Andrei Klepatch

134 posts

Andrei Klepatch

Andrei Klepatch

@AndreiKlepatch

опять не спал, уж очень громок праздник жизни.

Katılım Ekim 2023
834 Takip Edilen64 Takipçiler
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
@io1ka I feel like it's probably trivial to get a twitter following if you are half decent at this stuff and post your wins. That was what I observed when I was playing MTG and here both the magnitude of the wins and the possible target audience is much larger
English
0
0
0
28
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
I derive a lot of satisfaction from forecasting "real" subjects (specifically geopolitics). It's so sick to make money by just fundamentally being correct about the state of the world.
Andrei Klepatch tweet media
English
5
0
18
1.5K
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
My good friend Kier would never let me down. Kind of bailed out by low market volume leading to me not getting filled for too much above 60 and the rest for cheap
Andrei Klepatch tweet media
English
0
0
2
56
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
Too much of a coward to get more than a small amount at the bottom, we'll see how it goes.
Andrei Klepatch tweet media
English
2
0
2
83
Max Spero
Max Spero@max_spero_·
I finally muted the Kalshi and Polymarket accounts, and you should consider doing the same. All they post is a drip feed of low-context snippets without no source. Literally zero value gained by seeing these tweets on the timeline
Max Spero tweet media
English
16
5
234
8K
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
My suspicion that in the long run it's -EV to ever bid above 99 continues to grow. Decicent pricing is so tough, it's just impossible to feel the difference between 99 and 99.5. This post is brough to you by the current orderbook for Ohio governor Republican primary.
English
3
0
1
232
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
@lesmothian But depends a lot on exact timelines and definitions of course so 🤷‍♂️ Utopia and total job loss are just such extreme examples.
English
0
0
1
15
Bora Horza
Bora Horza@lesmothian·
@AndreiKlepatch Surprised that I think this way or that I don’t think others do? I guess writing “everything will probably work itself out” isn’t all that interesting so the extremes get more attention haha
English
2
0
1
36
Bora Horza
Bora Horza@lesmothian·
I kind of want to write about my own thoughts on AI predictions because I haven’t seen anybody come close to my view that it will have distortionary effects on the economy and society but it won’t lead to extinction (lol) nor total job loss nor technoutopian “post scarcity”
English
1
0
1
67
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
I expect to look back on my time in Rawlins fondly. On par with Seattle as my favorite residence. Between regular 50mph wind, a railroad cutting through the middle of town, large packs of deer roaming the streets, and a mountain right outside all around a very unique atmosphere.
English
0
0
0
114
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
RIP Ad Astra Per Aspera (July 2025 - May 2026) Was great working with the people involved, many tens of thousands generated through conversation there. Probably going to post a lot more alpha / trade post mortems in public for the time being.
Andrei Klepatch tweet media
English
0
0
0
133
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
Back to high-water mark after grinding through a pretty brutal downswing partially via +20k on shutdown. Very interesting trading experience with how many significant decisions there were over a long time period (I mean just look at the KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G50 graph)
Andrei Klepatch tweet media
English
1
0
1
131
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
I got lost in the mountains after dark today. When I finished my ascent I realized I did not know how to get down. The moon clouding over at the same time as my phone died gave me a good scare but I just started heading straight down through the brush and cliffs and made it out.
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch

In the past I have described the element of hiking that I enjoy as being dynamic terrain really grounding you in your body (the same reason I use fingered socks). So I have derived a lot of positive valence from living in a mountainous steppe with a large peak in my backyard.

English
0
0
2
149
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
the constant subgame of insider, dumb money, or advanced pvp is so fascinating
English
0
0
0
96
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
@GaetenD @peterwildeford @NathanpmYoung I think the trading side is much easier to learn. If either of you ever want to chat about process let me know. I got into real money prediction markets actively about a year ago with some background in forecasting and am now up not quite as much as Gaeten but a very real amount.
English
0
0
0
26
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
decision desk emoji reactions are my favourite social media platform
English
0
0
0
99
Andrei Klepatch
Andrei Klepatch@AndreiKlepatch·
@croissanthology I'm not sure I agree with you (the examples you reference with congresspeople and Anthropic seem somewhat different because those entities actually have leverage to push back) but that seems like a reasonable position.
English
0
0
1
15
croissanthology
croissanthology@croissanthology·
@AndreiKlepatch Hmm I was aiming for this spirit, which I don't think feeds them x.com/croissantholog…
croissanthology@croissanthology

This dignity is what "MAGA"ists and trumpists fear the most, btw. You can point out to them that cutting off USAID or bombing elementary schools is horribly unethical, and they'll only laugh at you (because to care about human lives instead of actively uncaring about them is to be a pussy). But if you treat them like they're toddlers who got their hands on dangerous toys that they might hurt themselves with—blabbering buffoons to be removed from position as quickly as possible, whisked away under the arms like you would reposition a cat—you remove the feedback loop they feed on. They relish libs screaming at them and saying "DON'T DO THAT", just so they can do that and make them scream even more. They love hysterics; they'll do stupid things on purpose just to get screamed at. It doesn't matter what they make us lose in the process—American hegemony, THAADs in the Pacific, wealth—so long as they get screamed at, they feel good. What makes them shit their pants is the American dignity that doesn't even bother meeting their eyes or arguing with them bc it correctly sees them as little babies who need to be returned to their daycare and plopped into the legal system that will condemn them calmly and in an orderly manner, not even bothering to engage with them on a rhetorical rather than procedural level, patiently and silently working toward true overarching goals and principles rather than heat-of-the-moment lib-owning. This is the quiet dignity you'll hear sometimes, e.g. at Pam Bondi's congressional hearing, where unable to respond to those basic questions, she lost her shit. Or when reporters sometimes ask basic questions to Trump that he can only answer with annoyed senile bumbling and a pathetic grasping for straws. It's what forced the President to fold back his goons from Minnesota. It's the trembling of the lip that Hegseth has when he reviews the dozens of amicus filings from the Anthropic legal case he instigated because he couldn't control his temper tantrum, after sitting down at his desk and scratching at his undersized shoes. It's the constance and reliability of the American memetic environment that forces JD Vance to place lie on lie on lie till he loses his balance. It's Law with a capital L, that does not care for your thrashing or show of strength because it has one job and will simply do it. Do remember this next time you think of who the Trump administration's natural enemy is! It is not the wokes: the wokes are the fuel they run on, even now. "Harris is for they/them; Trump is for YOU" and all that. No, it is classical liberalism and the Old American. It is the thing that doesn't even play on MAGA's rhetorical field, and comes at them from above like a nonchalant predator (but from its own perspective, is wiping the floor with a mop). The thing that doesn't even give *any* special attention to MAGAists (just as it wouldn't give any special attention to anything else that deviated from Law). The thing that breaks MAGA composure simply by doing as it does, indiscriminantly.

English
1
0
1
38