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⚽️ Lamine Yamal Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.0 (B365, MGM) ⚽️ Mbappe H2H v Yamal @ 1.44 (B365, MGM) ⚽️ Oyarzabal Spain Topscorer @ 2.65 (Betsson) This is a play on the minutes of Lamine Yamal in the two opening games, there's no way to be 100% certain about this but we're willing to bet on the minutes to be limited. Close to half of the expected amount of goals for Spain in the tournament comes versus Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia: 6.22 out of 12.49 expected Goals. Based off the information that's available, we know that Yamal did not play anything in the friendlies, he was not even on the bench in the last one but he's progressing well in training according to coach De La Fuente. Reports saying that Barcelona have wished for Yamal to play gradually in the first games so we have simulated his expected goals based off Barcelonas wishes: "The club’s preferred blueprint is for Yamal to play approximately 15 minutes against Cape Verde, around 60 minutes against Saudi Arabia, and then be in a position to complete the full 90 against Uruguay in the final group stage fixture." With that being said there's a good chance that Lamine Yamal plays less if Spain have already secured to group win ahead of R3, as the best teams are expected to rotate heavily due to the increase of games this world cup where finalists will play 8 games within one month time. For these calculations we have used the feature on our site called Usage. We simulate how many goals there's expected for Spain, France etc. and then we try to estimate how many of these goals will be scored by Lamine Yamal, Mbappe, Oyarzabal. The most important one - Lamine Yamal: Spain data: 8.7% of Spains goals, we see this as unreasonably low however and have used his Barcelona data to create a more reliable number. Barcelona data: 26.7% usage, drops to 21.2% if we remove penalties which Oyarzabal is expected to be on for Spain. We simulated with 15, 20 and 25% usage to see the differences in valuations and see if the bookies odds are reasonable given the expected playing minutes. For Mbappe we have been expecting 30-35% usage and Oyarzabal 25-30% usage for our calculations. Bookies implies that it's much tighter between Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal than our calculations given reduced playing minutes, mainly due to the heavy load of goals expected to be scored by Spain in the opening games. We'd have Oyarzabal closer to 2.25 given that Yamal plays a limited amount in the first two games. As mentioned earlier, this is a bet on Yamals playing time and the worst case if he is playing all the games we still see a limited downside with these odds, there's no huge -EV positions if he is playing. To us it seems like the prices is simply expecting him to be playing in all games as usual. The three bets above are correlated, stake accordingly.

Mbappe: 1 Game, 45% chance to score 1+ Goals. 🇫🇷 0.598 Expected Goals Messi: 2 Games 40% chance to score in each game. 🇦🇷 1.022 Expected Goals Kane: 2 Games 40% Chance to score in each. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 1.022 Expected Goals Bellingham: 2 Games 30% Chance to score in each. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 0.713 Expected Goals Would expect Mbappe to play and there to be a much higher goal line in the Bronze game compared to the Final. Given these estimates above we’ve the following correct odds inc. dead heat as tie-breaker: 🇫🇷 Mbappe @ 2.89 🇦🇷 Messi @ 1.73 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Kane @ 18.93 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Bellingham @ 43.08 Numbers here conservative to the Mbappe side and far from “perfect”. If he plays the 3rd place game which we have to assume if we are taking this bet he’s probably closer to if not above 50% chance to score. Without looking too closely I would expect the 3rd place game to have a goal line almost 1 goal higher than the Final. So best case would be Spain - Argentina in the Final and then France gets to play England in a goal fest with a Mbappe hat trick 🎯

Mbappe: 1 Game, 45% chance to score 1+ Goals. 🇫🇷 0.598 Expected Goals Messi: 2 Games 40% chance to score in each game. 🇦🇷 1.022 Expected Goals Kane: 2 Games 40% Chance to score in each. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 1.022 Expected Goals Bellingham: 2 Games 30% Chance to score in each. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 0.713 Expected Goals Would expect Mbappe to play and there to be a much higher goal line in the Bronze game compared to the Final. Given these estimates above we’ve the following correct odds inc. dead heat as tie-breaker: 🇫🇷 Mbappe @ 2.89 🇦🇷 Messi @ 1.73 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Kane @ 18.93 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Bellingham @ 43.08 Numbers here conservative to the Mbappe side and far from “perfect”. If he plays the 3rd place game which we have to assume if we are taking this bet he’s probably closer to if not above 50% chance to score. Without looking too closely I would expect the 3rd place game to have a goal line almost 1 goal higher than the Final. So best case would be Spain - Argentina in the Final and then France gets to play England in a goal fest with a Mbappe hat trick 🎯

Mbappe: 1 Game, 45% chance to score 1+ Goals. 🇫🇷 0.598 Expected Goals Messi: 2 Games 40% chance to score in each game. 🇦🇷 1.022 Expected Goals Kane: 2 Games 40% Chance to score in each. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 1.022 Expected Goals Bellingham: 2 Games 30% Chance to score in each. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 0.713 Expected Goals Would expect Mbappe to play and there to be a much higher goal line in the Bronze game compared to the Final. Given these estimates above we’ve the following correct odds inc. dead heat as tie-breaker: 🇫🇷 Mbappe @ 2.89 🇦🇷 Messi @ 1.73 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Kane @ 18.93 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Bellingham @ 43.08 Numbers here conservative to the Mbappe side and far from “perfect”. If he plays the 3rd place game which we have to assume if we are taking this bet he’s probably closer to if not above 50% chance to score. Without looking too closely I would expect the 3rd place game to have a goal line almost 1 goal higher than the Final. So best case would be Spain - Argentina in the Final and then France gets to play England in a goal fest with a Mbappe hat trick 🎯

⚽️ Mbappe Top Goalscorer @ 3.50-3.75 Should be good as long as he plays in the bronze match 🙏 Has to be playing, right?

Have to take KDB SOT here @ 2.50+ w B365, we have lower average and usage model values. Obviously not perfect that he was subbed early before and no substitute except maybe Lukaku can match his production in terms of shots in Belgium but worth a shot here in our eyes! 🇧🇪