Rodrigo Benedetti
9.7K posts

Rodrigo Benedetti
@RodriGo_ethe
Say no to multiple arbitrage. https://t.co/PKZxXdYUJp



"NVDIA valuation falls to lowest since 2019" $NVDA's forward PE is 18x $MU's is 6.5x At this point in the stories, the only material difference is $NVDA is currently a near-monopoly (or arguably a duopoly with $GOOG), while $MU is in a tight 3-way oligopoly.

Be SemiAnalysis: - Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash. Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted - Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.

Iran conflict is sad. US won the war and RoW would rather fold to terrorists and pay ransom than stand up for themselves. We should never have been in it but pathetic our allies are willing to concede freely navigable high sees and simply grab their ankles.



There’s a claim circulating that global inventories have dropped by ~1,000 million barrels. Where does that number actually come from? It looks like someone simply assumed 10 mb/d over 100 days and back-filled the math, and then others kept repeating it. That doesn´t make it true.

I am posting this (in plain English) so I can quote it later. Memory, the “gold” of AI, is selling off at single digit multiples. It takes extra high IQ to mess it up. $DRAM


I don't know what will happen with $SOC, but to think the Exxon sold (stuffed with debt) that field in california to a SPAC (with a lot of red flags in governance) when oil prices were quite high and that somehow they got the short end of the deal is just amusing.

2 of the 3 biggest memory makers in the world are telling us “this time is different” as we watch this industry shift from cyclical to secular which should come with a multiple rerating as these two companies plus Micron trade at an average NTM P/E multiple below 8x with 80-85% gross margins and 70-75% net income margins. The biggest question/risk has been where memory prices go over the next few years but $MU management says the supply constraints will last until 2028 or longer and these companies are now locking in long term agreements with their biggest customers which provides visibility for shareholders. It’s these LTAs that are likely giving the memory giants the confidence to start doing their own capex to expand capacity at rates we’ve never seen before. I still think every investor needs to own at least 1 of these 3 companies… or keep it simple and just buy $DRAM which also gets you Sandisk, Seagate and Kioxia

The market is telling the hyperscalers no more money for you. You are reckless. These companies think they are paragons and fabulous stewards of our capital. If that's the case why are they spending more money on the lowest part of the tech food chain?










