Mediazona has updated its estimate of Russian KIA, using death records +inheritance data. Many people are still likely to be missed by their very conservative methodology +all the MIA who are presumed to be KIA. IMO, the Russian KIA count is likely already between 450 and 500K.

If the actual KIA number is around 450K, using the known KIA regional distribution data, the regions with the most KIA per 1000 people, like Tuva and Buryatia, have lost around 1% of their total population (and a lot more if you only count males of military/workforce age)

@Rebel44CZ It's not equal for diff regions: I think we know Tuva casualties near 100% bc of huge heroisation of every death in this region (we even knew about some fake obitiaries to beef up numbers, it's very strange but), and we know less for Far East (excl. Yakutia, again heroisation)

@Rebel44CZ And we think that we have very good data from Tatarstan/Bashkortostan, but not for huge cities like Ekb/Chelaybinsk and other

@Rebel44CZ The main problem now is the enormous delay in recognizing the fact of death; recent obituaries from the spring of 2026 about people who died in late 2024 - early 2025. If a person is not recognized as dead, we cannot consider them dead according to our own methodology

@Rebel44CZ Aboit 450k and above: personally, I would probably call this the upper limit, but given the “seasonality” of losses (a sharp increase in late autumn-winter), a) I do not know the real high of the peak in December 2025, b) I adhere to a more conservative estimate 400k for now.