Brigham McCown

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Brigham McCown

Brigham McCown

@BAMcCown

Disruptor & Innovator | Domestic & Foreign Policy Futurist | @HudsonInstitute @ISRSngo @Aiinonprofit | Fmr Energy CEO @DoD @USDOT #BigLaw #Prof & other

Dallas & Washington DC Se unió Mart 2012
962 Siguiendo3.7K Seguidores
Brigham McCown
Brigham McCown@BAMcCown·
True.
Monika Palotai@monika_palotai

I think what is said here by Gen. Votel is wrong. I also CENTCOM doesnt really deal with tankers but perhaps USCG does have some experience with commercial shipping. Tankers are not that vulnerable and easy to destroy as some believe. Gen. Votel (ex-CENTCOM) in TWZ says: Tankers are "thin-hulled," strait is "two miles wide," mine hit = instant disabled ship + eco disaster. But realit says otherwise. Reality check: Modern tankers are DOUBLE-HULLED (mandated post-1989 Exxon Valdez via OPA 1990 + IMO rules, phased out single-hulls by 2015 US/international). Even before 1989: Tanker War proof (Operation Earnest Will 1987-88): First convoy, reflagged MV Bridgeton (VLCC) hits Iranian mine → ~50 m² hole, but keeps sailing to Kuwait under own power. US warships? They tucked in BEHIND the tanker for protection. Tankers shielded the Navy!!!!!! (Bridgeton kept going; multiple tankers survived similar hits while escorts took precautions.) USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG-58) hit a bigger mine in 1988 → 15-20 ft hull hole, keel broken, engine room flooded/fire. Navy frigate nearly sank... but CREW saved her (towed/repaired later). Tankers? Even tougher due to size/buoyancy/compartments. Geography: Strait narrowest point ~21 miles (34 km) wide. TSS = 2-mile inbound + 2-mile outbound lanes + buffer (safety rule, not wall). Ships can maneuver outside lanes across miles of navigable water. Multiple "disabled" tankers won't cork a 20-mile passage. Real resilience example: MV Limburg (double-hull VLCC) 2002, Yemen suicide boat attack. 90k bbl spill, massive fire 36+ hrs, 1 dead/12 injured. Abandoned, towed, repaired in Dubai was renamed Maritime Jewel, sailed years more (until ~2018). - LNG carriers thinner-skinned/more vulnerable (vapor risks), but crude oil floats + buoyancy helps tankers.

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Matt Van Swol
Matt Van Swol@mattvanswol·
🚨HOLY CRAP!!! The Atlanta TSA line has now stretched to a stunning 153 minute-wait-time... AT 6AM IN THE MORNING!!!! The line is WRAPPING AROUND BAGGAGE CLAIM!!! THIS IS PURE INSANITY!!!!!!
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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, it’s still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) that’s a ~$2.5 billion windfall since the war started. And the $$$ keeps going up. I don’t believe Tehran ever thought that would be a possibility when it war gamed any conflict with the US and/or Israel. Surely they assumed that if they closed the strait for others, it would be closed for them, too.
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Brigham McCown
Brigham McCown@BAMcCown·
@ArthurLHerman Luckily I didn’t have to do that but I get the sense everyone’s had enough with the “shutdown.”
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Richard N. Haass
Richard N. Haass@RichardHaass·
The oil the US is allowing iran to sell is too small to stabilize energy markets, but it is large enough to help iran fight the war & raise its price for ending it. truly misguided. open.substack.com/pub/richardhaa…
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Brigham McCown
Brigham McCown@BAMcCown·
Check out @WSJopinion : #PotomacWatch quoting work by @AiiNonProfit wsj.com/podcasts/opini… Here's an excerpt: "Welcome back to Potomac Watch. I'm Kim Strassel here with Will McGurn and Allysia Finley. We had another editorial this week that talked about yet another vulnerability in California, not necessarily one the federal government has moved on yet, but there was this new analysis by the Alliance for Innovation and Infrastructure. And it's talking here about California's refining capacity and what has changed there since the 1980s. These very costly tax regulations such as its cap and tax program have made it very uneconomic to try to run a refinery there. Declining refining capacity has been causing shortfalls and price spikes."
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Ralph Schoellhammer
Ralph Schoellhammer@Raphfel·
Just a reminder that in China, there is only energy addition, not an energy transition.
Ralph Schoellhammer tweet media
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Brigham McCown
Brigham McCown@BAMcCown·
Yes, and this divergence will continue. We all say #oil is global and fungible, but that’s not completely true. Differences in gravity (density) and sulphur content (sweet/sour), coupled with the geographic limitations of #infrastructure, are real, and the markets are just beginning to figure that out. What you’re seeing here is that reality. Certain regions will be affected much more severely than others, with North America being the least affected. But this is only half the story. While crude oil isn’t completely interchangeable, refined products like gasoline (petrol), diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, etc., are… While that takes care of ½ of the issue, we’re still constrained by #pipeline and #maritime infrastructure; yet some move daily, and more will be moving in the near term. That’s where analysts should be looking.
zerohedge@zerohedge

And now we have three oil markets: Asia (Oman oil at $167), Brent ($113) and US (WTI $97)

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