Daniel Seleanu

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Iran's Foreign Ministry says that talks for a permanent deal with the US will only start after these MoU clauses are fulfilled: - Permanent end to war in Lebanon - Complete lifting of the US blockade - US issuing waivers for Iranian oil - Releasing Iran's frozen assets

MORE: The final MoU is basically unchanged from the version provided to Bloomberg on June 16, except for text changes in clauses one and five that Iran reportedly requested. ⬇️ Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Fars News reported on June 15 that Iran had earlier secured important changes to the draft MoU. These changes included the addition of the phrase “guaranteeing sovereignty and respect for the territorial integrity of Lebanon” to the first clause, references to a joint Iranian-Omani maritime services administration in the Strait of Hormuz to the fifth clause, and an addition that the MoU would bar fee collection in the strait for 60 days, also in the fifth clause. All three of these changes are reflected in the version briefed to US media but not in the earlier version leaked to Bloomberg (changes highlighted below in bold). IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency noted on June 17—before the signing and the briefing to US media—that Bloomberg’s reported text was inaccurate and had “numerous flaws” related to Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. Top Iranian officials are using these changes to imply that they have satisfied their key war aims of controlling the Strait of Hormuz and preserving Hezbollah. Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said that Iran would retain control over the Strait of Hormuz and that vessels transiting the waterway should pay service fees for safe navigation of the strait. Iran continues to be the only threat against commercial shipping in the strait. Aref said that the Strait of Hormuz “belongs to Iran” and that its management will remain Iran’s responsibility. Clause 5 indicates that Iran would need to negotiate with the Gulf Arab states to ensure its management of the Strait, however, and it remains unlikely that the Gulf Arab states would acquiesce to Iranian demands without Iranian coercion. The fact that Iran can negotiate the status of an international waterway is nonetheless an erosion of long-established international law and norms enshrined in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

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Here's how I see the draft Iran MOU breaking down: US concessions 1. Ceasefire, including in Lebanon 2. Lift the naval blockade 3. Withdraw forces from surrounding area within 30 days 4. Ensure financing of $300 billion for Iranian reconstruction fund 5. Commit to ending “all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran” 6. Waivers for oil-related exports 7. Commit to unfreezing Iranian assets “in light of the progress of negotiations” Iran concessions 1. Ensure that Strait of Hormuz is returned to pre-war traffic levels within 30 days 2. "Reiterate" that it will never produce nuclear weapons and “maintain the status quo” on its nuclear program (Iran, of course, has already long said it’s not producing nukes.)