ASB Markets

GDT dairy auction prices gave up some of the previous auction's stonking gains. Still set to be a strong finish to the season, as Chinese demand looks like it will remain firm. Our 20/21 season milk price is $7.60, with $7.30 pencilled in for 21/22 ^NT asb.co/2OVWsC6

NZ jobs growth in Q4 of 0.6% (17k people) was a very pleasant surprise, resulting in 10k fewer unemployed and the unemployment rate falling to 4.9% from 5.3%. The lift in jobs is another sign of how resilient the economy has been - though tourism still feeling the pinch. ^NT

Dairy prices are keeping on a roll in the GDT auctions. The continued strength has prompted us to lift our forecast for Fonterra’s Milk Price for the current (2020/21) season from $7.00 to $7.40 kg/ms, above Fonterra’s current $6.70-$7.30 guidance ^NT

Dairy prices in the GDT auction built very slightly on the good gains from last time. $7/kg farmgate price looking likely.... read more about our milk price view in the Commodities Weekly ^NT asb.co/3nsQ95m

Our latest quarterly forecasts have the economy down 'only' 3% when comparing the end of 2020 with the end of 2019. Quite a resilient outcome, particularly compared to other developed economies e.g. Europe and the UK. ^NT Read more here: asb.co/37sEHzQ

Dairy prices came with a bit of froth on the top overnight, with whole milk prices up 5%. Our $6.75/kg milk price forecast looks very comfortable, though 0.70+ NZD/USD could be a slight headwind late in the season. Read more in the Commodities Weekly: asb.co/2HXtCy0

Who are buying the all houses? First-home buyers and investors are more active. Investor high-LVR lending is up but all high-LVR is still a small share of total lending. Top end of town also strong ^MJ asb.co/3dLwUzY

Dairy prices pulled back in the latest GDT auction, suggesting some precautionary stockpiling was a recent price support.  If prices hold around these levels, that will be consistent with our $6.75/kg forecast, top end of Fonterra's $5.90-$6.90 range.^NT  asb.co/33t3iUS

We've revised up our forecast for Fonterra's 2020/21 milk price to $6.75 from $6.50.  Dairy auction prices have been lifting, though more so in the near-dated contracts - possibly some factoring in of risks of renewed COVID logistics disruption ^NT asb.co/3hqC3hg

Pleasantly strong GlobalDairyTrade auction overnight, suggests our long-held bullish $6.50 milk price forecast could end up with more cream on the top - we'll review after the next auction. ^NT

This morning's GDT dairy auction was a mixed bag for the start of the new season dairy. Encouraging to see the all-important whole milk powder price up. Read more in our Commodities Weekly ^NT asb.co/2XrAUir

Oil spill? Dairy auction prices dip on contagion from oil price plunge. Overall prices down 4.1%; WMP down 3.9%. Result was notably weaker than my expectations (flat) and futures (-2%) ^NP

NZ moving out of lockdown at the end of Monday 27th April. It's a pragmatic decision. New cases are getting low, but at the same time the economy would be hurt by any future relapse to L4. Two more lockdown workdays vs. original timeline buys a lot of extra time. #bubble ^NT

Jury's still out! Despite a positive auction result overnight, we remain cautious on the global dairy market outlook. Read more here: asb.co.nz/content/dam/as… ^NP

Nice little lift! Overnight auction breaks run of 4 consecutive falls. WMP up 2.1%; overall up 1.2%. A touch better than my expectations (flat); notably better than futures (-3%) ^NP

Signs of stabilising? We think WMP prices will be largely unchanged overnight. Tho futures market points to a ca. 3% drop. #WhatsYourPick ^NP

Comfort Food. Read more on my take on this morning's dairy auction & Fonterra's interim results here: asb.co/38XNgBq #ComfortFood ^NP

Dairy auction prices fall by less than expected. WMP down 4.2% vs. ca. -10% expected on futures mkt and our pick of a 7% fall. ^NP

@Guycg77 @ASBBank @PollyannaPenny yes

Following today’s Reserve Bank Official Cash Rate announcement, we’ve passed on the full decrease to our floating home loan rate customers. Read our media release here: asb.co/asb-cuts-home-…

Futures market points to a ca. 10% WMP price drop at overnight auction. I don't expect it to be that steep tho - let's say -7%. Wide range of results possible given speed of recent COVID-19 developments! ^NP