Bear | Watch Dealer

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Unemployed car club

The public facing watch market on chrono and eBay is either already priced in or prices are highly inaccurate The few listings with below market are fake listings done by dealers to generate traffic I tried to automate buying years ago but ran into too many hurdles, best way will and always be manual trenching Great idea nonetheless

i can admit when i was wrong. so there's good news and bad news: bad news: sniping modern pateks/rolexes on ebay is not a thing. it's an ~efficient market good news: passing unidetified manhattan estate liquidation lot images through a vision model to find mispricings appears to be a thing the core of the thesis has evolved to: find auction pools where the clearing price is structurally depressed for reasons unrelated to what the item is, and value it against the current bid you thought C-tier perp DEX RWA flow was soft? how about regional pickup-only estate liquidation listings that busted up old japanese paper divider that sat next to Gramps' writing corner? it's worth $12,000 to a collector, but the top bid is for $30, and the seller just wants it gone Maw Maw's favorite brooch listed for $120? it's tiffany and it's worth $25,000 but nobody knows these valuations except a few thousand people in the entire USA per niche category. and the odds that they are going to sift thourgh hundreds of thousands of random listings daily that are mislabeled (or, more commonly, unlabeled) to find all mispricings is ~0 so i (claude) built a tool to scrape nyc tri-state area estate liquidation sales, price listings, and surface the gems first pass does a claude haiku 4.5 valuation. 2nd pass (manual) is an opus 4.7 valuation for the high ticket items with low bids. on many thousands of listings per day manhattan is a particularly good sub-market for this (although probably more efficient than some) because of the concentration of wealth but any major metro will have some inefficiency / insane deals -- to expand on the thesis a bit edge comes primarily from the venue, not the query. we are trying to stack multiple qualifiers from the following list to determine likely 'soft' venues for listing discovery A. limited bidder pool - small venue, obscure platform, in-person, local-only B. wrong bidder pool - charity gala, corporate event, room full of non-specialists C. friction - pickup only, wire/cash only, old bad website D. non-monetary motivation - tax deduction > price, speed > price (estate, divorce, bankruptcy) E. information asymmetry - seller doesn't know what they have F. time-boxed release - court deadlines, closeouts, lapsed reservations scraping currently on estate liquidations in the tri-state area but i think there is probably softer flow out there. maybe charity auctions or court-ordered liquidations ---- good side project, will continue

@Dior100x 812>>> Just be careful, they’re notoriously hard to handle and traction is non existent

Custom 1 of 1 Full Titanium RSR exhaust Thank you @r1motorsport 🙏

Alhamdulillah @TFNF_’s new delivery vehicle ✅

@Executivejeff1 @IDogggg

accounts payable son or accounts receivable daughter

Posts like these are single handily raising the prices of the watches being posted You have a dozen dealers all posting they’re looking for a specific watch, and boom market is up 10%

Repeat after me I will not pay $30k for a Pepsi because it’s rumored to be discontinued I will not pay $30k for a Pepsi because it’s rumored to be discontinued I will not pay $30k for a Pepsi because it’s rumored to be discontinued

@trenchesborn @Autist

crypto nigga selling his rolex is the equivalent of a hood nigga selling his ps5

@Quanterty Real

Can vouch !

You think you’ve seen everything, and this pops up Patek Phillipe slippers

Ironically from a movie called “the gambler” If you’ve made a couple dollars on chain, watch this And watch it again Then again And once more

@stockxsucks @AltAssetKing Course selling has been tainted by the bad actors unfortunately But WTA or ECH are prob one of the best roi courses you could buy And some of the richest people on the planet do paid consulting or speaking events once they’re old lol

@AltAssetKing if you’re so rich why do you sell a course? no one who’s actually rich at 50 sells a course lmfao.

100k is still unfathomably poor

Bringing more liquidity with the downside of equally as much volatility if not more How this pans out only time will tell

OPERATION EPIC FURY 🇺🇸

Iced Out Cartier Santos Large Box & Papers Here for ONLY $8k ✅

Rolex Daytona “John Mayer” The worst performing hype watch of the last 12 months Price is in a slow bleed from ATH, low liquidity and virtually no demand At some point it should bottom out and stay steady but one of the worst Daytonas you could buy right now

My god is this gorgeous

@JoeW6_ The window sticker on this must be insane

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