Andrei Klepatch

118 posts

Andrei Klepatch

Andrei Klepatch

@AndreiKlepatch

Система хочет чтобы ты стал дураком

Se unió Ekim 2023
1K Siguiendo58 Seguidores
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
@GaetenD @peterwildeford @NathanpmYoung I think the trading side is much easier to learn. If either of you ever want to chat about process let me know. I got into real money prediction markets actively about a year ago with some background in forecasting and am now up not quite as much as Gaeten but a very real amount.
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Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
decision desk emoji reactions are my favourite social media platform
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Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
@croissanthology I'm not sure I agree with you (the examples you reference with congresspeople and Anthropic seem somewhat different because those entities actually have leverage to push back) but that seems like a reasonable position.
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croissanthology
croissanthology@croissanthology·
@AndreiKlepatch Hmm I was aiming for this spirit, which I don't think feeds them x.com/croissantholog…
croissanthology@croissanthology

This dignity is what "MAGA"ists and trumpists fear the most, btw. You can point out to them that cutting off USAID or bombing elementary schools is horribly unethical, and they'll only laugh at you (because to care about human lives instead of actively uncaring about them is to be a pussy). But if you treat them like they're toddlers who got their hands on dangerous toys that they might hurt themselves with—blabbering buffoons to be removed from position as quickly as possible, whisked away under the arms like you would reposition a cat—you remove the feedback loop they feed on. They relish libs screaming at them and saying "DON'T DO THAT", just so they can do that and make them scream even more. They love hysterics; they'll do stupid things on purpose just to get screamed at. It doesn't matter what they make us lose in the process—American hegemony, THAADs in the Pacific, wealth—so long as they get screamed at, they feel good. What makes them shit their pants is the American dignity that doesn't even bother meeting their eyes or arguing with them bc it correctly sees them as little babies who need to be returned to their daycare and plopped into the legal system that will condemn them calmly and in an orderly manner, not even bothering to engage with them on a rhetorical rather than procedural level, patiently and silently working toward true overarching goals and principles rather than heat-of-the-moment lib-owning. This is the quiet dignity you'll hear sometimes, e.g. at Pam Bondi's congressional hearing, where unable to respond to those basic questions, she lost her shit. Or when reporters sometimes ask basic questions to Trump that he can only answer with annoyed senile bumbling and a pathetic grasping for straws. It's what forced the President to fold back his goons from Minnesota. It's the trembling of the lip that Hegseth has when he reviews the dozens of amicus filings from the Anthropic legal case he instigated because he couldn't control his temper tantrum, after sitting down at his desk and scratching at his undersized shoes. It's the constance and reliability of the American memetic environment that forces JD Vance to place lie on lie on lie till he loses his balance. It's Law with a capital L, that does not care for your thrashing or show of strength because it has one job and will simply do it. Do remember this next time you think of who the Trump administration's natural enemy is! It is not the wokes: the wokes are the fuel they run on, even now. "Harris is for they/them; Trump is for YOU" and all that. No, it is classical liberalism and the Old American. It is the thing that doesn't even play on MAGA's rhetorical field, and comes at them from above like a nonchalant predator (but from its own perspective, is wiping the floor with a mop). The thing that doesn't even give *any* special attention to MAGAists (just as it wouldn't give any special attention to anything else that deviated from Law). The thing that breaks MAGA composure simply by doing as it does, indiscriminantly.

