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio

🤕 Baumgartner Over 0.5 Fouls @ 1.40 ✅ Correct odds: 1.23* 📊 Hit rate: 23/25 (92%) - odds implies 71% hit rate! 🤕 Baumgartner Over 1.5 Fouls @ 2.85 ✅ Correct odds: 2.01 📊 Hit rate: 16/25 (64%) - odds implies 35% hit rate! Not the best match up as we can see here, Hoffenheim draws the least amount of fouls in the Bundesliga (9.1 Fouls Won / Game) which is 15% less than the league average. Slightly better stats for central midfielders as they commit 9% less fouls versus Hoffenheim compared to the average. Great hit rates compared to the odds but a bad match up, but not bad enough to justify the odds according to our models. 1 Foul in last H2H game versus Hoffenheim. 🧵(2/7)

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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·11h

Think a lot of people have different approaches to home/away defenses: Bournemouth been terrible away defensively and tight at home. If you think that's not "luck" and that it won't even out over time we'd have the fair price around 1.68 but in general teams are not "magic" at home and terrible away. So a more balanced approach makes more sense in our eyes in general.

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Jamie@jamie2965·11h

@propsdataio Yeah exactly, I was pretty surprised to see a few accounts saying 1.7 was fair price, I think that was quite generous

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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·11h

⚽️ Cunha SOT @ 2.0 is a great superboost, but it's not the point of this tweet. Like suggested here hedging out or similar strategies are common on exchanges when bigger bookmakers have boosted odds. You will never have as good odds as the boost but a lot of the times you can actually find EV+ props with good liquidity on smaller prop markets on exchanges thanks to boosted odds. We have Matheus Cunha SOT fair odds between 1.46-1.68 today depending on how good you value the home defense of Bournemouth. Today we've had good liquidity on exchanges for Cunha SOT 1.75+ which we would never have seen without the super boost. A couple of weeks ago when Rogers SOT was boosted to 2.50 away versus Wolves you were able to tail Rogers SOT 2.0+ without problem on Exchanges. So this might tell you two things, super boosts open up opportunities for betting props on exchanges and exchanges might not be the best reference point for the correct odds when bookies have boosted the odds for a certain player as people/bots are for some reasson putting out a lot of liquidity for -EV positions.

Jamie@jamie2965

Yeah this is a good boost, nice stats! Shouldn’t be quite as short as 1.4 but its nice value nonetheless If you are someone that feels the boosts are cursed & denise has paid cunha not to have a SOT then cunha u0.5 SOT is also small value for me I would NOT take both the boost AND the under That’s a recipe for getting your account restricted Just pick one avenue unless you have multiple accounts and fancy some risk free winnings Just going off exchange prices you can lay SOT @1.7 which equates to around 2.4 in back terms so 2.75 is decent

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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·11h

@jamie2965 Very true! Just adding that 1.70 on exchanges was probably a decent price (if you can not get on the super boost with wanted size) and that super boosts in general open up for good opportunities on exchanges - but obviously never as high prices as the boosts.🙏

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Jamie@jamie2965·11h

I absolutely agree that you can’t fully rely on exchange prices in these scenarios but regardless 365 odds of 1.4 were too short for the SOT so there was some value in the unders (as also shown by your estimated prices) My point moreover was IF someone wanted to go against the boost then the price of 2.75 was a good price & better than simply laying on the exchange

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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·12h

Just the one foul but directly from the match up we identified with the position match up tool 😮‍💨✅

PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio

🤕 Gutierrez Over 0.5 Fouls @ 1.41 ✅ Correct odds: 1.26 📊 Hit rate: 18/25 (72%) - odds implies 71% hit rate! 🤕 Gutierrez Over 1.5 Fouls @ 2.95 ✅ Correct odds: 2.15 📊 Hit rate: 8/25 (32%) - odds implies 34% hit rate! Not playing Gutierrez numbers here at all, we are playing his opponent(s)! Gutierrez has not been a heavy fouler for Napoli, 1+ Fouls in 4/9 which is horrible for odds @ 1.40. However, Palestra is expected to start down the right side of Cagliari - he's won 3.40 fouls / game which is close to 300% more compared to other players in similar positions. LBs, LM, LWs have been committing far more fouls than their averages when up against Palestra - that's where the edge lies! Paddy Power offers 1.20 and 1.91 here which is low, but still more correct than the Kambi odds in our eyes. Thanks for checking out all of our picks for the weekend, if you liked it and the research tools provided make sure to check out our site. 🧵(7/7) *Correct odds is not an exact figure, it will always be an estimate +/- 15% depending on sample size selected and how you weight opponents, opponent players etc. That's why it's important to always have some room for errors in your pricing and not bet every single % of edge when it comes to props. Betting 1.80 with 1.72 fair does not make to much sense in our eyes, at least using the system that we provide!

