Hunting Alphas | 5-Min Stock Pitches

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@BRICSinfo At this point, I think the market just doesn't care about these updates from Trump.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US President Trump says the Iranians desperately want to make a deal.

Good point here about how supply-side drivers are generally more powerful in cyclical industries. Expanding on that: 1. You can get constrained supply in ultra high demand periods where all your capacity is sold out. In other words, constrained supply follows a demand increase. HBM/AI memory is probably in this category. 2. You can also get constrained supply for other reasons. Eg. Aluminum smelter closures in the EU due to longer term carbon policies. Or probably conventional NAND right now as the constraint is more due to supply being re-routed to AI memory rather than a big demand increase. The second scenario typically leads to a higher price floor in the cyclical sector, making it more attractive for sustained upside.

Just stumbled across an old podcast by @RodriGo_ethe investing-city.com/p/ep-118-rodri…

@jukan05 Checks out with my secondary research too:

Bernstein: Early checks on 2Q26 memory contract negotiations suggest conventional DRAM contract prices could rise another 60% QoQ, while NAND could increase by 70–75%. * These figures are above most existing sell-side ASP increase forecasts.

@The_AI_Investor Yes, and NAND memory specialists like Kioxia $285.JP are doing even better. Elevator Pitch:

Memory stocks are on fire Are they breaking out ?

A super-El Niño is projected for 2026. This will have serious consequences for Asian equities:

@jukan05 I'm very bullish Kioxia $285.JP Recently did a 5-Minute Pitch on it Here's elevator version:

SK hynix is estimated to own roughly a 33–34% stake in Kioxia. Kioxia is up 244% YTD.

New 5-Minute Pitch on Kioxia Holdings $285.T/$285.JP: - NAND prices are expected to continue increasing - The JV extension with SanDisk can help improve the revenue profile - There is an opportunity for Kioxia to gain market share - Securing long term DRAM access can reducee gross margin volatility - Kioxia Holdings valuations seem fair to attractive - The charts show a classic breakout from a horizontal bull flag Link to read👇

@Mr_Derivatives The earnings expectations are so high that the PE multiple compresses. P hasn't increased as much because the market still prices this as a cyclical company.

$MU What the….?!

@cryptorover Not too surprising. I've been saying it is net progress toward de-escalation compared to the start of last week: x.com/HuntingAlphas/…

💥BREAKING: Second round of US-Iran talks could be held "within days," extension of the two-week ceasefire being discussed - WSJ.

@antibearthesis What? Where are you getting that from?!

@HuntingAlphas They’re expecting 54% earnings growth cagr next 3 years it is SEVERELY undervalued

$NOW and $ADBE look very extremely undervalued. Forward P/E: ServiceNow - 19x Adobe - 9x Forward revenue growth: ServiceNow - 21% Adobe - 11% FCF margins: ServiceNow - 36% Adobe - 46% Which one is the better buy right now?

@rubicon59 Scale up refers to adding more resources to an existing computing cluster and connecting the different pieces together. Scale out refers to adding more computing clusters and connecting all these clusters together. $CRDO is in scale up with its AECs' within-rack connectivity

@HuntingAlphas Well, $CRDO is not a player in scale up. So that’s that.

Odd, no one here is bashing $CRDO lately after stock is up a lot recently. Copper good now?

@moninvestor Electric utilities are one way to play it I recently published a 5-Minute Pitch on Sempra $SRE

If you are investing in companies like $IREN, $CRWV, or $NBIS, your entire thesis sits on capturing part of this hyperscaler-driven expansion. The Big Four (Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft) plan to invest over $600bn in capital expenditures for 2026, about a 62% increase from the record $388bn in 2025 spending. > Amazon: $200bn in CapEx projected for 2026, versus $125bn last year. > Google: $175 to $185bn , up from $91bn in 2025. > Meta: $115 to $135bn for 2026, up from $72bn in 2025. > Microsoft: $110 to $120bn in 2026, compared to $90bn last year. Industry estimates suggest total AI infrastructure spend could exceed $1 trillion over the next decade. Power demand from data centers alone is projected to more than double by 2030. This chart from McKinsey & Company shows how quickly data center demand is growing in the U.S., and more importantly, how the structure of that demand is changing over time. Overall demand is expected to compound at roughly 10–13% annually, reaching more than 30 GW by 2030. That is a massive increase in absolute power usage, and it reflects the physical reality of AI. More compute requires more electricity, and there is no way around that. This is why power availability has become one of the central bottlenecks in AI infrastructure.