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Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
@croissanthology My point was that presumably the intent of the people behind this change is generating attention, positive or negative, which both you and OP are playing into. It's not a big deal but I was just surprised since I usually find your posts to be quite good.
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croissanthology
croissanthology@croissanthology·
@AndreiKlepatch Click what? I was referring to the 250th anniversary special coin, which indeed does not contain the olive branch for their nickel #circulating" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">usmint.gov/coins/coin-pro…
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Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
This also brings me to having matched my 2025 earnings in first 19% of 2026 which is neat
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Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
Going to get some restful sleep for the first time in a while now that this is over. I was wrong in my initial thesis of it being someone random, correct to later think that it would be Mojtaba, and had some really poor mechanics in between to not realize as much as I should have
Andrei Klepatch tweet media
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Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
Everything else aside, the more I think about it the more "cool" I find the Iranian system of gating political status behind being a scholar of X where what X is doesn't matter too much.
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Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
I've talked about this before but whenever I'm feeling out of whack emotionally I watch combat footage (lately the opening scene of 2000 Meters to Andriivka). I find this to be very powerful as a way to reset and suspect others would benefit from this approach
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Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
Unlike many other domains in PMs it's pretty straightforward to quickly see how good someone is (PNL:volume ratio) and in fact a lot of people choose to make this public by default
Andrei Klepatch tweet media
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Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
Мимо меня протекает денег огромный поток И иногда я себе позволяю из потока сделать глоток
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Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
Mental game around this stuff is really fascinating. It's so arrogant to say that only am I riding an exponential line I also want to keep pumping up the exponent. Infinite opportunity set and skill ceiling. February went well for me but I also took my biggest lifetime loss.
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Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
The constant stream of order fill notifications is kind of addicting
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Benjamin Freeman
Benjamin Freeman@benwfreeman1·
@Domahhhh @mansourtarek_ My assumption is that they are not allowed to comment on ongoing investigations. Also, if they do reveal how they were able to catch an insider trader, I think that might make it easier for an insider trader to evade detection.
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Tarek Mansour
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_·
On Insider Trading. Some say insider information can make prediction markets more accurate. But the same argument can be made for stock markets, where insider trading is banned. Insider trading erodes trust. When people believe a market is unfair, they stop trading. Liquidity dries up, volume collapses, and the market dies. Also, allowing it could incentivize bad actors to leak information they shouldn’t. So Kalshi bans insider trading. How do we police it? Just like stock markets. We spent years building a market surveillance system similar to those used by the NYSE and Nasdaq: 1. Detect: Our surveillance system (called Poirot, after the French detective) flags suspicious patterns in real-time by running trades through pattern recognition models. Insider trades stand out because they often are weird and are bigger in size: people don’t usually commit fraud for $25. 2. Investigate: We have a market regulation team that conducts investigations. They review KYC data, funding sources, prior trading history, and trade rationale. They contact traders when needed. 3. Enforce: If we find wrongdoing, penalties range from warnings and fines, to referrals to the CFTC (and sometimes DOJ) for civil/criminal prosecution. Transparency helps. All activity on Kalshi is public. We also report it to the CFTC daily. Because of that, our traders help by sending us whistleblower tips. To those traders, I know some of you are frustrated that we don't tell you what happens after you send a tip. I get the frustration. Legally, we need to keep our investigations private – but please know your help is super valuable. In the past year, we ran over 200 investigations and froze relevant accounts. Of these, over a dozen have become active cases and several have been referred to law enforcement. Today we go further: 1. Wharton Forensics Lab: We’re bringing Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab Director Daniel Taylor, one of the premier forensics experts in the country, to advise us. He will help us investigate intricate "cousin of the spouse of the dude at Tesla" insider cases. 2. Brian Nelson: We’re adding Brian, former Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, to counsel us on financial compliance and market integrity. 3. Surveillance Audit Committee: We’re forming an independent committee of market integrity experts like Lisa Pinheiro to provide quarterly reports to Brian and publish relevant statistics. 4. System upgrades: We're partnering with Solidus Labs. Their institutional-grade behavior monitoring and pattern recognition tools will be added to our systems. 5. Robert DeNault as Head of Enforcement: Bobby is a force of nature and a self-professed financial crime nerd. He was a white-collar criminal attorney and spent law school studying presidential investigations and the Panama Papers. He’s also a great guy - we love Bobby. All industries have bad actors and no system is perfect, Kalshi's included. But we are committed to improving daily. Lots of work ahead!
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Sneedle
Sneedle@SRamirez68083·
It seems like they’re moving and AWACS towards Iran it’s legit over
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Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
Always interesting how during serious event prep intraday passage of time slows to a crawl while the days themselves accelerate
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こま
こま@komatta_man·
MOCSleaderboard2位で無事MOCSの権利得ました👑ここ3年ぐらいあとちょっとのところで権利逃し続けてきたのでめっちゃ嬉しい!
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Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
Similar deal with Maduro. Booked a win but hard to say how much edge was being realized. It's not like I have a great understanding of past US regime change operations, just seemed obvious we had left the world where he is still in power at the end of the year when strikes began.
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch

It's a bit strange trading elections when you're not an election specialist but I focused on New York and being long Zohran short MOV there went really well for me despite some mistakes after results drop.

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