Rodrigo Benedetti

The selling started in Australia, with blue chips like Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Coal selling off 10%, by the time European markets opened, the Hang Seng was tumbling despite Chinese banks buying stocks trying to contain the bleeding.

@randominv3str @FriendlyCapMgmt Yeah, in this case, Chinese mainlanders with a Singapore visa. How many are there in TIGR? Probably ok to buy the dip and sell for a bounce, but zero confidence on what the medium or long term path is.

@RodriGo_ethe @FriendlyCapMgmt From Claude the HK profits of $TIGR are basically 0 since they are in growth mode. So the current profits are from Singapore + maybe Australia? Idk stock feels cheap even if you assume a full retreat from Hong Kong is necessary. Might be different for $FUTU

So $TIGR in total has to pay $60m USD (less than 10% of cash balance) and shut down ca 6bn AuM (10% of total)… In exchange the regulatory overhang is now lifted for good and the stock is at like 5x PE with a few bucks of cash per share to spare? Do I see this right?

@FriendlyCapMgmt If you don't know wtf are you doing holding that stock? It's the only thing that matters, how far china wants to crack down on that practice and how much AUM is there for TIGR.

@RodriGo_ethe I do not know. Do you think the hit to AuM will be more than 6b?

@ArmsGarrett LOL

This market is absurd, so many AI pretended plays are going vertical. QCOM? sure NOK? just a meme DELL? lol I guess if peak margins and peak multiple work for STRL PWR etc... why not? I think we are gonna see a demand hiccup as the recent price hikes make budgets get downsized.

@GavinSBaker @GroundbreakerRe @jimcramer Damn, he deleted. I got to know CIEN because of you Gavin! The point is that when people want to learn about space datacenteres the trade might be too hot.

@GroundbreakerRe @RodriGo_ethe @jimcramer Funny chart. Although these posts from 5/11/22, 4/1/25 and 3/31/26 have aged ok and they are all either near a low or at the low. Good luck!

We need @GavinSBaker to go into a quiet period

There's a guy on $ubstack named Shitty Situations with a banger post for anyone in credit; all the ways people lie to you and credit can blow up in your face. Some of my favorites:

yep, thats why germany's economy is doing so well

Lol Short sellers are fighting the US federal government...

@dopamine_uptake Have you heard of CLPT?

who are the best medtech specialists on here?

@dopamine_uptake Spot the one odd out

not sure what caused the complex to get trashed so badly given fundamentals have not changed - was a very good entry point for some beaten up stuff

Liking the dip here in some of my EU defence faves

@AyusoValue It is true, especially that growing and making money is a sin. Society is rotten and the only solution is to save yourself tbh

@RodriGo_ethe What I care about is what is said about Europe, which is, sadly, very true in my opinion, regardless of who says it.

Ce n'est pas seulement la France, l'Europe est gravement malade.

@dopamine_uptake Panmure! they are going the way of the dodo

@AyusoValue In any case, California taxes are more brutal than the average europe... That's why people move to Texas and Florida

@AyusoValue I think i'ts a fake account

Take a look -- it is a paper meant to shake up the debate in Berlin, and ultimately in Brussels 6/6 cer.eu/publications/a…

@pernasresearch Haven't read the report, but if the short book is as volatile as the market in downturns but goes up less than the market in normal times (and still losses money due to the market being up a lot) that's super valuable, it allows you lever longs and rebalance during crashes

Just read Verdad’s new piece and it’s going to sound like I’m picking on them, but I’m really not. This way of thinking is cancerous and it permeates the entire investing community. The idea that it is acceptable to run a structurally negative EV short book simply to reduce “volatility drag” is insane to me. The only negative EV asset that might occasionally belong in a portfolio is a hedge. Not a permanent negative EV short book. Volatility drag is real, but the framework becomes practically irrelevant when you start to move away from relatively symmetrical return distributions. As an active manager, your portfolio should be anything but symmetrically distributed. You should be trying to maximize exposure to positive skew and right-tail outcomes while protecting against downside. Having a structurally negative EV short book just to dampen volatility is optimizing for smoothness instead of optimizing for wealth creation. For active managers, long-term wealth creation is heavily driven by right-tail outcomes. A permanent short book mechanically reduces your exposure to those outcomes in exchange for the-sometimes-fulfilled-promise of a smoother return path.

@CapitalCathedra I take this is built using historical data, but what are they actually betting on?

@RodriGo_ethe SDIV is a great short that David also shorts in ORR. The long term absolute returns are barely positive even with the dividend. HFND borrow rate is 3-4% but it's basically a low beta product that has underperformed (long corp bond futures and emerging and value).

@CapitalCathedra Ha you said it yourself, do you like the fixed income nature of the product? it's maybe offsetting SDIV short in that sense... how's borrow on HFND? I don't exactly understand how they track the HF gross returns tbh.

@RodriGo_ethe Thx for making the quarterly letter public. Any thoughts on this model portfolio I constructed (yes, I know that Long STRC is the craziest part)? portfolioslab.com/portfolio/fsv4…