@babyfolio If you're missing something, I am too: x.com/HuntingAlphas/…

The more I look into $CRDO, the better it looks, deep in the AI supply chain. Massive revenue growth ✅ Founder led with skin in the game ✅ Relatively cheap valuation ✅ Going into optics ✅ Profitable ✅ Am I missing anything? I like $ALAB too, but it's not as cheap.

@MMMTwealth They're diversifying their product mix too via ZF Optics, which is supposedly 1,000x more reliable than commodity laser-based optics, consuming half the power. My broader view on $CRDO:

$CRDO is quickly becoming one of the more asymmetric bets in the market. $CRDO isn't a pure photonics play by any means but we've been told more than enough times that AEC's aren't going anywhere anytime soon. $AVGO CEO: "The final, final straw is when you can't do it well in pluggable optics. And of course, when you can't do it even in copper, then you're right. You go to silicon photonics, and it will happen. We're ready for it. Just saying, not anytime soon." $NVDA CEO: "In the future, we need more copper cable capacity, and we also need more optical chip and CPO capacity." $CRDO at 13x NTM sales and 21x NTM EBITDA and 27x NTM PE is very cheap when you have: -> Revenue growing 205% in FY26 -> EBITDA growing 380% in FY26 -> EPS growing 373% in FY26 Yes, there's still the long-term risk that photonics dominates but if you're bullish on the AI buildout for the next 5+ years... $CRDO will remain a core part of that buildout. And $CRDO potentially doesn't deserve the premium that a stock like $LITE trades at because the LONG-TERM "leadership" status (I'm talking +3-5 years from now) isn't as strong. But even with that, $CRDO is trading at more than a 50% discount on EBITDA and 2.5x cheaper on EPS. Imo, the disconnect should be nowhere near that.

Indeed. They've pulled forward production of ZF Optics by 6 months and you can see it in the purchase commitment numbers too. "Our ZeroFlap AECs deliver up to 1,000x better reliability than commodity laser-based optics, while consuming roughly half the power." - CEO William Brennan in the Q3 FY26 earnings call

@JSpitTrades This fact is what most optics degenerates are missing is that the cash cow of $CRDO will finance their optics business while others will be losing money. Looks like a hybrid play in the space. The copper vs. Optics narrative is a worn-out rag.

Credo $CRDO getting interesting... Credo was one of the early true market leaders of this bull cycle. +245% in 2024 +114% in 2025 But the market has shifted its focus to photonics plays like $LITE $COHR $CIEN etc. But the interconnects market won't be a winner take all. Copper-based is still needed in most AI clusters. CEOs of $NVDA and $AVGO had both recently confirmed this. Credo's underlying business is also still booming. Its sales grew 201% last quarter. EPS grew 328% CRDO is projected to report 153% sales and 188% when it shares its Q1 report. TLDR: CRDO's fundamentals remain stellar. And yet, CRDO is trading 32% off ATHs, after being down as much as 60%. During the recent pullback, CRDO found support and bounced off early 2025 highs. It's now back above its 50-day moving average. However, it still needs to reclaim its 50-week and 21-week moving averages. Basically, CRDO is back on my radar, along with its counter part $ALAB

Credo's $CRDO copper AECs are still the de-facto standards for data center network connections b/w components in a rack (within 7 meters or 23 feet): "If you are running... your own AI data centers and designing it, architecting it, you truly want larger and larger domains or clusters... and you really want to connect XPUs to XPUs directly where you can... And the best way to do that is to use direct attach copper. That's the lowest latency, lowest power, and lowest cost. So you want to keep doing that, especially in scale-up, as long as possible. In scaling out, we're past that. We use optical. That's fine. But I'm talking about scaling up in a rack, in a cluster domain. You really want to use direct-attach copper as long as you can." - Broadcom's $AVGO CEO Hock Tan in the Q1 FY26 earnings call My thesis summary on $CRDO:

@metapreston I haven't used Threads and don't know much about it What's different about it? Why is it gaining vs X?

