Marhelm

And 2025 is a wrap! Here were our 2025 picks Not pictured is Seabird Exploration, which was acquired mid year up > 50% (good for 100% TWR) Average pick returned ~50% for 2025, with 4/20 names providing a negative return Best pick returned > 300%, worst pick returned -23%

VLCC period deals are picking up as spot rates slide, with traders locking in term charters despite a pause in time-charter activity since the Strait of Hormuz closure.

Okeanis CEO Alafouzos says he regrets fixing 1 VLCC at ~$90,000/day for 12 months as he now eyes spot upside instead of long-term cover. 1-year VLCC rates hit ~$120,000/day vs West Africa–Asia spot at ~$117,500/day, underscoring extreme strength in the crude tanker market.

UAE plans to double crude export capacity bypassing the Strait of Hormuz by 2027 as the Iran war exposes chokepoint risk. ADNOC is expanding its Fujairah pipeline, adding to the existing 1.5 million barrels/day link from onshore fields to the Gulf of Oman port.

20-year-old LNG vessels (built 2005–2006) are becoming hot property as Hormuz disruption tightens LNG supply. At least 7 ships have changed hands, including the 145,000 cu m Grand Reach sold for ~$30m, with more units shifting to new owners and alternative flags.

The Hormuz crisis is reviving coal demand, with Arrow estimating 55m–65m tonnes of incremental demand, potentially removing ~100 capesize ships from the spot market. Meanwhile, ~1,100 dry bulk ships will turn 20 years old within 3 years as Chinese yard slots remain sold out until 2030.

Nearly 13 million barrels, or ~40%, of crude released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been exported to Europe and other destinations.

OPEC+ is doing quota hikes on paper while barrels remain stuck in reality. Members plan to unwind ~1.65 mb/d of cuts in stages through September, even though actual supply is still constrained by Gulf export disruptions.

Teekay Tankers just laid out the bull case for crude shipping. Hormuz disruption has cut Middle East exports by ~10 mb/d, pushing Atlantic Basin exports to record highs. Result: Q2 2026 spot rates exploding to: VLCC: $141.8k/day Suezmax: $121.8k/day Aframax/LR2: $98k/day $TK

Okeanis Eco Tankers is showing how violent a tanker upside can become. Q1 2026: Revenue doubled to $170.2m Profit surged to $88.3m EPS hit $2.31 Cash climbed to $176.5m Meanwhile, Q2 VLCC bookings are already averaging $223,900/day.

The U.S. is set to become Europe’s dominant LNG supplier in 2026. IEEFA expects U.S. cargoes to account for two-thirds of Europe’s LNG imports next year, rising to 80% by 2028 while Russia still holds the #2 spot despite EU phase-out efforts.

Running out of barrels. Middle East crude + condensate outages: 782 Mbbls (8 May), heading toward 1,000 Mbbls this month. Production disruptions steady at ~12.5 Mb/d, but Iran-linked constraints + storage limits are tightening the system.

Was interviewed by @MarhelmData today and when asked about the energy investment thesis I told him that you would hold if you believed that the strip price is wrong. Piper Sandler does. #OOTT

$FLNG raises FY2026 guidance as LNG shipping tightens. US-Asia flows remain strong, Qatar disruptions persist, and FLNG expects spot market strength through 2026. LNG freight bulls got more fuel today.

Hormuz-driven LNG disruptions are reviving the coal trade. Asia and Europe are turning to thermal coal, boosting demand for Kamsarmax, Panamax, and Capesize bulkers. Seaborne coal flows hit 115 mt in April 2026, up 6% y/y, only the second monthly increase this year.

IEA estimates a Hormuz closure would cut global oil supply by 12.8 million bpd since February.

TORM plc posts a strong Q1 2026: TCE $286mn vs $214mn y/y, EBITDA $201mn, net profit $122mn vs $63mn. Fleet earned $34,937/day on average, with LR2 at $41,062/day, LR1 at $34,903/day, MR at $32,946/day. 57% Q2 coverage locked at $71,494/day, with every $1,000/day rate move = ~$20mn EBITDA impact.

Spot container rates are edging higher despite weak peak-season confidence: North Asia–USWC assessed at $2,900/FEU (+$100/day) and North Asia–USEC at $3,900/FEU (+$100/day). Market consensus? No one’s talking about surging; everyone’s talking about fuel.

JP Morgan raises Braskem price target by 50%, overweight rating Cites Hormuz disruptions driving global supply tightness for plastics

Marhelm 2026 top picks now up 46% YTD across 18 names Only 1 name is negative YTD 2025 picks continue to rise this year (+33% YTD), with many 100-300% returns among last year's top picks and no negative returns

Seaborne bauxite trade faces a double hit: Guinea may cap 2026 exports at 150mn t vs 178mn t in 2025, potentially freeing ~46 capesizes (≈79% of 2026 deliveries) and pressuring freight rates.