St. John O’Callaghan

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St. John O’Callaghan

St. John O’Callaghan

@st_sinjun

"Do you want to be right or make money"...Ned Davis "We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." …Ayn Rand

Northern Hemisphere Beigetreten Ocak 2020
295 Folgt172 Follower
FXHedge
FXHedge@Fxhedgers·
Most European countries have closed their oil and natural gas production, despite still having economically viable reserves. Germany blew up all of their nuclear power plants also, which used to provide 31% of their electricity 25 years ago. Europeans sanctioned Russian oil and natural gas, dramatically reducing that supply source. Germany allowed Ukraine/Britain/USA to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline and did nothing about it. Now oil and natural gas from the Persian Guld has been reduced by Iran threatening ships trying to pass thru the Strait of Hormuz. European energy policy is a disaster and at this point it almost seems intentional.
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Victor Bigham 🇺🇸
Victor Bigham 🇺🇸@Ravious101·
Teaching them how to swim This can be hard to watch Do you feel this is the right way to train them?
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St. John O’Callaghan
St. John O’Callaghan@st_sinjun·
@EricLDaugh Boomer hippies that never changed. There are lots of them and that's why DEMs still have a "legal" voting base. They'll be gone before too much longer.
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Eric Daugherty
Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh·
🚨 WOW! New footage shows "No Kings" in North Carolina is almost ENTIRELY composed of old white liberals This is insane. How did they get so brainwashed?!
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Amjad Taha أمجد طه
The UAE will show the world what strength is made of. The UAE will show the EU and NATO how to be brave. The UAE will make sure the Islamic regime in Iran never, ever targets us again. Never again. We lead. We protect. We win. And the Middle East moves forward without Islamist terrorists.
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Globe Observer
Globe Observer@_GlobeObserver·
🚨 BREAKING: The UAE has seized $530 billion in Iranian assets, revoked all Iranian residency permits including Golden Visas, despite earlier “99‑year residency” promises
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St. John O’Callaghan
St. John O’Callaghan@st_sinjun·
@DiabloCanyonCA I worked 27 midnights on a stretch at Sequoyah outage tagging one year. Nice memory....seems better in hindsight. Eat, sleep, work. Many know the feeling.
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Diablo Canyon Power Plant
Diablo Canyon Power Plant@DiabloCanyonCA·
Bring multiple copies of your resume to the Diablo Canyon Outage Hiring Information Fair April 2 from 3:00-4:30pm and 5:30-7:00pm at the Embassy Suites in San Luis Obispo.
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St. John O’Callaghan retweetet
CrowdQuantify
CrowdQuantify@CrowdQuantify·
Everyone is staring at oil and CPI, but the more interesting signal is deeper in the plumbing. Reuters reports the Iran shock has pushed U.S. Treasury volatility to its highest level since the global financial crisis, widened bid-ask spreads in short-dated notes by roughly 30%, and coincided with about $75 billion of Treasury selling over four weeks. Reuters also reports that emerging-market borrowing, after a record Q1 start, is now freezing as spreads widen and high-yield outflows pick up. This does not prove a systemic break. But it does suggest this is not “just” an energy story. When the benchmark collateral market gets jumpier and marginal sovereign borrowers lose easy access at the same time, the message is about capital structure, refinancing risk, and time. My read: markets are starting to price who can wait, and who cannot. reuters.com/markets/us/ira…
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St. John O’Callaghan
St. John O’Callaghan@st_sinjun·
On the unrealistic MSM and social media portrayal of the war in #IRAN: "The liberal internationalist left and the isolationist right — two camps that have agreed on almost nothing for decades — have suddenly found themselves in lockstep, racing to declare the war a failure before it had barely begun."
Mike@Doranimated

The world is truly upside down! The Washington Post has published a brilliant article, written by, get this, a professor! To give you some flavor, here are a few choice lines by @jmurtazashvili: 1) "We are living through the first alt-war: a conflict in which the war fought online and the war fought in reality have diverged so completely that they might as well be happening on different planets. It’s not that people lack information, it’s more that they are constructing an entirely different alternate reality — one that confirms what they already believe." 2) "What worries me more than the fake videos are the people who cannot fathom that this war is going well for the United States, for Israel and maybe even for the long-suffering people of Iran. The strategic picture is more favorable than the online narrative suggests." 3) "Two weeks into the war, I watch otherwise reasonable analysts sprint to catastrophe. Former officials, thinktank scholars, credentialed professionals who are supposed to know how to read a conflict. Within days they had written the obituary: quagmire, overreach, disaster." 4) "The liberal internationalist left and the isolationist right — two camps that have agreed on almost nothing for decades — have suddenly found themselves in lockstep, racing to declare the war a failure before it had barely begun. This is the new blob: not the old foreign-policy establishment that the term originally described but a new amalgamation that has arrived at the same conclusion from opposite directions. Together they are the most powerful engine of the alt-war." The truth. In the mainstream media. By a professor. And written well. Four things I thought I'd never see again in my lifetime.

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Grok
Grok@grok·
The NY Fed Q4 2025 report shows auto loan delinquencies steady near 3% (serious down slightly), not 5.2%. Subprime segments are stressed (~7% 60+ per Fitch), but this 2026 P-1 pool averages FICO 713 with 10.67% APR—prime-adjacent quality. CVNA's 2022 near-miss is history; post-restructure balance sheet is cleaner. Margin compression in public ABS is real per the quoted analysis, but private deals and used-car demand may offset. Watch EBITDA guidance.
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St. John O’Callaghan
St. John O’Callaghan@st_sinjun·
With U.S. auto loan delinquencies hitting 5.2% in Q4 2025 per Federal Reserve data—the highest since 2010—this ABS quality dip could elevate default risks for $CVNA, echoing 2022 pressures that nearly bankrupted the firm before its debt restructuring and stock rebound. from @grok
The Minotaur@MinotaurStocks

$CVNA 2026 P-1 continues the trend of public ABS economic erosion with over 100bps of estimated GoS margin compression vs. 2025 P-4. $CVNA recently claimed at $MS TMT that private pools are "market based" deals. Sell side better be sharpening those axes for more EBITDA cuts.

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St. John O’Callaghan
St. John O’Callaghan@st_sinjun·
@blue_chip1 Why do they want to change an obviously superior business plan? They're killing competition from around the world. I guess that the Garcia's love a challenge. These price trends aren't looking too good though.
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Bluechip
Bluechip@blue_chip1·
$CVNA Keeps Buying New Car dealers... Going to sell NEW cars to Subprime Buyers!! New Angle, Disruption coming to new cars dealers! LOL
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