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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·15h

Great to see that the odds history works as intended, Kambi very soft to volume so odds drops after a shared bet was expected!

PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio

🤕 Pellegrino Over 1.5 Fouls @ 1.80 ✅ Correct odds: 1.47 📊 Hit rate: 17/25 (68%) - odds implies 55% hit rate! Good match up here for Pellegrino, Cremonese as a team wins 2% more fouls than the League Average and Strikers versus Cremonese commits 20% more fouls compared to the average. 9/22 Strikers in the last 15 games versus Cremonese has committed 2+ fouls and Pellegrino ranks in the very top for fouls committed as a striker. Odds was a bit higher earlier today, opened at 2.08 but someone got there before us! Still good value in 1.80 however. 2 Fouls in the last H2H game versus Cremonese. 🧵(3/7)

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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·16h

🤕 Gutierrez Over 0.5 Fouls @ 1.41 ✅ Correct odds: 1.26 📊 Hit rate: 18/25 (72%) - odds implies 71% hit rate! 🤕 Gutierrez Over 1.5 Fouls @ 2.95 ✅ Correct odds: 2.15 📊 Hit rate: 8/25 (32%) - odds implies 34% hit rate! Not playing Gutierrez numbers here at all, we are playing his opponent(s)! Gutierrez has not been a heavy fouler for Napoli, 1+ Fouls in 4/9 which is horrible for odds @ 1.40. However, Palestra is expected to start down the right side of Cagliari - he's won 3.40 fouls / game which is close to 300% more compared to other players in similar positions. LBs, LM, LWs have been committing far more fouls than their averages when up against Palestra - that's where the edge lies! Paddy Power offers 1.20 and 1.91 here which is low, but still more correct than the Kambi odds in our eyes. Thanks for checking out all of our picks for the weekend, if you liked it and the research tools provided make sure to check out our site. 🧵(7/7) *Correct odds is not an exact figure, it will always be an estimate +/- 15% depending on sample size selected and how you weight opponents, opponent players etc. That's why it's important to always have some room for errors in your pricing and not bet every single % of edge when it comes to props. Betting 1.80 with 1.72 fair does not make to much sense in our eyes, at least using the system that we provide!

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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·16h

🤕 Maleh Over 1.5 Fouls @ 1.98 ✅ Correct odds: 1.60 📊 Hit rate: 14/25 (56%) - odds implies 51% hit rate! First one of our picks here where the hit rate and implied odds does not differ massively - but here's our angle! For his new club Cremonese Maleh has committed 2+ fouls in 6/7 games with an average of 2.57 fouls per game. Paddy Power with 1.40 times your money here which seems more fair given his foul record for his new club. 🧵(6/7)

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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·16h

We used the Value Scanner to find the best opportunities for Player Fouls betting on Kambi bookies. 5⃣ Here's a complete thread with our top 5 picks and why they're +EV bets according to our tools on propsdata. 🔖Make sure to bookmark this so that you can come back and check the results for yourself after the weekend. 🚨 The 5-way acca pays 56x your money! Kambi Bookies = Unibet, BetMGM, LeoVegas, BetUK etc. Let's get going!🧵(1/7)

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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·20h

Forgot to mention, we also added a tab for odds history 🫡

PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio

Improved mobile layout for Propsdata and "Balanced" mode introduced for the Value Scanner. Balanced mode is a "combined value" calculated with the values of Last 5, Last 15 and Last 25 games, the different sample sizes have different weight in the calculations, L5 with the lowest to remove randomness and focus on the longterm trends. All previous options still available in the application of course, just another option to choose from! Questions? Send us a DM! 📩

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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·20h

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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·20h

Improved mobile layout for Propsdata and "Balanced" mode introduced for the Value Scanner. Balanced mode is a "combined value" calculated with the values of Last 5, Last 15 and Last 25 games, the different sample sizes have different weight in the calculations, L5 with the lowest to remove randomness and focus on the longterm trends. All previous options still available in the application of course, just another option to choose from! Questions? Send us a DM! 📩

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PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics@propsdataio·1d

@EliasVibjerg Most likely sub would be Igor Jesus and we do not think there's a lot of value in the super sub here, the value is in Lucca playing not someone else! Could always lower our fair odds 5% or so for Super-Sub for players never really playing the full 90.