Threads is doing to Twitter what Instagram did to Snapchat. I never thought this would be possible

A lot of the NAND memory giants are investing big in Nanya Tech TPE 2408 to secure DRAM capacity I see Kioxia Holdings (JP 285A) as a more compelling bet though: - NAND prices are expected to continue increasing - The JV extension with SanDisk can help improve the revenue profile - There is an opportunity for Kioxia to gain market share - Securing long term DRAM access can reduce gross margin volatility - Kioxia Holdings valuations seem fair to attractive - The charts show a classic breakout from a horizontal bull flag

Going even more bullish on Taiwan: Started a position in Nanya Tech (TPE 2408) on the current 35% dip. Seems like a super easy/obvious long at these levels? TLDR: - $SNDK, Sk Hynix, $CSCO investing in Nanya is huge, funding capex/growth - They'll smash earnings next week - Assymetric pricing power given DRAM shortage Stock is down 35% mainly due to $2.5B capital raise from $SNDK, SK Hynix, $CSCO at end of March. To fund: - building manufacturing facilities in Taipei - acquisition of production equipment for 10nm-class process nodes Huge bullish signals all round when those names are going to Nanya to secure reliable DRAM supply. A couple near term catalysts: 1/ Earnings report next week. Management guided for 10%-20% avg selling price increases for Q1. But DRAM contract prices are somewhere at the 90% levels now. So expecting significant upward revisions for FY revenue + earnings. 2/ Q2 2026 Pricing jumps. The supply-demand imbalance will reach a critical inflection point in the Q2 2026. Resulting in a sharp jump in contract prices that could exceed the gains seen in Q1. Trendforce projects that DRAM prices will jump an additional 63% in Q2 2026 given the depleted inventories.

@jukan05 Samsung and SK Hynix (28%/13% of NAND market shares) are also not as focused on NAND capacity expansion But Kioxia $285A is investing to 2x NAND capacity in 5 years So it is not just NAND pricing tailwinds but market share growth too I have a 5-Minute Pitch on Kioxia

Kioxia: There Won't Be a Second Shock [Daishin Securities Semiconductor / Ryu Hyung-geun] This is a Kioxia FY3Q25 (CY4Q25) Review. We maintain our existing view that a surprise will emerge from NAND. This value needs to be further reflected in Korean semiconductor stock prices. We maintain our Buy recommendations on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Kioxia FY3Q25 (CY4Q25) Review: Please Forget Last November's Disaster - Results were in line with consensus. The guidance was the surprise. The company issued guidance significantly above consensus, creating a markedly different atmosphere from last November's earnings release. - Throughout the recent upcycle, Kioxia's high revenue concentration toward a single customer has been a double-edged sword. Pre-negotiated long-term contracts meant products were supplied at prices below market rates, which was the key reason behind Kioxia's lower ASP growth relative to peers. - Recently, the company appears to have aggressively leveraged the tight supply-demand environment to push through price revisions. Starting from CY1Q26, the revised pricing policy is expected to take effect (estimated ~50% QoQ ASP increase for the North American customer in CY1Q26). This marks the moment Kioxia breaks free from its legacy constraints and the moment mobile NAND ASPs normalize. - Opportunities are also expanding on the server side. On top of a favorable market backdrop, competitiveness in high-capacity products of 128TB and above is expected to drive outperformance. NAND Is Just as Strong as DRAM - AI inference is strengthening the role of storage and driving higher content per unit. In addition, new products are set to be unveiled. At the upcoming GTC 2026 event, new products based on a next-generation solution (Gen 6 Controller) are expected to be announced. - The supply-demand balance is tightening to historically unprecedented levels. While concerns over weak set-level demand persist, opportunities in the server segment are more than offsetting them. - Meanwhile, supply discipline is strengthening across the industry. The prevailing approach is to respond through conversion investments and product mix shifts—which carry lower depreciation burdens—rather than new capacity additions. This signals a management philosophy increasingly centered on profitability and long-term supply-demand stability. - As a result, NAND ASPs are surging. 1Q26 NAND ASP is expected to rise in the mid-to-high 40% range QoQ, and we believe we will soon see operating margins reach the 50%+ levels that marked the previous peak. $SNDK $MU