Samurai
54 posts
Samurai
@reportinglive
Cut through the noise. Markets · Macro · News.
Beigetreten Ağustos 2023
162 Folgt94 Follower
According to CNN, citing a U.S. official, new details have emerged about the U.S.-Iran MOU, following Iran’s release of their version of the deal and U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s comments refuting their claims.
Per the U.S. official, the deal includes an Iranian commitment not to fund terror groups abroad, the destruction and removal of enriched material, the dismantling of Iran’s wider nuclear program, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the release of frozen Iranian assets and funds, contingent on their compliance with the deal.
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Samurai retweetet
NEW: Developers are reviving plans for a mile-long, nuclear-powered "floating city" with homes, schools, hospitals, parks, & space for 80,000 people.
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SpaceX just filed its S-1. The largest IPO in history may be 3 weeks away.
Here's what's inside:
- Ticker: SPCX on NASDAQ
- Target IPO date: June 12
- Target valuation: $1.75 TRILLION
- 2025 revenue: $18.7 billion
- 2025 net loss: $4.9 billion
Where the revenue comes from:
Starlink: $11.4B
Rocket launches: $4B
xAI division: $3.2B
Here's the wild part: SpaceX spent $20 billion on capex in 2025 - 60% of it went to AI. Not rockets. AI.
The filing claims SpaceX has "identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history" - $28.5 trillion. $22.7 trillion of that is attributed to AI enterprise applications.
Oh, and Musk retains 85.1% voting power after the IPO. You can buy the stock. You can't influence the company.
Plans to acquire AI coding startup Cursor 30 days after listing. The rockets are almost secondary now.
$1.75 trillion. Loss-making. Musk holds all the votes. Still going to be the most talked-about IPO since Meta.
Would you buy SPCX on day one? 🚀
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The 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.2% - the highest since 2007. Here's why that matters to you even if you've never bought a bond.
Think of Treasury bonds as the US government borrowing money from investors. The yield is the interest rate it pays back. When that rate rises, it ripples through everything.
Why is it rising right now?
- The Iran war has sent oil prices surging - keeping inflation elevated
- Investors are nervous about US debt after the new spending bill
- Moody's just downgraded the US credit rating
- The Fed isn't cutting rates anytime soon
What does a 5.2% 30-year yield actually mean for you?
- Mortgage rates go higher - buying a home gets more expensive
- Credit card rates stay painfully high
- Car loans cost more
- The government pays more interest on its $36 trillion debt - leaving less for everything else
Citi says 5.5% could be next. A Bank of America survey shows 62% of fund managers expect it to hit 6% - a level not seen since 1999.
Here's the simple version: when the cost of borrowing goes up for the US government, it goes up for everyone. And right now it's heading in one direction.
How high before something breaks?
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The Senate just advanced a resolution to end Trump's war with Iran. Here's what that actually means.
Today's 50-47 vote cleared the procedural hurdle to bring the War Powers Resolution to the floor. 4 Republicans broke ranks: Collins, Murkowski, Rand Paul, and Bill Cassidy - who flipped at the last minute.
The resolution would direct Trump to pull US forces out of hostilities with Iran unless Congress explicitly authorizes the war.
Why does this matter? Under the War Powers Act, a president must seek congressional authorization within 60 days of deploying forces. That deadline has already passed. Congress has never formally authorized this war.
What happens next:
- The Senate still needs to vote on final passage
- Then it goes to the House - where Republican leadership will likely try to kill it
- Even if both chambers pass it, Trump is expected to veto
- Congress would then need a 2/3 majority in both chambers to override - almost certainly impossible
So will it stop the war? Probably not. But it's the first time the Senate has advanced this resolution after 7 failed attempts - and it puts every member of Congress on the record about whether this war has been legally authorized.
The Constitution says only Congress can declare war. That debate is now officially on the floor.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: After 7 failed attempts, the US Senate has advanced a measure that would require congressional approval for continued military strikes on Iran. In a 50-47 vote, the Senate has now officially advanced the Iran War Powers Resolution.
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Trump called off a planned military strike on Iran today. Oil dropped - then jumped back to $112.
Here's the full picture:
- Jan 2026: Brent at $61/barrel
- Feb 28: Strait of Hormuz effectively closed - prices surge
- Apr 7: Peak at $132/barrel
- May 6: Near-deal report - oil falls 7% in a single day
- May 18: Attack called off at request of Gulf allies - $112 today
The whiplash is the story. Every rumor of a deal sends oil down. Every escalation sends it up.
