stanielxyz
384 posts
it actually makes me sad to think about what the people of iran are feeling right now, the uncertainties of life and what’s next for them.
imagine living your day with the thought that you could be dead by noon, the impending thought of doom constantly.
i am beginning to dislike trump, innocent women and kids should not die due to the negligence of a egotistical lard.
may god bless all. praying for everyone.
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@SamuraiTakedown Iam still riding out my long lol. I have a double long going.... SnP short and oil long XD. Max bear.
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@stanielzeroone I entered because of the fake news ceasefire engineered dump
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@SamuraiTakedown What made you entry at 110? Was there a specific thing that made up your mind?
I assume you had your eye on this for the past few weeks. Was there not a point in time during 95-100 where you thought, fuck it we BALL?
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@moonlanding18 @NajamAli2020 You make it sound like killing leaders wont make them more crazy/aggresive.
Its proven time and time again that bombing people makes more extremists.
This is how you turn a ENTIRE nation against you. So what now? Your gonna kill every single iranian?
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My read on the Iran war endgame:
The final settlement will formalize what the battlefield already decided.
Iran gets permanent leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. In return: uranium enrichment stops, missiles capped at the current 2,000km range, and sanctions lifted immediately.
The non-aggression pact gets guaranteed by China or the UN and not Washington.
There is no other realistic outcome. Every escalation from here further weakens the U.S. position, not Iran’s.
Tehran has already won the strategic war, even as it loses the military one.
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@NajamAli2020 I dont think the UAE would ever agree to Iran having control over the Strait. And I would like to think the UAE has some power over USA politicians.
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@simon_ree I mean they can mine up Hormuz, Iam sure that would 100% close it xD at both parties demise.
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The market thinks this Iran shock is smaller than the April 2025 tariff tantrum
I think they’ve got it backwards
Tariffs were words. Words you can walk back. That’s the entire TACO trade. Trump takes out his big stick, markets puke, he rolls it back, markets exhale and everyone buys the dip
Bombs…yeah, you can’t roll them back
Yes, I get the bull case. Hormuz has been “about to close” since 1980 and never has. Shale, the SPR and Saudi spare capacity make the oil complex less fragile than it was in ’73. Iran has more to lose from closure than we do
All true. All priced.
Here’s what isn’t priced: you don’t need Hormuz to actually close. You just need the tail risk to fatten. Insurance, freight, tanker rerouting, refinery margins. The shock reverberates through the supply chain long before a single ship gets hit
And the Fed can’t cut into an energy shock without lighting inflation expectations on fire. So they sit on their hands while growth rolls over
Words you can take back. Killing people, dropping bombs on infrastructure…you can’t take that back. And you have no control over the other guy’s next move
Market pricing this like it’s a headline, not a regime change. I hope the market’s right
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@GarrettBullish @Garrett how does oil tanker transport ACTUALLY work?
Like at the rate the crisis is going. Would it be better NOT to deliver the oil? And just park your oil tanker at port and wait for oil to spike before selling? Or is there some sort of legal obligation they have?
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Phase 3. Hormuz still closed.
people saying hormuz is actually open and many boats with oil are passing through without AIS. if you find these boats please kindly introduce them to the asian countries so they don't have to compete for oil at $150, the current asian spot price
Garrett@GarrettBullish
Brent still Phase 1. G7 SPR "stands ready" — bluff, not fix. Ceasefire hopes — narrative, not ground truth. Lots of noise. Hardly any material change. The only question that matters: Is Hormuz open? Answer: No. Duration × Chokepoint. That's the trade.
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@commonsenseplay @WSJ @AmrithRamkumar reuters.com/business/quant…
Here it is, I dont think this was the one I read. But one of many I found.
I went long on quantum on the initial momentum rode it up then sold it. Cause honestly I dont ever see them making money lol. Good money made tho.
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@commonsenseplay @WSJ @AmrithRamkumar I did read some articles on government taking a stake in RGTI, let me see if i can find it.
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Once again, I’ll ask @WSJ. Where is your clarification statement regarding the article by Amrith Ramkumar @AmrithRamkumar claiming that the Trump administration was taking stakes in the four public quantum computing companies: $IONQ, $RGTI, $QUBT, and $QBTS?
That report caused a surge of retail investors to double down on their positions - and now these stocks are down 50% from the spike the article triggered.
Regardless of my position we need accountability for the impact of that misinformation!
Common Sense Investor (CSI)@commonsenseplay
The WSJ reporter right now must be in deep sh*t. $ionq $rgti $qubt $qbts
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Adding into my shorts here. Man I have 30% of my idle cash in shorts now. Is this what a gambling addiction is?
