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One of these two groups is mispriced
Private AI labs: OpenAI valued around $840B, Anthropic north of $600B on secondaries. Both at 30x+ ARR.
Public giants: Microsoft at ~$3T on 23x forward earnings. Amazon at ~$2.3T on 28x.
Microsoft likely owns ~25% of OpenAI. Amazon likely owns ~15% of Anthropic and ~5% of OpenAI
If private investors are pricing these labs for a $5T+ venture-style outcome then…
Microsoft’s implied stake in a $5T OpenAI is $1.25T embedded inside a $3T company. Amazon’s combined stakes embed roughly $1T inside a $2.3T company.
Publics too cheap on Al exposure? Or privates/secondaries in bubble territory? Which breaks first?
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