Meanwhile Trump told the Pentagon to be ready for "a full, large scale assault on a moment's notice" if a deal falls through.
Saudi Aramco's CEO: if Hormuz stays blocked past June, no normalization until 2027. The IEA says supply will be severely undersupplied until October - even if fighting ends today.
The gap between a deal and no deal? About $60/barrel.
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WHO just declared Ebola a global health emergency. Here's what's happening.
An outbreak of Bundibugyo Ebola virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been spreading since at least early May. As of today:
- ~338 suspected cases, 89 deaths in DRC
- Spread to Uganda - 2 confirmed cases in Kampala within 24 hours of each other
- 1 American tested positive while working in DRC - being flown to Germany for treatment
- 6 other Americans being sent to Germany for observation
Here's the critical detail most people are missing: this is the Bundibugyo strain - not the more common Ebola-Zaire. There are NO approved vaccines or treatments specifically for this strain.
Trump was asked about it today. His response: "I am concerned."
No vaccine. No antiviral. And a 26% fatality rate.
Is the world prepared for this? 🧬
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Hantavirus update - May 17.
A Manhattan resident was on the hantavirus cruise ship. She came home. Walked around NYC freely.
The CDC never told New York health authorities she was potentially exposed.
This is the part of the story that should get more attention:
- 147 passengers from 23 countries dispersed globally after docking May 10
- Incubation period: up to 45 days
- At least 3 NY residents were aboard - NYC, Orange County, Westchester
- NYC hasn't had a hantavirus case since 1995 - officials weren't even on alert
Meanwhile, upstate NY (Ontario County) is now investigating a separate locally-acquired case at a high school - unrelated to the ship entirely.
12 cases. 3 deaths. 38% fatality rate. Passengers scattered across the globe. And public health authorities in one of the world's most densely populated cities weren't looped in.
The virus may be contained. The communication breakdown is harder to explain.
Samurai@reportinglive
Hantavirus update - May 12. 11 cases. 3 deaths. 38% fatality rate. Now spread across 9+ countries from a single cruise ship. But here's what's getting less attention - scientists think it may be more transmissible than initially believed. In a 2018 Andes virus outbreak in Argentina, one infected person at a birthday party spread the virus to someone sitting 1-2 meters away. Possibly just from saying hello. That single event produced 34 cases and 11 deaths. The problem: we only count people sick enough to be hospitalized. How many get exposed and just build antibodies silently? Nobody knows. So when WHO says "low global risk" - that assessment is built on incomplete data. No vaccine. No antiviral. A 38% death rate. And transmission mechanics we still don't fully understand. Not COVID. But worth watching very closely.
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Hantavirus update - May 12.
11 cases. 3 deaths. 38% fatality rate. Now spread across 9+ countries from a single cruise ship.
But here's what's getting less attention - scientists think it may be more transmissible than initially believed.
In a 2018 Andes virus outbreak in Argentina, one infected person at a birthday party spread the virus to someone sitting 1-2 meters away. Possibly just from saying hello. That single event produced 34 cases and 11 deaths.
The problem: we only count people sick enough to be hospitalized. How many get exposed and just build antibodies silently? Nobody knows.
So when WHO says "low global risk" - that assessment is built on incomplete data.
No vaccine. No antiviral. A 38% death rate. And transmission mechanics we still don't fully understand.
Not COVID. But worth watching very closely.
Samurai@reportinglive
Hantavirus update - May 11. Cases have risen to 11 since we last covered this. Here's what's changed: France now has its first confirmed case - condition is deteriorating. 8 others are isolated in hospital and 22 contact cases have been traced on repatriation flights alone. In the US: 1 American confirmed positive, 1 symptomatic. 16 passengers are now quarantined at UNMC Nebraska's biocontainment unit across 7 states. The ship docked in Tenerife yesterday. Passengers have been repatriated - which means exposed individuals are now spread across 10+ countries. The 42-day WHO monitoring window is the number to watch. Until that clock runs out for every passenger, we won't know the full scope. No antiviral exists. Mortality rate historically sits at 25-35%. Still not COVID - but it's no longer contained to a ship.
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Beef is becoming a luxury - and it's not coming back anytime soon.
Ground beef just hit $6.70/lb. That's up 63% since 2020.
