Timothy Sweeney@Tim_Sweeney_TAR
$sofi SOFI'S TROJAN HORSE HINT 6.0
[Again just my opinion...not iinvestment advice]
Size of the Market, Timing and EPS
In 2025, the global amount of stablecoins in circulation was approximately $306 billion, with Latin America accounting for about $70 billion of that amount.
In the next 5 years, Latin America will grow its stablecoin base faster than the United States as a percentage and then level off in 2029 and 2030, reaching up to about $700 billion. In 2026 and 2027 alone, with the right focus, the Latin American stablecoin market could grow $100 billion each year.
The US market, the remaining $236 billion in 2025 won't grow as fast, probably by $150 billion in 2026 and $235 billion in 2027. Growth in the US market is uncertain however because the Clarity Act has not been finalized.
By 2030, the Latin American Market will be more mature at about $700 billion in stablecoins, with the US market between $3 trillion and $4 trillion. The growth in the US market should start growing dramatically in 2028.
WHY START WITH LATIN AMERICA?
Latin America is a more mature market, is growing more rapidly and Galileo has lots of connections as a force to drive SofiUSD adoption there.
Because of the currency instability in Latin America, its markets have fewer regulations and are moving more rapidly than the US market (which is waiting for Clarity) and because it has historically operated with fewer restrictions, this leads to more rapid adoption, often driven by that currency instability.
The US market, by contrast, doesn't have that driver of currency instability, and the politics need more time to work out what the infrastructure will look like.
What percent of the Latin American Market Can Sofi Claim?
The Latin American stablecoin market is currently dominated by Tether (68%) and USDC (24%). By leveraging Galileo’s established fintech network, SoFi could disrupt this space with a fully regulated, bank-issued, U.S. dollar-backed asset more readily designed and embedded into bank operations for remittances and payment, partnering with Galileo's established banking relationships.
Those banking relationships and the shared yield that Sofi can offer in dollars to those Latin American Banks (with the security of Sofi being a licensed national US bank) would jumpstart adoption of Sofi USD. In 3 years, Sofi USD could account for up to 25% or more of that market capitalization. That would amount to roughly $60 billion in Sofi USD or white labeled Sofi USD. This would result in a return of about 1% of the 3.5% current treasury yield related to those stablecoins, roughly $600 million a year in 3 years (end of 2028).
WHAT ABOUT THE US MARKET?
The US market will grow substantially this year, but not until the Clairity act gets passed. Then there will be some regulatory time period that will likely hold up rolling Sofi USD out for more than international payments and remittances.
Sofi can use that time rapidly building out Sofi USD (and white labeled Sofi USD) in Latin America, learning and gaining experience. In addition, the use of Sofi USD by Latin American companies in remittances to US companies will provide Sofi with a built in client list for Sofi USD big business accounts, even if just for remittances and payments initially. (the old foot in the door marketing).
In 3 years, the US market capitalization for stablecoins could be approximately $1.2 trillion. Sofi could shoot for 8%-10% of that market.
So let's assume they get 10% or $120 billion of issued stablecoins for the US market. This would result in a return of about 1% of the 3.5% current treasury yield related to those stablecoins, roughly $1.2 billion a year in 3 years (end of 2028).
EPS RETURN FROM STABLECOINS 2028
If you add the potential $600 million of stablecoins for the Latin American market with the $1.2 billion potential form the US market, that would be $1.8 billion in stablecoin income, just from the net treasury yield.
Take away 20% in costs and you have $1.62 billion in income. Take another 15% off for taxes, and you have about $1.4 billion in net income.
Divide that by the outstanding shares of say 1.35 billion (at that time in the future) and you have added $1.04 in Eps.
Take projected EPS for 2028 of about, just guess, $1.30 from other operations, and you go into 2029 with eps of roughly $2.34.
If you then project that to 2029 earnings, you get about $2.90 a share projected. Now choose your forward multiple:
30 = $87
40 = $116
50 = $145
You can argue that the multiple should drop as it grows and becomes larger and more mature, but then you could argue that, because of the tech and big business growth, it could demand the 50 multiple.
My conclusion would be between 40 and 50, assuming this plays out this way base on my assumptions. Thas makes it a $130 stock sometime in 2029. Yes, it seems aggressive, but it's possible. It does depend a lot on execution.
As I said, this is not investment advice. You should not trade or buy shares based on this information, because these calculations have a lot of assumptions and depend on a lot of factors being executed positively. Macro events could substantially change these projections.
This post only gives you a potential framework on how to look at this business over the long run.