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@KookCapitalLLC Bookmarked will circle back. I think oil is fucked for the next month coming. And stocks will see lower lows.
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imo oil drops into the $70s over the next 4-6 weeks
idc what the headlines will be they are just cover anyways
but the oil top is in
i am expressing this view by being heavily long tech stocks and select crypto (btc + hype)
i am also short oil on hyperliquid
bookmark this
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@AviFelman 100% this. Helps so much with conviction. At the end of the day its not machines but you, everyday people who buy things and purchase services.
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The Citrini article reminded me of a story when I first started trading, they told me I was never going to compete with hedge funds because they "bought satellite imagery of walmart parking lots to estimate earnings"
Turned out to be reasonably unhelpful. But one thing I did learn is that my CIO would go into the retail stores he was thinking of buying the debt of and monitoring who, and what kinds of people were buying.
Human intelligence when investing is more underrated than ever in a world of LLMs and instant research. Go use the product you want to invest in. Go to the store. Buy the service. See it with your own eyes.
Maybe not everyone should go into an active war zone, but if you want to, at least take videos
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@kashyap286 @TankerTrackers @MarhelmData I mean its not far fetched that more ships are passing then reported?
I dont see how that is nonsense.
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I am amazed at all the smart people falling for Citrini's nonsense. Last month, he was an expert on AI, now, shipping, and supposedly, spying in a war zone.
If you want to know what's happening in the Strait, follow @TankerTrackers @MarhelmData
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta
This is wild: Citrini sent a dude with $15,000 cash, recording sunglasses, and a pack of Cuban cigars to the Strait of Hormuz. What he found flips everything Wall Street thinks about the strait on its head. Every hedge fund, every macro desk, every retired general on CNBC is watching the same AIS shipping data to price Hormuz risk. The analyst signed a pledge at an Omani checkpoint promising not to gather information, then smuggled in a gimbal, a microphone kit, and a 150x zoom Leica camera past the border officer who inspected his bag. What he discovered on the ground: the AIS data everyone is trading on is missing roughly half of what's actually transiting the strait on any given day. Ships are going dark, spoofing destinations, broadcasting "CHINESE CREW OWNER" through transponder fields to avoid getting hit. Iran's ghost fleet is running 29+ laden tankers inside the Gulf with transponders off, moving an estimated $3B in crude to Malaysia since the war started. The entire market is pricing a "closed" strait off satellite imagery and transponder data that has a 50% blind spot. Every oil model, every supply forecast, every macro call built on AIS throughput numbers is working from a dataset that systematically overstates the disruption. When the signals deliberately go dark, the people staring at dashboards are the last to know what's happening. Citrini figured that out by putting a guy on a speedboat 18 miles from the Iranian coast while Shahed drones flew overhead. The gap between "what AIS says" and "what's actually transiting" is the most mispriced variable in energy right now.
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@commonsenseplay One thing I cant seem to fully grasp is why WTI is trading above brent.
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- Paper Brent: $109
- Physical Brent: $141
That’s a $32 gap - the widest in modern oil market history. Paper is what CNBC or Fox news shows you.
Physical is what a refiner actually pays to get crude on a ship today!
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for three weeks. 1,000+ ships frozen. Seven P&I clubs pulled coverage. The $20B government insurance backstop didn’t reopen it. The record reserve release didn’t move the price.
Every tool has been deployed, and none of them has worked.
Jeff Currie at Carlyle: “You can’t print molecules.”
Oil is going far higher than consensus thinks. And the downstream repricing wave - diesel, petrochemicals, aluminum, construction materials - hasn’t even hit yet.
That arrives in 4–12 weeks.
This will accelerate the next recession. Inflation is now front and center, but hypothetically, if this turns out to be a global paralysis like COVID (e.g. some economies just stop, run out of energy), could it be that long term rates drop as in covid and long bond is the hedge $TLT.
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Key Events This Week:
1. Markets React to Trump's "48 Hour Warning" - 6 PM ET Today
2. March ISM Non-Manufacturing data - Monday
3. Trump's "Iran Power Plant and Bridge Day" - Tuesday
4. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday
5. February PCE Inflation data - Thursday
6. US Q4 2025 GDP data - Thursday
7. March CPI Inflation data - Friday
8. April MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday
9. April MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday
We expect extreme volatility ahead.
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Is analyst #3 gonna be able to make it out of Iran before Trump blows it up?
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@gainzy222 My feed was like that. Now I just actively block stupid stuff or brainrot posters.
It takes awhile but it DOES get better. Just requires some active blocking.
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@cryptolaanie Bro no way your out there touching grass with GIGA positions open over the weekend. Ice cold.
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