The cause isn't inflation alone. America's cattle herd just hit its lowest level since 1951:
- 86.2 million head as of Jan 2026
- Down from 94.7M at the peak in 2019
- Drought + high feed costs pushed ranchers to sell herds, not rebuild them
- Cattle cycles take 3-5 years minimum to reverse
USDA is forecasting another 6-10% price increase before year-end.
Fortune put it bluntly: beef prices won't meaningfully recover before 2028.
Can't have a cow, man - literally. The herd is at a 75-year low and the price tag proves it.
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The humanoid robot race is on - and it's closer to a fight than most people realize.
Here's where every major player stands right now:
China - already winning on volume
Unitree: 5,500 robots sold in 2025 - world's top seller
Agibot: 5,168 units shipped in 2025, hit its 10,000th robot in March 2026
New factory in Guangdong producing 10,000 units/year, opened March 2026
Target: 28,000-100,000 units deployed by end of 2026
China controls ~90% of global humanoid robot sales
Figure AI - quietly impressive
Figure 03 is running an 11-month pilot at BMW's South Carolina plant
Built 30,000+ vehicles, loaded 90,000+ parts over 1,250 robot hours
Real factory work. Not demos.
Tesla Optimus - biggest ambitions, slowest start
Target: 1 million units/year at 20-30K each
Missed its 2025 production target of 5,000 units
Factory testing underway, public sales eyed for late 2027
The pattern here looks familiar. China scales fast and cheap using existing supply chains - the same factories that drove down smartphone costs are now doing the same for actuators and sensors.
The US has better software. China has better manufacturing. Sound familiar?
This is the AI race, but physical.
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Hantavirus update - May 11.
Cases have risen to 11 since we last covered this. Here's what's changed:
France now has its first confirmed case - condition is deteriorating. 8 others are isolated in hospital and 22 contact cases have been traced on repatriation flights alone.
In the US: 1 American confirmed positive, 1 symptomatic. 16 passengers are now quarantined at UNMC Nebraska's biocontainment unit across 7 states.
The ship docked in Tenerife yesterday. Passengers have been repatriated - which means exposed individuals are now spread across 10+ countries.
The 42-day WHO monitoring window is the number to watch. Until that clock runs out for every passenger, we won't know the full scope.
No antiviral exists. Mortality rate historically sits at 25-35%.
Still not COVID - but it's no longer contained to a ship.
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Oil just dropped 7% in a week. The reason: Iran and the US might be close to a deal.
Here's where we are on day 71 of the Iran war.
Brent crude hit ~$150/barrel at the peak when the Strait of Hormuz closed - the world's most critical oil chokepoint, carrying 20% of global supply. It's now sitting at $101, falling fast on news that a 14-point ceasefire memo is being drafted via Pakistani mediators.
The two scenarios from here:
Deal reached: analysts expect an immediate $10-20 drop, then a floor around $85-90. The Strait reopens but supply chain damage means prices won't return to the pre-war $67 - not for months at least.
Talks collapse: we're likely back toward $120+ fast. Tehran already launched strikes on the UAE when the US tried to escort vessels through the strait.
The sticking point right now is nuclear enrichment. Iran wants a 5-year moratorium. The US is demanding 20. The likely landing zone is 12-15 years - but nothing is agreed yet.
Iran is still reviewing the US proposal as of today.
The difference between these two outcomes is roughly $30-40/barrel - and trillions of dollars in economic impact globally.
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The Iran war isn't just hitting oil prices. It's hitting your flight costs too - hard.
Here's what's changed since February 23:
Domestic round-trip: $335 - now $361 (+8%)
International round-trip: $774 - now $1,097 (+42%)
Jet fuel: $85/barrel - now $150-200 (+101%)
The fuel spike is the root cause. Jet fuel is 20-30% of an airline's total operating costs. When it doubles, everything else follows.
It's not just fares either:
All major US carriers raised checked bag fees $10/bag in April
3,400+ flights were cancelled across Middle East airports
Airlines rerouting around closed airspace are burning an extra $6,000-$7,500 per flight hour
And here's the part nobody wants to hear: even when the conflict ends, experts say fares won't come back down for 12 months or more. Airlines don't rush to lower prices after a crisis.
If you have travel planned this year - book now. Waiting will cost you.
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Tech is laying off workers at the fastest pace since 2023 - and AI is increasingly the reason why.
