FCPS Closure Odds
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FCPS Closure Odds
@FcpsOdds
Delivering NOVA’s most reliable school closure forecasts! FCPS alum | Not affiliated with FCPS | Loves Snow Instagram: @fcpsclosureodds Link in bio for more!




Tornado Watch DROPPED early for the bulk of the DC region. Was set to expire at 7pm originally, but with the current line advancing east towards the Bay...there should be a several hour lull in the action here. Still expecting another line later tonight with the front crossing. SPC notes: "The tornado watch will be cancelled in the wake of this line of storms. Some threat for damaging convective winds with the front this evening still persists, but will be handled with an additional watch later this evening if necessary."




All schools and offices will be closed tomorrow, March 16, 2026. All after school activities are cancelled. Students and staff will engage in asynchronous remote learning, with submission of assignments counting toward attendance.

A VERY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK is likely tomorrow... Widespread damaging winds between 60-80 MPH and several tornadoes will be possible all day, with semi-discrete and discrete supercells producing the risk of tornadoes and wind, while a line of storms develops out west, with widespread damaging winds likely. Pictured is the damaging wind risk, and in the purple, a 60% CHANCE of damaging winds exists within a 25-mile radius. Anywhere in the red, pink, and purple, could see numerous to widespread damaging winds on Monday. We don't see events like this often, especially in March. Stay tuend for updates and spread the word on this very concerning threat.



Mid-Atlantic gang – the potential exists for a regional tornado episode on Monday, March 16. This reminds me a bit of February 23-24, 2016. Long-time residents will recognize the day. Now is the time to begin reviewing your severe weather plan... actually. We get 1-2 "tornado days" a year. We anticipate Monday will be one of them. (@MatthewCappucci spends a lot of time in the Midwest and on the Plains; the environment Monday will be rather similar to what he sees out west.) We're still 4 days out from the event, but the "synoptic," or broad-scale picture, is somewhat concerning. We'll have a potent upper-air disturbance taking on a "\", or backslash shape, akin to a soccer player kicking a ball. That follow-through, or "negative tilt," gives the system more kick. It will be just warm and humid enough for us to build some thunderstorm fuel, ESPECIALLY if the front slows down. Some of our high-resolution computer models are depicting "prefrontal" storms, or lone, discrete supercells popping ahead of an incoming squall line. With robust shear, or changing winds with height, and a jet stream screaming overhead, these storms will rotate. IF any storms form ahead of the main line, they'll become spinning supercells with hail/tornado potential. Then a fierce squall line will come through with damaging gusts and a few embedded tornadoes. A lot can change, but for now, we'd like to start raising awareness of a potentially significant severe weather episode. We'll have more in the days ahead.