The numbers since 2022:
2022: 165,000 cut
2023: 264,000 cut - peak of the post-pandemic correction
2024: 153,000 cut - things seemed to be cooling
2025: 124,000 cut - lowest since the wave began
2026: 92,000 already gone in just 4 months - annualised that's ~246,000
The trend that seemed to be calming down is accelerating again. And this time the driver isn't over-hiring. It's AI.
In Q1 2026, nearly 50% of tech job cuts were explicitly attributed to AI. In April alone, AI was cited in 26% of all US layoffs across every sector.
March 2026 was the worst single month in over two years - 45,800 cuts. Oracle alone cut 30,000. Amazon has cut 30,000 since October. Meta and Microsoft combined for 20,000 in April.
Here's the paradox: the same companies cutting workers are spending $725 billion on AI infrastructure this year. And 275,000 AI-related jobs are sitting open right now - paying 56% more than the roles being eliminated.
The jobs aren't disappearing. They're being replaced.
Customer support, QA, content moderation, middle management - out. ML engineers, AI safety researchers, data infrastructure - in demand and underfilled.
The question isn't whether AI is taking jobs. It's whether the people losing them can become the people filling the new ones.
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Waymo has 3,200 vehicles on the road. Tesla has 39 fully unsupervised.
That gap is real - but it may be the wrong number to focus on.
Here's the full Tesla picture per live fleet data:
666 total tracked vehicles already deployed
551 in the Bay Area - supervised for now, but awaiting one regulatory green light
104 in Austin, 5 in Dallas, 6 in Houston
39 fully unsupervised and growing fast - the curve only just turned vertical
Waymo has a genuine head start. But it took them years and billions in custom hardware to get to 3,200 vehicles across a handful of cities.
Tesla already has 666 vehicles on the road built on the same hardware it sells to consumers. No custom sensors. No city-by-city rebuilds. Just software updates.
The moment regulators approve unsupervised operation in the Bay Area, Tesla could flip 551 vehicles driverless overnight. That's not a maybe - the vehicles are already there.
Waymo is winning the race that already started. Tesla is trying to change what race we're running.
With 666 tracked vehicles, a Cybercab production line now running, and a target of 2 million units per year - the scoreboard could look very different by 2027.
Which company's bet do you believe in?
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A cruise ship just triggered a multi-country hantavirus outbreak. Here's what you need to know.
The MV Hondius departed Argentina in late April. Within days, passengers started getting sick. 3 are now dead - a Dutch couple and a German national. 8 confirmed cases so far, and health authorities across 4 continents are tracking down everyone who disembarked early.
The strain is Andes virus - the only type of hantavirus known to spread person-to-person, likely via respiratory droplets in close contact. The confined quarters of a cruise ship cabin made it especially high risk.
5 US states are currently monitoring 7 people: Arizona, California, Georgia, Texas, and Virginia.
Argentina reported 101 hantavirus infections since June 2025 - roughly double the same period last year.
So is this the next COVID?
Experts say almost certainly not. It doesn't spread through casual contact, the WHO expects no large epidemic, and no US cases have been confirmed.
Still worth watching - this is exactly how the early COVID headlines read too.
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Chamath just told a retail investor who lost money in his SPACs to "uSe ThE cApItAl LoSsEs" as a tax write-off.
Here's what those losses actually look like, at today's prices:
🔴 Virgin Galactic — −99% (peak ~$55 → $2.59 post 20:1 reverse split)
🔴 Clover Health — −93% (peak ~$28 → ~$2.05)
🔴 Opendoor — −86% (peak ~$35 → $5.05)
Across all 18 of his SPACs: median loss from peak −75%.
His new 2025 SPAC? 98.7% went to institutions. 1.3% to retail. He literally restructured it to keep you out.
(SoFi is the one exception — it recovered. Everything else didn't.)
The capital losses are real though.
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath
@nick_vladkis @troyhouse Then you generated capital losses. Did you use those yet??
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Everyone assumed prediction markets needed a presidential election to print big numbers. February proved them wrong.
Kalshi + Polymarket hit $17.9B — the 2nd biggest month on record.
What actually drove it:
→ $2.21B on sports alone (NBA, March Madness warm-up, Olympics hockey)
→ Sustained political/macro trading every single week → Iran? That was the last 2 days. March is when that hits the numbers.
The floor has permanently shifted.
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